AFC Championship: Why The Steelers are heading to Tampa

Fittingly, the Steelers and Ravens face off on Sunday at Heinz Field in the AFC Championship game. The two bitter rivals will meet for the third and final time this season, with a ticket to the Super Bowl on the line. Here's why, in my opinion, the Steelers will be headed to Tampa.

Reason #1: The Steelers have already beaten the Ravens twice, so they have proven to be able to win. The wins were both extremely close (a combined 7 points), but a win is a win, no matter how you slice it. Not to mention when a team sweeps another team in the regular season and meets them in the playoffs, the team that swept has won 11 of 18 times. 

Reason #2: Rookie Joe Flacco has been calm and collected during the playoffs, but he had a QB rating of 53.4 in two games versus the Steelers, and was sacked 7 times. In his two playoff wins so far, Flacco has been extremely average, with a QB rating of 59.1 versus the Dolphins (9 for 23, zero TDs or INTs) and 89.4 (11-22). Those numbers are far from fantastic, but Flacco has done a good job protecting the ball and he has been sacked ZERO times. The Steelers have brought pressure against Flacco in the two matchups. In the first game at Heinz Field, Flacco was good in the 1st half, but struggled in the 2nd half, the key play being a lost fumble for a Steelers touchdown. In the 2nd matchup, Flacco was bad: 11-28 with 2 interceptions. He was also sacked twice. The Ravens utilized an unbalanced line against James Harrison, and you can bank on Dick Labeau having a way to break that. Flacco will need to be on his game on Sunday, because he was very mediocre in Tennessee and his touchdown came on a deep ball. If the Steelers cover the deep ball to Clayton, they will be in good shape.

Reason #3: The Steelers offensive line has finally resembled a solid unit. Throughout the season, the offensive line has failed to produce a push off of the line of scrimmage and has failed to produce a reliable pocket for Ben Roethlisberger. The result: 46 sacks, a 3.8 yards per carry average for Willie Parker, and a 22nd ranked offense. Against the Chargers, the offensive line had arguably its bes

t game in 2 seasons, as it opened up holes for Parker and gave Roethlisberger time to throw (he was sacked once, on a cornerback blitz that Mewelde Moore failed to pickup). Parker had 5.4 yards a carry and ended up with 146 total yards. Rarely was he stopped in the backfield and he had numerous 10+ yard carries. He will most likely not have another 100 yard day against the stout Ravens defense, but a solid 75-80 yards from Parker may be enough to give the offense balance. Also, in pass protection, the line has improved mightily down the stretch, which allows Roethlisberger to get in a rhythm. Not to mention offensive coordinator Bruce Arians finally decided to utilize the I-formation and quick, easy throws, both of which moved the ball well for the Steelers.

Reason #4: The Baltimore Ravens have not had a rest since week 2, which wasn't much of a rest. Starting tailback Le'Ron McClain has

 powered the tough running game, but he is banged up and no doubt beginning to get worn down. Terrell Suggs (T-Sizzle) injured his shoulder against the Titans, and will not be at 100% on Sunday. A reduced role of Suggs is a huge factor in the Ravens pass rush, as he led them in sacks with 8 during the regular season. How much will fatigue play in the game? The Steelers had their bye week during the season and had another before the playoffs. They were clearly rested against the Chargers, the most obvious example being Willie Parker, who missed most of the season with injuries.

Reason #5: The Heinz Factor. Heinz Field was absolutely rocking last Sunday and it will be this weekend as well. Flacco has played in Miami and Tennessee, both good fanbases, but Heinz Field is a different demon. Ravens fans were able to infiltrate Nashville and Miami; do not expect the same in Pittsburgh. How will Flacco respond to such a hostile environment on such a big stage? I don't expect him to get flustered, but what if he's forced to turnovers early? And, of course, the other Heinz: Hines Ward. No one has gotten in the Ravens' heads more than Hines Ward. He hits hard, he makes big catches, and his smile makes defenses want to destroy him (and even put a bounty on him!). The problem is, they haven't been able to, and Ward has had key catches/plays in both matchups: the first game, he drew a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Ravens linebacker Jarrett Johnson and in the 2nd game, he had 3 enormous catches on the Steelers game-winning drive, all of which turned out to be first downs. Another interesting tidbit: Hines Ward is now the Steelers all-time leader in playoff receptions. Come playoff time, Hines comes to play.