Get pressure on Ben Roethlisberger. In their previous matchup, the Chargers got to Roethlisberger a total of 4 times. They will have to not only repeat their performance, but improve on it. Roethlisberger completed 31 of 41 pass attempts for 308 yards and moved the ball on the Chargers' defense all game long. He had plently of time on the majority of his throws and he did not turn the ball over once. The 31st-ranked pass defense of the Chargers will have to step up in the cold Pittsburgh weather and cover Roethlisberger's numerous weapons - Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, Mewelde Moore, Nate Washington (not to mention backup tight end Matt Spaeth, who had 6 catches in week 11 with Miller sidelined with an injury). The 3-4 defense will have to bring pressure and bring it often. In the wildcard matchup with the Colts, the Chargers sacked Peyton Manning a mere one time (though it was an important sack). They allowed 310 passing yards to the Colts' QB and NFL MVP, even though the Colts had a 2:1 pass-run ratio and one of the worst rushing attacks in the league. Which leads to my next key for the Chargers.
Stop the Steelers running game. It is no secret that the Steelers want to run the ball. They averaged 105.6 yards a game during the regular season, but torched the Browns def
ense for 176 yards in the week 17 blowout. In that game, Willie Parker finally looked like his old self and Mewelde Moore continued to prove why he was an excellent pickup with 33 total yards (6 yards per touch). In week 11, Parker had 115 yards rushing on 25 carries. The Steelers dominated time of possession because of their adequate rushing attack. The Chargers are going to have to stop the running game so that their pass rushers can tee off on the Steelers pourous pass protection and force turnovers. If the Steelers can run the ball at will, it will be a long day for the Chargers defense.Avoid 3rd and long. With Landanian Tomlinson most likely out with an injury (at best, he plays, but is nowhere near 100% percent, and likely not used much, if at all), the Chargers will look to tiny Darren Sproles to handle the load. He did an outstanding job in the wild card game, but the Colts' rush defense is near the bottom of the league; the Steelers were 2nd in the NFL in rush defense. The Chargers will have to use Sporles, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates (even if he is not 100%) to manage each set of downs. 3rd and long is a bad idea against the #1 defense in the NFL. In situations where the Chargers will be forced to pass, Steelers defensive coordinator will bring anyone and everyone at the NFL's #1 rated passer in Phillip Rivers. Rivers was ineffective in the week 11 meeting, completing 15 of 26 passes for zero touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He cannot afford to be turnover prone on Sunday. James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley - the Steelers' franchise record holders for most sacks by 2 players in one season - are due for big games; if Rivers is faced with numerous 3rd and longs, Woodley and Harrison will be running at Rivers all game long. To avoid long 3rd downs, look for the Chargers to utilize the draw play - the kyrptonite of an over-aggressive defense. Tashard Choice of the Cowboys and Kevin Faulk of the Patriots used the draw plays to great success, and other teams are beginning to use these kind of plays (along with screens) to force the defense into over-pursuing. Sproles' speed will be key in these kind of plays. He's fast enough to get open quickly and run free after the catch. Look for the Steelers to have Troy Polamalu somewhat shadow him throughout the game - he may be the only player on defense quick enough to shut him down.
If the Steelers want to play in the AFC Championship game, the following themes will be very important:
Limit the turnovers. I'm looking at you, Big Ben. Ben has a knack for turnovers, given his nature of trying to make a big play as much as possible. He's finally learning to check down to his running backs, a trait that greatly cuts down on the interceptions. In week 11, Ben was more than fine - he passed for more than 300 yards and made plays all game long. He will need a repeat performance, especially if the running game never materializes. He has to be smart with the football and take what the defense gives him. The offensive line will have to give him time to throw and Bruce Arians has to gameplan effectively. He has to get Roethlisberger in a rhythm early on with short passes out of the bunch formation and he has to get Heath Miller involved. If Roethlisberger can get in a rhythm, he is tough to stop. He is less turnover-prone when he is throwing the ball short with safe patterns. Note: This is assuming Ben is healthy enough to play, and I think he will be.
The old Willie Parker needs to show up. He did in week 11 and he certainly did against the Browns just one week ago. He needs to repeat his performances and a 100-yard day from him would be a huge boost to the offense. Hopefully, Mewelde Moore gets some touches (most likely receptions) to change things up and give Parker a break. A healthy Parker is an effective Parker. A solid running game will keep pressure off of Roethlisberger, which will lead to a relaxed offense.
Score touchdowns, not field goals. The Steelers dominated in every statistical category in the week 11 matchup, but could not punch the ball into the endzone. Field goals and a timely safety were the only points for the Steelers. The red-zone offense has to improve. In the playoffs, field goals will not win games. Touchdowns do. The red-zone deficiencies can be attributed to a bad offensive line and running game. Goal-line stands by opposing defenses are nothing new for Steelers fans. That will have to change. The offensive line will have to dig deep as does Willie Parker. Look for Gary Russell to get some goal-line carries in an effort to punch the ball in.
Final prediction: Steelers 24, Chargers 17
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