Super Bowl XLIII

My prediction is pretty simple. It coincides with my first two AFC predictions in which I picked the Steelers to win. Luckily, I was right, twice.

This time, however, it is the Super Bowl, and the Steelers will be going against probably the best passing offense they've seen all year.

Still, the Steelers have shut down just about everyone this year. The Cardinals may seem to be unstoppable on the offensive side of the ball, but if there is one team that can run with them, it's the Steelers.

I think the Steelers will win. I think they will solidify themselves as the best franchise in the NFL and get that ever-elusive sixth Super Bowl ring. Let me tell you why.

First, this is the best defense the Cardinals have faced this season. The Steelers are aggressive, tenacious, hard-hitting, and flat-out mean. There are no holes in the defense. The defensive line is well above average and has two pro-bowl caliber players. The two outside linebackers include the defensive player of the year in James Harrison and first-year starter Lamarr Woodley, who, by the way, has 17.5 sacks through 18 games. More than Harrison. On the inside, James Farrior is a pro-bowler, Larry Foote is more than solid, and Lawrence Timmons is just as fast as a lot of running backs in the NFL (he caught Darren Sproles from behind, for reference). In the secondary, Ike Taylor is one of the better corners in the league and William Gay, Bryant McFadden, and DeShea Townsend all rotate in as the #2 corner and contribute significantly. Behind them, Ryan Clark had over 100 tackles in the regular season and hits just as hard as any safety in the league, just ask Wes Welker and Willis McGahee. Oh, and next to him is Troy Polamalu, the best safety in the NFL. If the Cardinals want to beat the Steelers, they are going to have to get the ball out of Kurt Warner's hands quickly, find some balance in the playcalling, and make some exceptional plays (not impossible, obviously, as Larry Fitzgerald has proved). The Steelers defense is not perfect, and it has been beaten, but it takes some extraordinary plays to do so.

The Cardinals beat a good defense in the Philadelphia Eagles. The Steelers are similar in a lot of ways. The difference is, the Eagles blitz - a lot. The Steelers don't blitz as much. It may look like they do, because linebackers generate the pressure, but in reality, Dick Labeau relys on 3-4 guys to get to the quaterback. The chess match between Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley and Labeau will be very, very interesting to watch. I think Labeau wins it. After all, he should be the first coordinator to be in the Hall-of-Fame.

Secondly, Ben Roethlisberger has been phenomenal during the playoffs. Kurt Warner has been better - and has proven to be clutch in the Super Bowl - but there are a couple points I want to make about Ben. First, he hasn't turned the ball over. This plagued him throughout the year and he has been much, much smarter about where he passes the ball. In the San Diego game, he made smart decisions and stayed in a rhythm. In the Baltimore game, he was locked in, and his numbers would've looked better if a) Limas Sweed doesn't drop a perfect touchdown pass, and b) Hines Ward stays in the game. Ward is clearly Ben's favorite target and he will play on Sunday; even if he is not 100%, I think he is a factor. The Super Bowl XL MVP has to get involved, because the team needs his big plays. My second point is that the Ben of Super Bowl XL was not good - he admits he was nervous and it seems that this time, he is much more relaxed. I don't see him repeating his 9-21 performance. The big question, in my mind, is: If Warner gets hurt early and often, will he become turnover-prone? He is similar to Ben in that he is vulnerable to turnovers. So far, the playcalling has been good and he has been able to find receivers open quickly.

And Third, while the Cardinals have been outstanding all postseason long, they have less experience in the big game, and will not be at home. The Cardinals have played much better at home all season long, and this game will most certainly not be a home game. Reports from Tampa indicate Super Bowl XLIII may end up like Detroit did in 2006: infested with Steelers-fans. Matt Hasselbeck said that in XL, he was forced to go to a silent count in the first quarter because of the crowd noise. Kurt Warner will obviously adjust, but if it is basically a Steelers home game, the Cardinals could be in trouble.

Score prediction: Steelers 28, Cardinals 20. This game will not be a blowout. The Cardinals offense is too good and the Steelers' offense isn't really capable of blowing out teams. I think the Cardinals will put up some points, but I think the Steelers offense can put up some of their own as well.

MVP prediction: Troy Polamalu. For a defensive player to win this, he has to have the game of his life, and I think a Steelers defensive player will win it if the Steelers win (barring a huge day from either Ben or Willie Parker, which I think is unlikely). Polamalu was a force in the AFC Championship game and I expect more of the same. I think he has the potential for a repeat performance. I think James Harrison or Lamarr Woodley have a shot as well, but it will take a multiple-sack day and probably double-digit tackles (along with a forced fumble) to win it. If the Cardinals win, I think Larry Fitzgerald will get it. If Fitzgerald continues his dominance, the Cardinals will most likely win, and he should get it.