The Case for Alexander Ovechkin as MVP

Today, the NHL announced that Evgeni Malkin, Alexander Ovechkin, and Pavel Datsyuk as the finalists for the winner of the Hart Trophy, given to the league's MVP. The first two are no surprise, the third is somewhat of a surprise. It should be noted that, for the first time in NHL history, all 3 finalists are Russian-born. I'm going to make my case for Alexander Ovechkin as MVP.

First, Ovechkin can absolutely take over a game, both physically and scoring-wise. He almost single-handedly beat the New York Rangers in December, when the team came back from down 4-0 to win 5-4. He is the most physical of the three finalists and is one of the most feared hitters in the game. That's a strange thing to be labeled when you're a scoring, Russian, left-wing. Malkin and Datsyuk can do this - especially Malkin - but neither can at the level that Ovechkin can. Teams gameplan around him and he still beats them. He's scored 3 goals that should be top 10 "goals of the year." He makes defensemen look ridiculous without even trying (or so it seems). His emotion, passion, and drive are unmatched.

Second, not only did he lead the league in goals with 56, he ended up 10 goals higher than the cloesest. He's the best scorer in the NHL and finished with 56 goals, despite missing a couple games due to his grandfather's illness and an early-season slump when his grandfather was near death. Malkin lead the NHL in assists, with 78, eight more than second-place. Assists are easier to get than goals (two assists are given out for every goal), and there's a reason there's a goal-leader award and not an assist-leader award. That's not to say assists are less important than goals, but you can have a goal without an assist. Malkin finished with more points than Ovechkin - 113 to 110 - but the difference is so insignificant than that doesn't really factor in. Ovechkin actually played in less games so had he played, he might have tied or passed him.

Third, Malkin's team underachieved all season long. The reigning Eastern Conference Champions finished 4th in the conference, and needed deadline-pickups Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz (and the firing of a coach) to even get in. Some will compare this year's Penguins to last year's Caps, who got a lot of production out of deadline pickups and fired their coach as well. The difference is this: the Capitals fired Glen Hanlon on Thanksgiving. The Penguins fired Therrien on February 15th. Ovechkin was on fire from Thanksgiving until April, at the forefront of a four-month climb from last place to the playoffs. Ovechkin's production was consistent and the Caps overachieved like crazy that season. The deadline additions obviously helped push the Caps over the top, but it is concievable that the Caps may have made it wouth their additions. They certainly had the momentum to do it. Still, Ovechkin led the Caps from last to first. Did Malkin lead the Penguins to the playoffs, or did a new coach, Guerin, and Kunitz do it? It's certainly debatable. This year, the Caps overachieved and finished 2nd in the conference. The had problems on defense and in goal all season long but thanks to an Ovechkin-led offense, the team still won. And let's not forget Ovechkin's 10 game-winning goals to Malkin's 4 or Datsyuk's 3. He's clutch.

I think Malkin and Ovechkin's defense is comprable, considering they play different positions and have different roles. Both get penalty kill time. Datsyuk is obviously the best defender of the three. He will win the Selke, as he should.

But, in my opinion, Datsyuk doesn't dominate like Ovechkin or Malkin does. He's clearly the best two-way player in the game. And when it comes to Ovechkin vs. Malkin, I take Ovechkin to win his second consecutive MVP.

Two Words: Game Seven

The NHL Playoffs are the best postseason in sports. I will argue that until the day I die. Last night, I experienced exactly why. Game 7. Caps-Rangers. Verizon Center. Tied 1-1 with 5 minutes remaining, Sergei Fedorov, who had had an awful series, took the puck down the right side, stopped at the bottom of the circle, and fired a snapshot top-shelf over Henrik Lundqvist's glove.

The result: Absolute pandemonium at Verizon Center. The 18,300 fans "rocking the red" were all jumping up and down, high-fiving, hugging anyone around them: it was complete euphoria. The arena was so loud, you could not hear the PA announcer announce the goal. The fans then remained standing and cheering for a solid 5 minutes while the final minutes played out. When the final buzzer finally sounded, Verizon Center erupted yet again. The Caps had finally won a playoff series, in a comeback fashion that they loved last season: they came back from 3-1 in the series and 1-0 in the game.

An hour later, the Carolina Hurricanes, almost to one-up division rival Washington, scored two goals in the final 2 minutes on arguably the best goaltender of all-time. If you have Martin Brodeur in net and a lead with 2 minutes left in game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, you can start celebrating. Guess not. It was a complete shocker that let the 19,000 in New Jersey in tears.

I love the NHL Playoffs. Caps vs. Penguins is going to be one of the best series of all-time.

Terps Laying Solid Foundation for Future

Let's be honest with ourselves for a second. As much as I've tried to stay optimistic on the matter, Maryland is not going to land Lance Stephenson. If Stephenson wanted to come to Maryland, he would be here already. So, it's time to chalk that one up to a good attempt and move on. 

Move on Maryland certainly has, as they have already landed a recruit for 2010 who is already much more highly rated than either of the members of their 2009 class. His name is Terrence Ross (pictured, left), and, according to ESPN, he's the number 41 player in the class of '10. At 6'6 and 180 pounds, he's ideally a shooting guard, but could certainly play small forward, especially in Gary's lineup. Most importantly, he's a pure shooter, one of the best in the nation as a high schooler. Originally from Oregon, he transferred to nearby Montrose Christian for academics. Dubbed as the best 2-guard prospect in the west before he came east, Ross was also actively pursued by Washington, Arizona State, Cal and Oregon State.

Maryland has also received a commitment from the number 30 point guard in the country for 2010 in Terrell Stoglin. Stoglin is still in "project" status, and will have to work on his jump shot, because at 6'0, he's not going to find it easy to get to the rim in the ACC. Still, though, he averaged 27.0 ppg and 7.5 apg as a junior this season and was recruited by PAC 10 powerhouses USC and UCLA.

The only questions that remain for the upcoming season lay with Greivis Vasquez, who still doesn't know whether he's coming back to school for his senior season, and 6'9 power forward DeShawn Painter, who was granted a release from his letter of intent to Florida last week, and has scheduled a visit to Maryland. Any update on either of those will instantly be put here. 

(Photo Credit: montrosebasketball.com)

Sharks Choke Again

It's almost an annual ritual. The San Jose Sharks, consistently one of the best teams all year long (and this year's President's Trophy winner), have now lost yet another first-round series. I had them going all the way, under the belief that Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau would stop disappearing in the playoffs and Nabokov would carry them.

I was wrong. It must really hurt to be a Sharks fan, but the best line I heard all weekend was the following from a Sharks poster on a message board:

"I want Joe Thornton to be a pall-bearer at my funeral, so he can let me down one last time."

You have to love playoff hockey, where an 8 seed can upset the best team in the NHL any given season. Tomorrow night the Caps will look to complete their comeback from down 3-1 in the series versus the Rangers. I will be there at Verizon Center to cheer them on, hoping that this year's game seven does not end up like last year's game seven: with Caps fans heartbroken.

Wright, Tyler Hold Bragging Rights

... And I do not. I really need to stop making predictions on this thing, because as a rule it just doesn't work out. The final count of picks right in the first round (once again, based on the spot players were picked, not the team they were picked by):

Herman: 5

Radecki: 8

Kiper: 6

McShay: 7

Wright: 8

Yeah, I got owned. However, that's not going to stop me from talking about it. Look throughout the coming week, and especially for the show on Monday, for lots of TNT coverage about the crazy first and second rounds of the NFL Draft. Hopefully my analysis will serve you slightly better than my 16% pick percentage did. 

Middle of the First Round Update

Wow, do I have a lot to write about. After pick 16, Maclin is still on the board? The Kansas City Chiefs taking Tyson Jackson at number 3? Larry English at 16? Oh yeah, how about Heyward-Bey being the first wide receiver off the board? 

All of those will get their own post, no worries. I just wanted to update on the pick standings, in which it's a four-way battle for first. Kiper, McShay, Tyler and Wright all had 5 picks right in the first 16. I, on the other hand, only got 3 right. I suck, I know. There's still time, though. We'll see. 

Xavier Henry is Attending Kansas

In the completely expected news department, top recruit Xavier Henry held a press conference today announcing his decision to attend the University of Kansas in the fall. Kansas was already supposed to be the best team in the nation, and adding Henry will only make them better. How this pertains to Maryland is through Lance Stephenson, who is expected to completely remove Kansas from his recruiting radar. 

Although Kentucky still has a puncher's chance, it's safe to say that Stephenson's decision has come down to either St. John's or Maryland, and it could very well be a 50-50 chance for both schools. It is unknown how much emphasis Stephenson is giving to Greivis Vasquez and his ongoing draft saga. It could go either way there: perhaps Stephenson wants Vasquez to go pro so he could be the lone star at Maryland next season, or perhaps Stephenson wants an elite point guard to get the ball to him. Either way, time is running out for Vasquez and Stephenson to make their final decisions, and I will be the first to let you know when it happens. 

Down 3-1, Caps Face Embarrassing First Round Loss

Yes, I know that last year, the Caps were down 3-1 to the Flyers and forced a seventh game, one they should have won. Yes, I know that this is basically the same team, just more experienced, except for in goal, where 20-year old rookie has been better than Cristobal Huet was last year in round one. Still, down 3-1 against the New York Rangers, the Caps are staring yet another first-round series loss in the face. This one would be especially bad; this was the best Caps team in history (in the regular season) and was absolutely loaded on offense. The problems - the defense and goaltender – would be their Achilles heel in the playoffs. Well, the defense has been fine, and, other than game one, the goaltending has been great. The problem? The offense.

This was one of the best offenses in the regular season, boasting Rocket Richard Trophy winner Alexander Ovechkin, 30-goal scorers in Mike Green and Alex Semin, 20-goal scorers in Nicklas Backstrom and Brooks Laich. This team could score on anyone. Well, until the playoffs. The Caps refuse to pay the price it takes to score in the playoffs. The Rangers have done a fantastic job of keeping the Caps to the outside on offense and they have done an even better job blocking the shots. The Caps refuse to park someone in front of the net and disrupt Henrik Lundqvist's sightlines. They refuse to make adjustments against a team that has been completely outplayed all series long.

Too often, the Washington offense revolves around watching Alex Ovechkin skate in, shoot it, and then let the Rangers break out. There is no one crashing the net and there is no secondary scoring. The third and fourth lines have done absolutely nothing all series long and it is absolutely disgusting to watch. Sure, the Caps can take solace in the fact that they have been the better team since the drop of the puck in game 1. But that doesn't matter when you're down 3-1 and must win 3 straight to come back. They seem to play better with their backs against the wall, but 91% of the teams up 3-1 in playoff series go on to win it.

And if that stat holds true in this series, the Caps must make some serious moves in the offseason. George McPhee must be fired; he has yet to win a playoff series as general manager of the Capitals in 11 years (1998 was David Poile's team). The team must find a way to add more grit to the offense and defense. A physical, veteran defenseman must be found, whether via free agency or trade. A playoff-type forward has to be found, and the team should look for a way to trade Jose Theodore and Michael Nylander.

All that can be worried about for a few months in the Caps find a way to come back in this series. But right now, it's not looking good for the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Mock Draft: Picks 25-32

This is the end of the summary of the mock draft we held on Monday. The draft is officially less than 48 hours from now, so this is all I will say about it. Here's wishing the best possible pick to hometown Darrius Heyward-Bey, and let's see some trades. Trades are exciting. 

25. Miami Dolphins

Herman: Evander Brown (DT, Missouri)

Radecki: Vontae Davis (CB, Illinois)

Kiper: Malcolm Jenkins (CB, Ohio State)

McShay: Kenny Britt (WR, Rutgers)

Wright: Everette Brown (DE, Florida State)

- Notes: Another one with all five of us disagreeing, which shows one of two things: either A) the Dolphins are for real from last year and they don't have many holes and can draft for best player available, or B) the Dolphins last year were complete flukes and have tons of holes. I'm going for B. 

26. Baltimore Ravens

Herman: Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR, Maryland)

Radecki: Eben Britton (OT, Arizona)

Kiper: Vontae Davis (CB, Illinois)

McShay: Rey Maualuga (ILB, USC)

Wright: Darrius Heyward-Bey

- Notes: All of these make sense. Heyward-Bey is the tall, fast receiver the Ravens need. Britton would add stability to the right tackle position that the Ravens desperately need. Ozzie Newsome has already hinted at taking a corner in the first round, and Davis is a great talent. If Maualuga is still there, he will be hard to pass up. 

27. Indianapolis Colts

Herman: Clay Matthews (OLB, USC)

Radecki: Peria Jerry (DT, Mississippi)

Kiper: Peria Jerry

McShay: Evander Hood

Wright: Peria Jerry

- Notes: Defense, and more specifically, defensive tackle, is the running theme here. Only I, who thinks that Clay Matthews is too much of a value to pass up here, doesn't have the Colts taking the best defensive tackle available. 

28. Buffalo Bills

Herman: Eben Britton

Radecki: Phil Loadholt (OT, Oklahoma)

Kiper: Eben Britton

McShay: Eben Britton

Wright: Phil Loadholt

- Notes: Sense another theme? Getting rid of Peters makes tackle a glaringly obvious need here. Tyler and Wright had Britton off the board by now, or else I'm sure he would have been the pick. 

29. New York Giants

Herman: Hakeem Nicks (WR, North Carolina)

Radecki: Hakeem Nicks

Kiper: Hakeem Nicks

McShay: Hakeem Nicks

Wright: Percy Harvin (WR, Florida)

- Notes: Another seemingly obvious pick. Nicks would fill the void that Plaxico Burress's jailing will leave, and Harvin will give the Giants a dynamic playmaker. 

30. Tennessee Titans

Herman: Alphonso Smith (CB, Wake Forest)

Radecki: Darius Butler (CB, Connecticut)

Kiper: Percy Harvin

McShay: Vontae Davis

Wright: Darius Butler

- Notes: Wider receiver and cornerback are the biggest needs for the Titans, and it's not even close. However, wide receiver has been a need for such a long time, it's hard to see them finally addressing that need now, so cornerback is the choice for most. 

31. Arizona Cardinals

Herman: Larry English (OLB, Northern Illinois)

Radecki: Knowshon Moreno (RB, Georgia)

Kiper: Larry English

McShay: Donald Brown (RB, Connecticut)

Wright: Chris "Beanie" Wells (RB, Ohio State)

- Notes: If Wells is still there at 31 for the Cardinals, they may seize up out of pure joy. More likely they will go for a runningback like Brown, or they may take the risk and go for Larry English, an underrated pass rush out of Northern Illinois.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers

Herman: Alex Mack (C, California)

Radecki: Alex Mack

Kiper: Eric Wood (C, Louisville)

McShay: Max Unger (C, Oregon)

Wright: Vontae Davis

- Notes: Center is the likely choice for Pittsburgh here, although is Davis is still on the board, Pitt definitely could take him to add a quality cornerback. 

And that's that. I'll be following this up on Sunday with the winner and percentages for everyone. Just so everyone knows up front, this is how scoring will work. One point for every player taken in the spot the drafter said he would be taken in. Once again, we're going to work off numbers here, not teams. That's how I'm getting rid of the trade aspect. I'm intrigued to see how this pans out. 

Mock Draft: Picks 17-24

Here we go again, for the third part of the mock draft we had. I stress once again, these picks were the ones made on Monday. Here's how it went ...

17. New York Jets

Herman: Everette Brown (DE, Florida State)

Radecki: Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR, Maryland)

Kiper: Darrius Heyward-Bey

McShay: Darrius Heyward-Bey

Wright: Josh Freeman (QB, Kansas State)

- Notes: Heyward-Bey being the most common pick is not surprising here; the Jets need offensive firepower in the worst way. However, Rex Ryan knows how important pass rush is to a defense's success, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Brown go here instead. The Jets need a quarterback, and Wright thinks they will reach for Freeman.

18. Denver Broncos

Herman: Michael Oher (OT, Mississippi)

Radecki: Robert Ayers (DE, Tennessee)

Kiper: Everette Brown

McShay: Everette Brown

Wright: Robert Ayers

- Notes: All four besides me went with Denver picking up the best available defensive end. I didn't see them spending both of their first round picks on the same position, though, and I thought Oher's value was too good for them to pass up here. 

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Herman: Peria Jerry (DT, Mississippi)

Radecki: Rey Maualuga (ILB, USC)

Kiper: Josh Freeman

McShay: Peria Jerry

Wright: Michael Johnson (DE, Georgia Tech)

- Notes: Defensive line was the theme here, with three of the five selections being along that front. Kiper thinks the Bucs would reach for Freeman in this position, and Radecki thinks Maualuga would fill their hole at linebacker nicely. 

20. Detroit Lions

Herman: Rey Maualuga

Radecku: Michael Oher

Kiper: Michael Oher

McShay: Michael Oher

Wright: Michael Oher

- Notes: Everyone agrees that if Oher is still available in this spot, then the Lions would draft him. The problem is, I don't think he will be here. Because of that, I think they would go for the captain of their defense, like they got the captain of their offense with the first pick. 

21. Philadelphia Eagles

Herman: Knowshon Moreno (RB, Georgia)

Radecki: Chris "Beanie" Wells (RB, Ohio State)

Kiper: Knowshon Moreno

McShay: Knowshon Moreno

Wright: Knowshon Moreno

- Notes: Runningback is the obvious choice here for Philadelphia. Moreno is the perfect fit, but if Wells is still there (like in Tyler's draft), Philly may opt for him. 

22. Minnesota Vikings

Herman: Percy Harvin (WR, Florida)

Radecki: Josh Freeman

Kiper: Kenny Britt (WR, Rutgers)

McShay: Percy Harvin

Wright: Eben Britton (OT, Arizona)

- Notes: Offense was the obvious choice here. McShay and I, of course, didn't realize that Harvin had failed his drug test; if so, he wouldn't be the Vikings pick here. Freeman is a definite possibility at this point, but I think Britt is a bit of a reach. Britton would make sense, as well. 

23. New England Patriots

Herman: Beanie Wells

Radecki: Everette Brown 

Kiper: Donald Brown (RB, Connecticut)

McShay: Clay Matthews (OLB, USC)

Wright: Rey Maualuga

- Notes: A rare choice where everyone thought something different. With Wells on the board and New England not having a reliable runningback, I thought Beanie would be too hard to pass up. Kiper had the same thought, but Wells was not on his board. Despite adding Jerod Mayo, New England probably is looking to continue to get younger at linebacker, hence the Matthews and Maualuga picks. Tyler thought they would go for best available player. 

24. Atlanta Falcons

Herman: Vontae Davis (CB, Illinois)

Radecki: Evander Hood (DT, Missouri)

Kiper: Brandon Pettigrew (TE, Oklahoma State)

McShay: Brandon Pettigrew

Wright: Evander Hood

- Pettigrew would have been the choice for Tyler, Wright and I were he not long off our board. As it is, we went for defense: Davis for me because I thought they would need to replace Foxworth at cornerback, and Hood for Tyler and Wright to give them some defensive line stability

Vinson to UMASS

And we interrupt NFL Draft week for a piece of news that should make every Maryland fan a little queasy. A recruiting class that had so much promise now seems destined to be one of mediocrity - at best. Terrell Vinson, ESPN's 8th ranked small forward and 49th ranked overall prospect, had decided to sign with the University of Massachusetts, not the University of Maryland. Although Vinson would likely have backed up Landon Milbourne this year, he could have been the premier player for the Terps in coming years after that. Known for his toughness and defensive rebounding, Vinson went to St. Frances Academy, the same high school as current Terp Sean Mosley. 

Unless Maryland can land Lance Stephenson - which, although still possible, is not likely - the only recruits coming in will be Jordan Williams and James Padgett, two promising, but not highly touted, big men. Here's hoping Greivis comes back. 

(Photo Credit: capitolhoops.com)

Mock Draft: Picks 11-16

I could barely get the tags in trying to do 10 at a time, so I'm going to do six here, and then two more sets of eight. Oh, and Todd McShay released a new mock draft today, and I'm sure Kiper will release one before Saturday. I don't care; if Tyler and I can't change our picks before them, then neither can Kiper and McShay in my book. Anyway ...

11. Buffalo Bills

Herman: Brandon Pettigrew (TE, Oklahoma State)

Radecki: Brandon Pettigrew

Kiper: Robert Ayers (DE, Tennessee)

McShay: Aaron Maybin (De/LB, Penn State)

Wright: Brandon Pettigrew

- Notes: Tyler, Wright and I both think the Bills will take the only sure-fire tight end in the draft. Kiper and McShay have Buffalo going with a pass rusher. You'll see how far they think Pettigrew will fall if he doesn't get taken here. 

12. Denver Broncos

Herman: Tyson Jackson (DE, Louisiana State)

Radecki: Tyson Jackson

Kiper: Tyson Jackson

McShay: Tyson Jackson

Wright: B.J. Raji

- Notes: Everyone except Wright thinks that Tyson Jackson is the perfect player in this spot for the Broncos, a true 3-4 defensive end. Wright, meanwhile, thinks the Broncos would go for B.J. Raji, whom the other four had going three spots earlier.

13. Washington Redskins

Herman: Andre Smith (OT, Alabama)

Radecki: Brian Cushing (OLB, USC)

Kiper: Mark Sanchez (QB, USC)

McShay: Robert Ayers

Wright: Aaron Maybin

- Notes: It figures that the Redskins would be the first team that every single person disagreed upon. I had Andre Smith falling this far, and the Redskins need tackle help. McShay, Wright and Tyler all banked on the fact the Redskins would want to help their defense off the edge. Kiper was the only one with Sanchez left on his board, and he figured the Redskins would take the risk here. 

14. New Orleans Saints

Herman: Brian Cushing

Radecki: Malcolm Jenkins (CB, Ohio State)

Kiper: Chris "Beanie" Wells (RB, Ohio State)

McShay: Chris "Beanie" Wells

Wright: Malcolm Jenkins

- Notes: The Saints need help in the secondary, hence the Beanie Wells picks. They also need help at linebacker, though, and Cushing is the real deal. I would be surprised if the Saints continued to stockpile offensive players, but I suppose that's why they pay Mel Kiper and Todd McShay and not me. 

15. Houston Texans

Herman: Robert Ayers

Radecki: Clay Matthews (OLB, USC)

Kiper: Brian Cushing

McShay: Brian Cushing

Wright: Clay Matthews

- Notes: Once again, I was the odd man out. This time, it was because I didn't see the Texans taking an outside linebacker from USC. I just think with Ayers still on the board, the Texans will want to stabilize the other defensive end position across from Mario Williams.

16. San Diego Chargers

Herman: Malcolm Jenkins 

Radecki: Aaron Maybin

Kiper: Rey Maualuga (ILB, USC)

McShay: Malcolm Jenkins

Wright: Brian Cushing

- Notes: This was the pick where everyone dumped off the players still on their board that they figured should be off by now. McShay and I still had Jenkins, Aaron Maybin was hanging around for Tyler, and Brian Cushing was still there for Wright. Kiper, meanwhile, starts the Maualuga watch - he could go anywhere from here until the end of the first round. 

Mock Draft: Picks 1-10

I'll be doing a three-part post over the next day or two about the results of our mock draft we held today. Included is the pick number, the team picking, and the player selected for our five contestants (Tony, Tyler, ESPN's Mel Kiper, ESPN's Todd McShay, and draftcountdown.com's Scott Wright). Good luck to all.

1. Detroit Lions

Herman: Matthew Stafford (QB, Georgia)

Radecki: Matthew Stafford

Kiper: Matthew Stafford

McShay: Matthew Stafford

Wright: Matthew Stafford

- Notes: All five believe the Lions can't pass up the opportunity for a franchise quarterback, and a face representing hope for the desolate franchise.

2. St. Louis Rams

Herman: Jason Smith (OT, Baylor)

Radecki: Jason Smith

Kiper: Jason Smith

McShay: Jason Smith

Wright: Jason Smith

- Notes: If the Lions don't take Smith with number one, the Rams certainly will at two as their long-term replacement for Orlando Pace. 

3. Kansas City Chiefs

Herman: Aaron Curry (LB, Wake Forest)

Radecki: Eugene Monroe (OT, Virginia)

Kiper: Aaron Curry

McShay: Aaron Curry

Wright: Eugene Monroe

- Notes: The first split decision. Kiper, McShay and I agree that Curry's talent is just too much to pass on, while Tyler and Wright think that the protection of Matt Cassel should be issue number one for Kansas City. 

4. Seattle Seahawks

Herman: Eugene Monroe

Radecki: Aaron Curry

Kiper: Eugene Monroe

McShay: Mark Sanchez (QB, Southern California)

Wright: Aaron Curry

- Notes: A few different trains of thought here. Radecki and Wright both think if Curry makes it this far, it's impossible not to take him. McShay thinks Seattle is worried about replacing Matt Hasselbeck. Kiper and I agree that Monroe is too good to fall out of the top five. 

5. Cleveland Browns

Herman: Brian Orakpo (DE/LB, Texas)

Radecki: Michael Crabtree (WR, Texas Tech)

Kiper: Michael Crabtree

McShay: Michael Crabtree

Wright: Michael Crabtree

- Notes: Especially with the uncertainty surrounding Braylon Edwards, most of the drafters think that Cleveland will go for Crabtree. I don't think Cleveland will get any kind of deal done before the draft, and because of that, I think they will go defense. In my mind, Orakpo is the best defensive player available. 

6. Cincinnati Bengals

Herman: Michael Crabtree

Radecki: Jeremy Maclin (WR, Missouri)

Kiper: Andre Smith (OT, Alabama)

McShay: Eugene Monroe

Wright: Andre Smith

- Notes: There were two trains of thought. Tyler and I think that the Bengals will go with best WR available, while the three draft experts think the Bengals will go with the best offensive tackle available.

7. Oakland Raiders

Herman: Jeremy Maclin

Radecki: Andre Smith

Kiper: Jeremy Maclin

McShay: Andre Smith

Wright: Jeremy Maclin

- Notes: Well, basically the two trains of thought here were the same as the team above this, the Bengals: best available WR or OT.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars

Herman: Mark Sanchez

Radecki: Mark Sanchez

Kiper: Brian Orakpo

McShay: Jeremy Maclin

Wright: Mark Sanchez

- Notes: Tyler, Wright and I all think the Jags will take the plunge and take Sanchez. McShay has the speedy Maclin falling here, and Kiper becomes the second one to take Orakpo off the board.

9. Green Bay Packers

Herman: B.J. Raji (DT, Boston College)

Radecki: B.J. Raji

Kiper: B.J. Raji

McShay: B.J. Raji

Wright: Tyson Jackson (DE, LSU)

- Notes: Everyone agrees on solid defensive line players for the 3-4. Only Wright thinks the Packers will skip their need at DT to go with a DE, the burly Jackson out of LSU. 

10. San Francisco 49ers

Herman: Aaron Maybin

Radecki: Brian Orakpo

Kiper: Aaron Maybin

McShay: Brian Orakpo

Wright: Brian Orakpo

- Notes: Pass rush is an obvious need for the 49ers, and everyone has them going with the best available defensive end/linebacker hybrid. 

Look for picks 11-20 soon. 

Busy Week

I apologize for the lack of posts recently; I have had the busiest week of the semester and it won't let up until this Wednesday. There's a lot to talk about with the NHL and MLB so I want to post, but have not had the time. Tune in tomorrow, though, for an NFL mock draft!

Surprises Abound to Start Season

This - other than the playoffs - is really when MLB is exciting. At least it is to me, as an Orioles fan, and I'm sure fans of Toronto, Kansas City, Seattle, Florida and San Diego would agree with me. It's early in the season when the teams playing with less payroll and talent than the New York's and Boston's of the world have a chance to get a fast start. They're playing on adrenaline and hustle and grittiness, and they scrap out wins. The problem with baseball is that it's a marathon. A ridiculously long marathon. So, by September, C.C. Sabathia will have learned exactly how to get each and every Orioles batter out, and he will have perfected the stuff he needs to do that. Meanwhile, When Koji Uehara is pitching to Mark Teixeira, Uehara will know how to get Teixeira out, but Teixeira will already know what Uehara is going to do, and will best him. It's a simple matter of talent. 

But maybe I'm just cynical. 

That's really all I had for this one, but I would never exit without a few quick hits to catch people up in case you've been too busy mourning the end of the NCAA tournament/anticipating the NFL draft. 

So, the Nationals still haven't won a game.  They're 26th in the majors in runs scored, 21st in hits and 27th in home runs. They're 29th in ERA, 29th in strikeouts and 29th in batting average against. Oh, by the way, they're 27th in errors and 29th in field percentage. Not being good at anything generally translates into 0-7. Their lone bright spot (Cristian Guzman, hitting a ridiculous .515 to start the season) has a hurt hamstring. It's not looking likely that they will finish anywhere but last in the NL East, especially because ...

The Marlins are playing the best baseball in the league right now. You liked that segue, didn't you? Anyway, the Marlins are 7-1, and even though they're playing in a division with the defending World Series champs, the new-bullpened Mets and the fellow upstart Braves, the Marlins feel they can hang around until the end. Josh Johnson had two brilliant starts to lead off the season (he's 2-0 with 15.2 IP, 15 SO, and an ERA of 0.57). The bullpen has been solid too; the most runs they've given up in a game this year is six. Six, by the way, is less than the average runs given up by the Orioles this year. Oh, hey! Speaking of the Orioles ...

Wow, the Orioles can hit. And wow, the Orioles can not pitch. Make no mistake about it, Baltimore fans see the light at the end of the tunnel - apparently their pitching prospects in the minor leagues are second to none. They will be fixtures for next year, though. This year, the Orioles will have to suffer through watching a rotation consisting of an average number one starter (Jeremy Guthrie), a number two starter who should be a number three (Koji Uehara), a number three starter who should be a number five (Mark Hendrickson), and two other starters who have no business being on a major league roster (Alfredo Simon and Adam Eaton). That being said, the Orioles are still 6-3 because they have arguably the best 1-2-3 hitting trio in baseball. Brian Roberts is perenially underrated. Adam Jones (pictured, right) is one of the best young talents in baseball, and you can book Nick Markakis before the season even begins to hit .300 with 20 HR and 90 RBI. Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora can both knock in runners, and Luke Scott isn't a bum himself. Throw Matt Weiters into the mix come June, and the O's will continue to be one of the better offensive teams in the majors. In the end, though, asking the bullpen to give them at least five innings every game won't be enough for this season. 

Keeping it in the east, the Blue Jays are hitting a lot better than we anticipated. Everyone knew they could pitch. And pitch they've been doing well. The magic number early this season for the Blue Jays has been five; they've yet to lose a game when they scored at least five runs. Thankfully for Toronto, they've scored at least five runs in seven of their ten games. Led by the rejuvenated Scott Rolen (no, I didn't know he was still around, either), Toronto is leading the American League in batting average and is second in runs scored. I don't know that they can hit this well for the entire year, but I do think they can pitch this well. Toronto has a far better chance to be around near the top of the AL East come September than the O's do. 

That will wrap this one up. Sorry to show my ESPN-like east coast bias, I'll try to do better next time. The college basketball late signing period started yesterday, so look for updates on that, and of course the NFL draft is a mere nine days away. Keep checking back here for info on all that. 

(Photo Credit: AP)

Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview

Tomorrow, the fight for the Stanley Cup finally begins. Tomorrow, records are thrown out the window. Tomorrow, the best playoffs in all of sports begins.

Here are my picks, starting with the East:

1 Boston vs. 8 Montreal: 1 Boston
2 Washington vs. 7 New York: 2 Washington
3 New Jersey vs. 6 Carolina: 6 Carolina
4 Pittsburgh vs. 5 Philadelphia: 4 Pittsburgh

As you can see, I'm not predicting many upsets. It's not that I don't think the series will be close, it's that I think the higher-ranked teams - other than New Jersey - will end up taking care of business. My upset is based on the fact that Carolina was so hot down the stretch and Cam Ward was playing like he did when they won the Cup.

Now, for the West:

1 San Jose vs. 8 Anaheim: 1 San Jose
2 Detroit vs. 7 Columbus: 7 Columbus
3 Vancouver vs. 6 St. Louis: 6 St. Louis
4 Chicago vs. 5 Calgary: 4 Chicago

Here, I have two upsets - Columbus and St. Louis. I think Columbus' goaltending is what wins them this series, and I just really like St. Louis. Just a hunch.

Second round, starting in the east:

1 Boston vs. 6 Carolina: 1 Boston
2 Washington vs. 4 Pittsburgh: 4 Pittsburgh

I think Boston will beat Carolina in a 7-game series, and I think Jose Theodore lets the Caps down in the 2nd round vs. Pittsburgh.

In the west:

1 San Jose vs. 7 Columbus: 1 San Jose
4 Chicago vs. 6 St. Louis: 4 Chicago

San Jose is really good and I don't see Columbus beating them, and I think Chicago takes care of business vs. a young St. Louis team.

Conference Finals:

1 Boston vs. 4 Pittsburgh: 1 Boston

Boston is too well-rounded, too experienced, too good in goal for Pittsburgh. This will be another great series.

1 San Jose vs. 4 Chicago: 1 San Jose

San Jose, like Boston, is too good. I think they win this and go on to play the Bruins in a cross-country battle.

Stanley Cup Finals:

1 Boston vs. 1 San Jose: 1 San Jose

I think San Jose will win...the West is the better conference this season and I think San Jose is the better all-around team.

Steelers re-sign James Harrison

James Harrison is no longer the biggest bargain in the NFL. His fantastic 2008 season (in which he won Defensive Player of the Year) came at a cost of $1.4 million, the absolute definition of a steal. Harrison had one more year on his contract but he naturally wanted a raise - the Steelers were more than willing to negotiate.

Today, the two sides finally agreed to a new deal. The new contract keeps Harrison under Steelers control for another six years, and even though Harrison is 30, he still has a relatively young football body - he only has two seasons as a full-time starter. It is unlikely that he plays until he is 36, but regardless he is under the team's control.

There were suggestions that the team should trade Harrison (from ProFootballTalk.com) and some thought the Steelers would not given big-time money to a linebacker at the age of 30. Both were possible - the Steelers just released fan favorite Joey Porter a couple years ago instead of giving him a new deal. The Pittsburgh Steelers produce linebackers like Hollywood produces movies, so it would make sense for the Steelers to go with a younger, cheaper player after Harrison leaves in 2010.

Now, however, Harrison is going nowhere. The deal itself is fantastic; I am in the camp that anything over 6 years is ridiculous, unless the player is a franchise player. 6 years is a high number for a 30 year old linebacker, but he most likely will not see all 6 years of the deal in a Steelers uniform. The team obviously does not feel comfortable with the possibility of using another draft pick on a linebacker or throwing 2008 draft pick Bruce Davis into a starting role.

And a little perspective: Harrison, the defensive player of the year, signed for 6 years, $51.75 million ($20 million guaranteed). DeAngelo Hall signed for 6 years, $55 million ($23 million guaranteed). Does anyone consider Hall a franchise player?

(Photo: NFL)

The Frozen Four: An Appetizer for the NHL Playoffs

Yesterday's Division-1 college hockey national championship game between Miami and Boston U was one for the ages. BU, down 3-1 with 3+ minutes left, pulled their goaltender for the extra attacker. You'd think Miami would find a way to score an empty-netter in three minutes to ice the game. It looked like the Redhawks would get their first national championship...in any sport (in their bicentennial, nonetheless).

It never happened. BU found a way to keep the puck out of the net for 2 minutes, and then made it 3-2 with 59 seconds left. With 17 seconds left, a fantastic passing play tied the score at 3. Overtime would be needed to decide the national champion.

And what an overtime it was. Boston had all the momentum in the world, but Miami held them off. The Redhawks even had some great scoring chances themselves. A deflected slapshot by Colby Cohen of BU gave BU their 5th national championship and completed the comeback. You can't help but feel bad for Miami, who battled all tournament long only to see their lead evaporate in less than a minute. Their national championship was taken right from their hands. The winning goal itself was actually deflected by Redhawks' defenseman Kevin Roeder, who was sliding to block it - a great defensive play. The highlights are below.



The game was far superior to that of the basketball national championship, which was over after about 10 minutes of play. One of the things that makes playoff/tournament hockey great is the fact that teams never quit and blowouts rarely happen. Teams live off of raw emotion and toughness, and an underdog like Miami always has a chance if they fight until the end. Each goal scored is treated like a game winner, and the actual game-winners are pure euphoria. There is nothing in sports like a sudden-death overtime goal. Absolutely nothing like it.

And the best part is that the insanity that is playoff hockey is not far away - the NHL playoffs begin on Wednesday. They are the best playoffs in sports, for a multitude of reasons. The playoff beards, the game sevens, the triple overtimes, the mobbing of teammates after goals, the pure noise that is an NHL arena, everything about it is amazing. The Caps have been in cruise control for about a month and the team and the fans are ready for round one. I can't wait, and watching an epic Miami-BU national championship game did not help.

Bring on the fight for Lord Stanley's Cup.

ESPN: Maryland Number Two for Stephenson, One for Vinson

ESPN just launched their spring recruiting preview, in which they discussed the top remaining players in the country who have yet to sign to a school. Oft-talked about recruit Lance Stephenson checked in at the number 12 spot. Because ESPN, like many others, thinks that number three recruit Xavier Henry will commit to Kansas, they have the Jayhawks out of the running for Stephenson. However, they also have St. John's one-upping the Terrapins on the trail. If they had to pick a school today that Stephenson would end up, they say it would be the Red Storm. The Terps check in at the number two spot, though, so all hope should not be lost.

In another surprise, Maryland is said to be the most likely home for top 50 recruit Terrell Vinson next year. A 6'7 small forward who plays bigger than his size, Vinson hails from St. Frances Academy in Baltimore, the same high school that produced current Terp Sean Mosley. Described as an Antoine Walker-like player, Vinson would be the third freshman that would compete for playing time as one of the bigs for the Terps.

Currently, with neither Williams nor Padgett being in the top 100 of prospects, Maryland's recruiting class is solid, but nothing to write home about. If the Terps were to land either Stephenson or Vinson, it would immediately put it as one of their best in recent memory. 

Thoughts on the First Few Days of the New Season

The first few days of the 2009 MLB season is in the books, and it's been an interesting few days indeed. A lot has already happened, but, obviously, it's hard to tell much of anything when most teams have still only played one game. You wouldn't judge a football team for the season six minutes into the first quarter, would you? Didn't think so. But still ...

I don't understand what the big deal about booing Mark Teixeira is. Peter Gammons was all sorts of upset about it on ESPN Monday night, and it was the subject of multiple articles in newspapers around the country (Two are here and here. Read the comments on the first if you like to hate on either Yankees or Orioles fans.). "Scum!" "Sellout!" "Corporate whore!" yell angry Baltimore fans. "I like money" whimpers a defeated Teixeira back. Look, I understand Teixeira's decision. To sign with the Orioles, he was going to give up playing for a bona fide contender, as well as sacrificing over $4 mil a year for seven years. 

But that being said, if you're not an Oriole fan, put yourself in one's shoes. The team you support has a proud history, but for the past ten years, has been on Royals-Pirates level. Every year you have to play the Yankees for 19 games, and every year you lose most of them. When you play the Yankees in Baltimore, there's usually about 75% Yankees fans in the crowd. But it's opening day. You saw the Rays go from last to first last year, why not you this year? There's a renewed interest in the team from the exciting young hitters they have, and the exciting young pitchers that probably won't appear until August or September. There's reason - albeit very little - for optimism. And up first is the hometown guy who spurned your team's offer to play for the most hated of all teams. If I were there, I would have booed him until I was hoarse, too. ESPN needs to get over itself. 

Now that that rant is over ... Johan Santana (pictured, right) is going to win a lot of games this year. Not that that's unusual, but when I say a lot, I mean 20+. If he gets decent run support and is throwing his stuff at an average level for him, the Mets are going to be virtually unbeatable. Putz in the 8th and K-Rod in the 9th is an absolutely nasty back end. It won't matter unless starts 2-5 of the Mets rotation step up, but you can virtually pencil in a "W" every time Santana takes the mound. 

Keeping it in the NL East, the Braves should take a lot more out of beating the Phillies 8-1 in the first two games than the Phillies should. The Braves want to believe they're a contender in the NL East this year, and theres no better way to bolster their confidence than by running over the defending champs in the first two games, holding that vaunted lineup to only one run in 18 innings. The Phillies and their fans have no reason to fret, though. They know they're going to hit this year; there's too much talent there to deny that. The starting pitching has been poor, but the bullpen has pitched admirably. It would have been nice to keep the momentum from last October going, but it's no reason for alarm. 

And just a few quick hits ...

Ouch, Tyler. The Nats begin the season at 0-3, losing all three games to the Marlins, the only team in the division they had a chance to finish above. 

Ken Griffey, Jr., in a Mariners uniform again, is awesome. How could his home run not remind you of the old days? It's good for Griffey, good for the M's, and good for baseball. 

(Photo Credit: AP)

New Season, Same Old Nats

I know it's been only two games, but the games have been such laughingstocks that I have to make a ranting post about it.

First, Manny Acta's job as manager is quickly becoming less and less stable. He plays obvious favorites, none more obvious than his handling of the outfield. He has to put Adam Dunn in left field, but he announced Milledge as the center fielder before spring training and named him leadoff hitter a mere week or so in. His stats give no reason to bat him leadoff, but Acta likes Milledge and could use the "he hit well last year" excuse to keep him there, despite the fact that Elijah Dukes was a little better and Josh Willingham was much better. Acta said Dukes is on the bench because of poor ST stats, well Manny, then why isn't the outfield Dunn-Kearns-Willingham, the three players who had the best spring? This only adds to the fact that Acta refuses to show any emotion in the dugout and has never called out his players for terrible performances.

Also, I find it baffling that Willingham can have a solid year last year - BETTER than Milledge's year - but cannot crack our outfield. Amazing. Oh, and he hasn't gotten an AB in two games, despite Acta assuring everyone that they would split at bats. Acta wants to pinch hit third catcher Josh Bard, so that the front office can decide if he's more worthy than Wil Nieves as backup. It's sickening.

Acta also demands that Ryan Zimmerman hit 3rd, which is completely ridiculous. He is far from a number 3 hitter and has never been comfortable there. They SHOULD put someone like Adam Dunn there. Oh, and Lastings Milledge at leadoff is a complete failure. 0/8 so far this year with 4 strikeouts. Guzman hit over .300 last year leading off, WHY CHANGE IT? Nick Johnson would be a perfect #2 hitter but Acta refuses to change it up. The stubborness is absurd and the favortism is prevalent. I'd be shocked if Milledge moves from leadoff before the middle of May. The team has shown a pattern of stubborness with the lineup, and it has hurt their production.

Second, the pitching staff is a joke. John Lannan, the supposed ace, got absolutely rocked yesterday. He was terrible. I know Lannan is better and the nerves could have gotten to him, so I'm not concerned about him. What I am concerned about is the bullpen and the rest of the rotation. Scott Olsen, tonight's starter, was worse than Lannan. He never hit 90 on his fastball and had no control. He was awful. It was embarassing to watch the Marlins tee off on yet another Nationals starter. Lannan and Olsen combined for 6 innings and 14 runs. That's solid production from your starters! After Olsen is Daniel Cabrera, who has never been a consistent starter for the Orioles and was far from good in spring training. Acta loves Cabrera so if he struggles, don't expect him to be demoted or released anytime soon. Behind Cabrera is rookie Shairon Martis, and you never know what you'll get from a rookie. Top prospect Jordan Zimmermann is the number five starter, but he is also a rookie - who knows what he'll be able to do.

The bullpen was terrible yesterday but was more stable Tuesday. Julian Tavarez was bad Monday but was much better Tuesday so I won't complain about him. Will Ledezma was awful on Monday and has a track record of being terrible in major league action, despite good spring training numbers. It does not look good for the Nats' bullpen this year. I'm honestly scared thinking about how many runs they will give up.


It's April 7th, and I'm already wondering if the Nats can win 50 games this year. All of my optimism is completely destroyed, and it's a depressing feeling to know your team could be out of contention by May 1st.

Show Today/Podcast Tomorrow

Hey guys, sorry I haven't been on here too much of late, but Tyler's been keeping you up to date with some really good stuff.

Just wanted to send out a quick reminder to tune in today from 5 to 6 to listen as Tyler and I go division-by-division and give our two cents about the 2009 MLB season.

Also, over the next few days I will be posting podcasts of tonight's show, and possibly one or two previous shows so you can laugh at how wrong our predictions generally are. 

Thanks for your support.

2009 MLB Preview

The first official pitch of the 2009 MLB season will be thrown tonight in Philadelphia as the Braves take on the World Series Champions of 2008. Will the Phillies repeat? I don't think so. Take a look at my projected standings for the 2009 season:

National League

East
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
Florida Marlins

Central
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros

West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres

Wild Card: Cardinals

American League

East
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles

Central
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians

West
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland A's
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners

Wild Card: Yankees

On Monday, Tony and I will go through the divisions in our full MLB season preview. I'll go more in-depth with my standings predictions and we'll both offer our predictions for the playoffs and World Series. Tune in!

Nationals Finalize 25-man roster

My starting rotation preview is below, so just scroll down to take a look. One player in the rotation will not be listed on the 25-man roster to start the season (Jordan Zimmermann) because of free agency/arbitration reasons. The Nationals will have to send someone down (or cut someone) on April 19th, Zimmermann's first start. The roster is below, or found here:

Pitching Rotation
LHP John Lannan
LHP Scott Olsen
RHP Daniel Cabrera
RHP Shairon Martis

Infielders
Ronnie Belliard
Alberto Gonzalez
Cristian Guzman
Willie Harris
Nick Johnson
Ryan Zimmerman

Bullpen
LHP Joe Beimel
RHP Joel Hanrahan
LHP Mike Hinckley
LHP Wil Ledezma
RHP Saul Rivera
RHP Steven Shell
RHP Julian Tavarez

Outfielders
Elijah Dukes
Adam Dunn
Austin Kearns
Lastings Milledge
Josh Willingham

Catchers
Josh Bard
Jesus Flores
Wil Nieves

On the 19th, either Bard or Nieves will be sent down to make room for Zimmermann. When Anderson Hernandez (the projected starting second baseman) comes back in a week, expect Alberto Gonzalez to be sent down.

2009 Washington Nationals Preview: Rotation

Sorry for not putting this up on Thursday - 2 exams and a cold really hampered me this week. Now I'm feeling better and have some free time to go a good preview of the Nationals' starting rotation.

The opening day starter will be 25-year old John Lannan, who was the ace of the staff last year (if you could call him that). His sub-.500 record (9-15) does not indicate how well he pitched; he finished with a 3.91 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .252 batting average. He was consistent despite receiving no run support from the offense. This spring, Lannan has been fantastic. Prior to his final start, he had not given up more than 2 runs in a start. His ERA finished at 3.97 as he prepares to take on the Marlins on Monday. Lannan is the team's most reliable pitcher despite his age and inexperience, and has proven to be durable. I think Lannan's 2009 campaign will feature at least one injury, if for no other reason than he's due for one. He's tough and talented, and I think he will have a great year. I envision a 12-7 kind of record with a mid-3 ERA.

Following Lannan will be offseason acquisition Scott Olsen, the former Marlins pitcher. Olsen had a respectable season in 2008, finishing with an 8-11 record and a 4.20 ERA. The team was hoping he could stabilize the rotation, but this spring he has been very hittable, giving up 40 hits in 29.2 innings. His velocity is down and he is certainly struggling. Questions about his chain cigarette smoking have come up among fans and if he is struggling early on it will really put a strain on the rotation. Hopefully he can get it together by his first start. I think he will be average this season, probably a below .500 record and around a 5 ERA. The velocity drop worries me.

It doesn't get much better after Olsen. Free agent signing Daniel Cabrera has a 6.39 spring ERA and has overall not been impressive. He hasn't had an ERA lower than 5 in two years and has never had a sub-4 ERA. His strikeout numbers are down and his walks are still up. He is wild, unpredictable, and inconsistent. This spring he has not been good in any of his starts, except for a 5-inning, 2 run start vs. a minor league team. I honestly believe Cabrera will be out of the rotation by June, if not sooner. I don't see pitching coach Randy St. Claire becoming a miracle-worker with this lost cause. I predict a 5+ ERA and eventually he is cut or designated for assignment. He could be moved to the bullpen, but I think that experiment will not result in any great turnaround.

The number four starter may be better than Olsen and Cabrera. It is young Shairon Martis (pictured, right), who was called up in September last season and pitched in five games (four starts), finishing with a 5.66 ERA. The ERA is deceiving, though, because one poor start skewed it. He also had 23 strikeouts in 20 innings. This spring, he has a 2.31 ERA and his velocity has jumped up into the mid-90s. The young 22-year old will probably have an up-and-down year, but the team will rely on him to make lots of starts. I see around a 4.5 ERA for Martis in his rookie year.

The Nationals' fifth starter may end up being the best on the rotation. Jordan Zimmermann will start the season in AAA until April 19th for arbitration reasons. He has had the best spring of any Nationals pitcher, and it isn't even close. He had one poor start - when he had the flu - that ballooned his ERA to 3.14, but for the most part was electric. He had 20 strikeouts and only 2 walks, and I believe all of the runs he gave up came in one start (5 ER). His WHIP was barely above 1, contiuing his dominance from last year's minor leagues, when he shot through the leagues. I expect Zimmermann to be real good this season and compete for the rookie of the year award. He has ace-worthy stuff and great makeup.

The players who will be called up for injuries will include Collin Balester, Tyler Clippard, Kip Wells, Josh Towers, Garrett Mock, Gustavo Chacin, Craig Stanmen and possibly Ross Detwiler (who will need to pitch great to start the season). The rotation is not very deep and if injuries take Lannan or Zimmermann out the Nationals are in trouble. It could be one of the worst in baseball.

Sunday I'll post my division-by-division projected standings!

Events at Kentucky Could Lead to Stephenson at Maryland

Lance Stephenson has still not given any indication when he will announce what college he will attend next year. Before a solid showing at the McDonald's All-American game (12 points, six assists, three steals), the only thing Stephenson divulged to reporters were that his top three choices were still Kansas, Maryland and St. John's. 

He may be holding off because of reasons outside of his control. 

Coach John Calipari (pictured, left) leaving Memphis to go to Kentucky will shake up the entire recruiting world, and Stephenson is in the middle of that picture. 

Recruits typically choose a school in equal parts because of their relationship with the coaching staff and because of the school itself. So, when a coach goes, it is logical that the recruits for that school, especially if they were torn in their decision-making process to begin with, to attend their second choice school.

Enter Xavier Henry, widely considered to be the single best prospect coming out of high school this year. Henry is a 6'5 shooting guard, who committed to Memphis after limiting his choices down to Memphis and Kansas. Odds are Henry will no longer attend Memphis because of Calipari's absence. One of two choices are then logical for Henry: attend Kansas, his second choice school, or follow his desired coach to Kentucky. 

However, Henry may then look at Kentucky's roster and see that Jodie Meeks will likely return for his senior season. Jodie Meeks (pictured, right) is a 6'4 shooting guard who averaged 23.7 ppg last year. No matter how good Henry is, he's not starting over Meeks. Henry also has his reputation to consider: he's a "one and done" player (a player who only intends to play college ball for one year before leaving for the NBA), and he doesn't want to play second fiddle to anyone.

So, it is not unreasonable at all to say Henry ends up at Kansas. Well, if Kansas is bringing in one freshman 6'5 shooting guard in Henry, why bring in another one in Stephenson? This is not to mention Kansas's scholarship situation, and the fact they would have to force some transfers to make room for Stephenson on their roster in the first place. 

So, what then for Stephenson? It really leaves Maryland and St. John's, and Maryland is clearly in the lead there. The only other option for Stephenson is Kentucky, even though he neither looked at Kentucky nor Memphis previously. Calipari has that way, however, and will likely try to convince Stephenson to attend, especially if he loses Henry.

It's a domino effect from all over, but the bottom line to take from it all is that Maryland has a better shot of landing Stephenson than they did a week ago. Maybe even a good shot. 

(Photo Credits: AP)

2009 Washington Nationals Preview: Bullpen

This year's bullpen will no doubt be a large question mark for the Nationals. Joel Hanrahan, the current closer, had an up-and-down 2008 after replacing Jon Rauch (who was traded to Arizona). His ERA was relatively high for a closer - 3.95 - and he had 4 blown saves in 13 save opportunities. The one promising stat for Hanrahan is his strikeout numbers; in 2008, he had 93 strikeouts in 84.1 innings. He is far from a sure thing at closer, but if he can work on his control, he could be a reliable closer. Hanrahan pitched for team USA in the World Baseball Classic and has only pitched 4 innings for the Nationals this spring (giving up 2 ER). I look for him to stay the closer all season, picking up 25-30 saves in the process.

Setting up Hanrahan will be new acquistion Joe Beimel. He spent 2008 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 2.02 ERA in 71 games. He's a veteran lefty, something that last year's bullpen lacked. He's one of the few pitchers in this group that has a track record of being good. I don't expect Beimel to be the savior of this bullpen, but I think he'll be reliable, something I can't say about most of the pitchers on the staff.

The 7th-inning man will be last year's set up man, Saul Rivera. Rivera has arguably been the Nationals' most consistent reliever since his arrival in 2006, never posing an ERA more than 4. Last year opponents hit .277 off of him - up from .255 in 2007 - but he managed to keep runs off the board and had a respectable 3.96. On a good team, Rivera is a good middle-relief man. On a team like the Nationals, he is their 2nd-best reliever and 7th-inning man. Rivera has shown the ability to pitch lots of innings for a reliever - 93 in 2007 and 84 in 2008 - and is consistent. I expect a sub-4 ERA in 2009 and probably around 75 innings.

Now, to the middle relief. Here is where the question marks begin. First, I'll talk about Steven Shell. Before last season, Shell was an unknown, but he pitched wonderfully down the stretch, posting a 2.16 ERA in 50 innings last year. His WHIP (1.08) was fantastic and he nearly had a strikeout per innings (41 K in 50 IP). It's hard to guage how Shell will do this year because there have been numerous one-year wonders, but to start the season Shell will be in the bullpen. I think his ERA will go up and he'll finish with a mid-3 ERA.

Former starter Jason Bergmann has made his case for a bullpen spot this spring, failing to give up a run in 11 innings of work so far. Bergmann is the definition of an enigma, pitching like an ace one day and a minor leaguer the next. The switch to the bullpen could be a good thing for Bergmann, who seems to have adjusted well. He will most likely be the swingman and could even see a couple starts.

There is a heated competition for the second lefty spot in the bullpen (after Beimel) going on between Mike Hinckley and Will Ledezma. Hinckley was fantastic at the tail end of 2008, pitching 14 shutout innings and a 0.80 WHIP. He has a struggled this spring, posting a 6.52 ERA, and that could mean he will be sent to AAA in favor of Ledezma, a free agent signing who has a 1.69 ERA in 10 innings pitched. I think the team starts with Ledezma in the bullpen, but Hinckley will be see lots of innings this year, because injuries are inevitable.

The last bullpen spot is either going to Jesus Colome or Garrett Mock. Colome has a 0.90 ERA this spring and pitched well in the 2nd half of 2008, but he may be too inconsistent for the team to keep him. Mock, on the other hand, started for the Nationals in 2008 before switching to the bullpen. He had a 4.17 ERA last year and has a 4.22 spring ERA, but the team likes his makeup and his high strikeout numbers. I like his ability as a pitcher and think the team will keep him in the bullpen to start the season.

That makes the opening day bullpen look like this:

CL - Hanrahan
SU - Beimel
MR- Rivera
MR- Shell
MR - Bergmann
MR - Ledezma
MR - Mock


Tomorrow I'll talk about the rotation, and on Sunday I'll make my record prediction. (photo: USA Today)