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pening day starter will be 25-year old John Lannan, who was the ace of the staff last year (if you could call him that). His sub-.500 record (9-15) does not indicate how well he pitched; he finished with a 3.91 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .252 batting average. He was consistent despite receiving no run support from the offense. This spring, Lannan has been fantastic. Prior to his final start, he had not given up more than 2 runs in a start. His ERA finished at 3.97 as he prepares to take on the Marlins on Monday. Lannan is the team's most reliable pitcher despite his age and inexperience, and has proven to be durable. I think Lannan's 2009 campaign will feature at least one injury, if for no other reason than he's due for one. He's tough and talented, and I think he will have a great year. I envision a 12-7 kind of record with a mid-3 ERA.Following Lannan will be offseason acquisition Scott Olsen, the former Marlins pitcher. Olsen had a respectable season in 2008, finishing with an 8-11 record and a 4.20 ERA. The team was hoping he could stabilize the rotation, but this spring he has been very hittable, giving up 40 hits in 29.2 innings. His velocity is down and he is certainly struggling. Questions about his chain cigarette smoking have come up among fans and if he is struggling early on it will really put a strain on the rotation. Hopefully he can get it together by his first start. I think he will be average this season, probably a below .500 record and around a 5 ERA. The velocity drop worries me.
It doesn't get much better after Olsen. Free agent signing Daniel Cabrera has a 6.39 spring ERA and has overall not been impressive. He hasn't had an ERA lower than 5 in two years and has never had a sub-4 ERA. His strikeout numbers are down and his walks are still up. He is wild, unpredictable, and inconsistent. This spring he has not been good in any of his starts, except for a 5-inning, 2 run start vs. a minor league team. I honestly believe Cabrera will be out of the rotation by June, if not sooner. I don't see pitching coach Randy St. Claire becoming a miracle-worker with this lost cause. I predict a 5+ ERA and eventually he is cut or designated for assignment. He could be moved to the bullpen, but I think that experiment will not result in any great turnaround.
The number four starter may be better than Olsen and Cabrera. It is young Shairon Martis (pictured, right), who was called up in September last season and pitched in five games (four starts), finishing with a 5.66 ERA. The ERA is deceiving, though, because one poor start skewed it. He also had 23 strikeouts in 20 innings. This spring, he has a 2.31 ERA and his velocity has jumped up into the mid-90s. The young 22-year old will probably have an up-and-down year, but the team will rely on him to make lots of starts. I see around a 4.5 ERA for Martis in his rookie year.
The Nationals' fifth starter may end up being the best on the rotation. Jordan Zimmermann will start the season in AAA until April 19th for arbitration reasons. He has had the best spring of any Nationals pitcher, and it isn't even close. He had one poor start - when he had the flu - that ballooned his ERA to 3.14, but for the most part was electric. He had 20 strikeouts and only 2 walks, and I believe all of the runs he gave up came in one start (5 ER). His WHIP was barely above 1, contiuing his dominance from last year's minor leagues, when he shot through the leagues. I expect Zimmermann to be real good this season and compete for the rookie of the year award. He has ace-worthy stuff and great makeup.
The players who will be called up for injuries will include Collin Balester, Tyler Clippard, Kip Wells, Josh Towers, Garrett Mock, Gustavo Chacin, Craig Stanmen and possibly Ross Detwiler (who will need to pitch great to start the season). The rotation is not very deep and if injuries take Lannan or Zimmermann out the Nationals are in trouble. It could be one of the worst in baseball.
Sunday I'll post my division-by-division projected standings!
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