2009 Washington Nationals Preview: Bullpen

This year's bullpen will no doubt be a large question mark for the Nationals. Joel Hanrahan, the current closer, had an up-and-down 2008 after replacing Jon Rauch (who was traded to Arizona). His ERA was relatively high for a closer - 3.95 - and he had 4 blown saves in 13 save opportunities. The one promising stat for Hanrahan is his strikeout numbers; in 2008, he had 93 strikeouts in 84.1 innings. He is far from a sure thing at closer, but if he can work on his control, he could be a reliable closer. Hanrahan pitched for team USA in the World Baseball Classic and has only pitched 4 innings for the Nationals this spring (giving up 2 ER). I look for him to stay the closer all season, picking up 25-30 saves in the process.

Setting up Hanrahan will be new acquistion Joe Beimel. He spent 2008 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 2.02 ERA in 71 games. He's a veteran lefty, something that last year's bullpen lacked. He's one of the few pitchers in this group that has a track record of being good. I don't expect Beimel to be the savior of this bullpen, but I think he'll be reliable, something I can't say about most of the pitchers on the staff.

The 7th-inning man will be last year's set up man, Saul Rivera. Rivera has arguably been the Nationals' most consistent reliever since his arrival in 2006, never posing an ERA more than 4. Last year opponents hit .277 off of him - up from .255 in 2007 - but he managed to keep runs off the board and had a respectable 3.96. On a good team, Rivera is a good middle-relief man. On a team like the Nationals, he is their 2nd-best reliever and 7th-inning man. Rivera has shown the ability to pitch lots of innings for a reliever - 93 in 2007 and 84 in 2008 - and is consistent. I expect a sub-4 ERA in 2009 and probably around 75 innings.

Now, to the middle relief. Here is where the question marks begin. First, I'll talk about Steven Shell. Before last season, Shell was an unknown, but he pitched wonderfully down the stretch, posting a 2.16 ERA in 50 innings last year. His WHIP (1.08) was fantastic and he nearly had a strikeout per innings (41 K in 50 IP). It's hard to guage how Shell will do this year because there have been numerous one-year wonders, but to start the season Shell will be in the bullpen. I think his ERA will go up and he'll finish with a mid-3 ERA.

Former starter Jason Bergmann has made his case for a bullpen spot this spring, failing to give up a run in 11 innings of work so far. Bergmann is the definition of an enigma, pitching like an ace one day and a minor leaguer the next. The switch to the bullpen could be a good thing for Bergmann, who seems to have adjusted well. He will most likely be the swingman and could even see a couple starts.

There is a heated competition for the second lefty spot in the bullpen (after Beimel) going on between Mike Hinckley and Will Ledezma. Hinckley was fantastic at the tail end of 2008, pitching 14 shutout innings and a 0.80 WHIP. He has a struggled this spring, posting a 6.52 ERA, and that could mean he will be sent to AAA in favor of Ledezma, a free agent signing who has a 1.69 ERA in 10 innings pitched. I think the team starts with Ledezma in the bullpen, but Hinckley will be see lots of innings this year, because injuries are inevitable.

The last bullpen spot is either going to Jesus Colome or Garrett Mock. Colome has a 0.90 ERA this spring and pitched well in the 2nd half of 2008, but he may be too inconsistent for the team to keep him. Mock, on the other hand, started for the Nationals in 2008 before switching to the bullpen. He had a 4.17 ERA last year and has a 4.22 spring ERA, but the team likes his makeup and his high strikeout numbers. I like his ability as a pitcher and think the team will keep him in the bullpen to start the season.

That makes the opening day bullpen look like this:

CL - Hanrahan
SU - Beimel
MR- Rivera
MR- Shell
MR - Bergmann
MR - Ledezma
MR - Mock


Tomorrow I'll talk about the rotation, and on Sunday I'll make my record prediction. (photo: USA Today)