Reason #1: The Steelers have already beaten the Ravens twice this year. Normally, that means that the Steelers would have the advantage here, but if you think that, you don't know the Ravens. Still instilled from the Billick era is a sense of pride in this team unmatched in any I know. Also instilled is a sense of undeniable hatred for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens are admittedly an arrogant bunch, but this will definitely play into their hands. There's no way the Ravens let the Steelers beat them three times in one year.
Reason #2: I don't know how beating a 4-12 and 9-8 team qualifies you as world beaters. The national media absolutely fell in love with the Steelers this week. They were on the cover of SI twice in a row, and the latest prognostication trend has been to shy away from predicting a close, hard fought game, and to say the Steelers are going to win along the lines of 27-10. Since the week 15 game - a truly epic game that showed just how much separates these two teams (a half-inch, if you recall), the Steelers have lost handedly to the Titans, beat a Browns team that quit in Week 10, had a bye, and then took care of a San Diego team that was only there because for some reason they have the Colts' number. In that same time frame, the Ravens beat the Cowboys in their last game in Texas Stadium, destroyed the Jaguars to clinch a playoff spot, walked all over the Dolphins in Miami, and made enough clutch plays to escape Tennessee with a win. You tell me who has more momentum.
Reason #3: I can fully envision a scenario in which the Steelers rely too heavily on Willie Parker for too long. That's been another theme of this Steeler resurgence: the resurgence of Willie Parker. I will be the first to admit that Parker was awfully impressive in gaining 146 yards against San Diego last week. However, that was against the Chargers' run D, ranked 11th in the league. I know, still solid, but not Baltimore's. Plus, there is Parker's history against the Ravens; he has never gotten over 70 yards. You can talk about what Chris Johnson did all you want, but Chris Johnson is faster than Parker is. Also, the Ravens were playing on a 6-day week last time, and they're playing an 8-day week this time.
Reason #4: No matter what parts are around them, lined up in the middle linebacker spot for the Baltimore Ravens today will be Bart Scott (pictured, above) and Ray Lewis. You forget how good Ray Lewis truly was against the Steelers in Week 4 this year until you go back and watch the game. It was the most dominating performance by any Ravens player all season. Then, there is Scott, who seemingly plays two good games a year, both against the Steelers. These two players, being - and I kid you not - 2 of the 4 defensive starters from the beginning of the year who are still playing healthy, will anchor this defense, and will be the reason Parker will go nowhere. Suggs is going to play, but even if he doesn't, then the Ravens would go to the 4-3, stick Marques Douglas at defensive end, and line Scott up at the outside linebacker to he can blitz Ben all day. He will rush the passer with a scary fervor.
Reason #5: As the saying goes, big time players make big time plays in big time games. No matter how much the offense struggled against the Titans and the Dolphins, if you look back at the games, plays were there that were left on the field. The offense has done a brilliant job of holding onto the ball and the defense has done a fantastic job taking it away. They played the two most turnover-savvy teams in the league these past two weeks and stole the game away from both because of the turnovers. Still, that may not be enough against the Steelers, and I expect rookie Joe Flacco to rise up the occasion. Remember what happened in the Dallas game after he fumbled on the 5? He led them down the field in a tone-setting drive that only netted three, but gave the offensive confidence for the rest of the game. Remember what happened in the Jacksonville game when Jacksonville went up 7-0? Flacco went off the deep end, completing something like 11 of 12 passes for 200 yards in the second quarter alone for three consecutive TD drives. Remember what happened in the Miami game when they up 3-0? The very next drive, Flacco led them down the field for the tying score. And remember what happened when Tennessee tied the game at 10? Flacco led the team down the field for the game tying field goal. He's done it all season. When he's needed to make a play, he has - more often than not to Derrick Mason (pictured, right), the Steeler Killer. He may need to make several plays today, and I think he will.
I'm saying the Ravens come away with this one, 17-16.
And because I'm 6-2 so far on my picks for this postseason, better than 12 of the 13 "experts" on ESPN, I'll pick the other game. In upset II, I like the Cardinals 27-17.
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