1. Indianapolis Colts: Yeah, I still have them at number one. In my mind, they have to be considered the favorite to win the AFC. They have the best quarterback in the league, they've been here before, and they have an underrated, fast defense.
2. Tennessee Titans: If you believe in defense, running the football, and playing at home, you believe in the Tennessee Titans. There are a lot of potentially terrific re-matches in the AFC playoffs, but perhaps none are as enticing as a Tennessee-Indy AFC championship game.
3. New York Giants: See exactly what I wrote about the Titans. Insert "Philadelphia" for "Indy" and insert "NFC divisional round matchup" for "AFC championship game" and it's perfect. Completely accidental, too.
4. Carolina Panthers: I've come to the conclusion that Jake Delhomme may be a great leader, but he's only an average quarterback. He has one of the two best wide receivers in the game catching anything that's thrown within five yards of him.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers: And the debate rages on as to whether Big Ben should have been playing or not. Me personally, I agreed with having him out there, if only because Pittsburgh has a bye this week. Having a bye for two weeks straight can be too much. By the way, is it a coincidence that the quarterbacks of the top five teams on this list have all been to super bowls?
6. Baltimore Ravens: They go from being unanimously picked against in Dallas to being everyone's sleeper favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. A number of things have to happen. First, they have to do better both on returning and covering kickoffs. Second, Joe Flacco can't have more than one turnover in any game. Third, they have to tackle better behind the line of scrimmage.
7. Miami Dolphins: They're far from a walk in the park during the first round for Baltimore. This is a team with a quarterback who can lead drives down the field because of his accuracy, and can use their running game for the big play. Turnover margin is the most important stat in the NFL, and the Dolphins are the best at it.
8. Atlanta Falcons: You have to wonder if there's enough playoff experience on this team for them to truly know what they're getting in to. Their top three guys on offense have never been in the spotlight quite like they are now. Mike Smith should have them prepared, though.
9. Minnesota Vikings: The Eagles are going to stack eight in the box every single down to do two things. Their primary goal will be to stop Adrian Peterson, but they also hope to confuse Tavaris Jackson. The Vikings have to counter with a few big runs by Peterson and Jackson's receivers helping him out by breaking tackles on things like slant routes.
10. Philadelphia Eagles: A lot of people, including myself, think that Philadelphia is going to go and Beat Minnesota this week. Why do I have them all the way down here, then? Because Philadelphia has shown this year that they have the ability to lay an egg like no other team. When they're playing their best, Philadelphia is a top-5 team. Can they play their best four weeks in a row, though?
11. San Diego Chargers: What a great first round matchup San Diego vs. Indianapolis will be. Indy can score on anyone; your only option is to score with them. San Diego has the ability to do that far more than Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Baltimore or Miami does. Philip Rivers has the opportunity to show the world why he was the NFL's highest rated quarterback this year.
12. Arizona Cardinals: Their only hope is that the offense remembers the way it was playing midseason. The Falcons have a fairly poor pass defense (number 21 in the league), so that bodes well for Arizona. Their interior line has to play like men on Saturday. If they get blown off the ball like they have been recently, the Cardinals simply won't get the ball enough to put up enough points.
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