AFC Championship: Why The Steelers are heading to Tampa

Fittingly, the Steelers and Ravens face off on Sunday at Heinz Field in the AFC Championship game. The two bitter rivals will meet for the third and final time this season, with a ticket to the Super Bowl on the line. Here's why, in my opinion, the Steelers will be headed to Tampa.

Reason #1: The Steelers have already beaten the Ravens twice, so they have proven to be able to win. The wins were both extremely close (a combined 7 points), but a win is a win, no matter how you slice it. Not to mention when a team sweeps another team in the regular season and meets them in the playoffs, the team that swept has won 11 of 18 times. 

Reason #2: Rookie Joe Flacco has been calm and collected during the playoffs, but he had a QB rating of 53.4 in two games versus the Steelers, and was sacked 7 times. In his two playoff wins so far, Flacco has been extremely average, with a QB rating of 59.1 versus the Dolphins (9 for 23, zero TDs or INTs) and 89.4 (11-22). Those numbers are far from fantastic, but Flacco has done a good job protecting the ball and he has been sacked ZERO times. The Steelers have brought pressure against Flacco in the two matchups. In the first game at Heinz Field, Flacco was good in the 1st half, but struggled in the 2nd half, the key play being a lost fumble for a Steelers touchdown. In the 2nd matchup, Flacco was bad: 11-28 with 2 interceptions. He was also sacked twice. The Ravens utilized an unbalanced line against James Harrison, and you can bank on Dick Labeau having a way to break that. Flacco will need to be on his game on Sunday, because he was very mediocre in Tennessee and his touchdown came on a deep ball. If the Steelers cover the deep ball to Clayton, they will be in good shape.

Reason #3: The Steelers offensive line has finally resembled a solid unit. Throughout the season, the offensive line has failed to produce a push off of the line of scrimmage and has failed to produce a reliable pocket for Ben Roethlisberger. The result: 46 sacks, a 3.8 yards per carry average for Willie Parker, and a 22nd ranked offense. Against the Chargers, the offensive line had arguably its bes

t game in 2 seasons, as it opened up holes for Parker and gave Roethlisberger time to throw (he was sacked once, on a cornerback blitz that Mewelde Moore failed to pickup). Parker had 5.4 yards a carry and ended up with 146 total yards. Rarely was he stopped in the backfield and he had numerous 10+ yard carries. He will most likely not have another 100 yard day against the stout Ravens defense, but a solid 75-80 yards from Parker may be enough to give the offense balance. Also, in pass protection, the line has improved mightily down the stretch, which allows Roethlisberger to get in a rhythm. Not to mention offensive coordinator Bruce Arians finally decided to utilize the I-formation and quick, easy throws, both of which moved the ball well for the Steelers.

Reason #4: The Baltimore Ravens have not had a rest since week 2, which wasn't much of a rest. Starting tailback Le'Ron McClain has

 powered the tough running game, but he is banged up and no doubt beginning to get worn down. Terrell Suggs (T-Sizzle) injured his shoulder against the Titans, and will not be at 100% on Sunday. A reduced role of Suggs is a huge factor in the Ravens pass rush, as he led them in sacks with 8 during the regular season. How much will fatigue play in the game? The Steelers had their bye week during the season and had another before the playoffs. They were clearly rested against the Chargers, the most obvious example being Willie Parker, who missed most of the season with injuries.

Reason #5: The Heinz Factor. Heinz Field was absolutely rocking last Sunday and it will be this weekend as well. Flacco has played in Miami and Tennessee, both good fanbases, but Heinz Field is a different demon. Ravens fans were able to infiltrate Nashville and Miami; do not expect the same in Pittsburgh. How will Flacco respond to such a hostile environment on such a big stage? I don't expect him to get flustered, but what if he's forced to turnovers early? And, of course, the other Heinz: Hines Ward. No one has gotten in the Ravens' heads more than Hines Ward. He hits hard, he makes big catches, and his smile makes defenses want to destroy him (and even put a bounty on him!). The problem is, they haven't been able to, and Ward has had key catches/plays in both matchups: the first game, he drew a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Ravens linebacker Jarrett Johnson and in the 2nd game, he had 3 enormous catches on the Steelers game-winning drive, all of which turned out to be first downs. Another interesting tidbit: Hines Ward is now the Steelers all-time leader in playoff receptions. Come playoff time, Hines comes to play.

Pittsburgh Steelers: What I Thought I Knew

Now that my heart rate has recovered from a crazy divisional playoff weekend, it's time to do a little posting. This is going to be a 12-part posting about every team in the playoffs. For each team, I am going to do a little post about what I thought I knew, what I know now, and what I expect. 

What I Thought I Knew Heading into the Playoffs: Steelers

1. Their defense is the best in the NFL, led by their linebackers, the best in the NFL. Post-divisional round analysis: TRUE

Don't let the 24 points San Diego put up on the board fool you. First, Philip Rivers was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season. Second, Darren Sproles was arguably the hottest player in the NFL after his game against Indianapolis. Third, after the Chargers' first drive, where they hit Vincent Jackson over the top for a brilliantly thrown 41 yard completion, the Chargers' offense was completely shut down until the game was out of reach. Rivers got his, but Sproles only finished with 15 yards on the day. As much as it pains me, I will concede that the Harrison-Woodley-Farrior-Foote (pictured, left)-Timmons group is the best position group in the NFL.

2. Pittsburgh has a very underrated group of receivers, and they get open often enough to make Ben's job a little easier. Post-divisional round analysis: TRUE

This is not to slight Ben's performance at all, but one drive to me stands out in particular. It was in the third quarter, when the Chargers desperately needed a stop, and they backed the Steelers into three separate 3rd and 8+ on the same drive. Every time, a Steeler wide receiver threaded his way into the middle of the San Diego zone and made the catches Ben rocketed in there. Hines Ward (pictured, right) is the leader of the group and a possession guy, but both Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington can beat you deep. 

3. Pittsburgh's offensive line woes will come back to haunt them; their lack of production running has been on them, not Willie Parker. Post-divisional round analysis: FALSE

Perhaps I shouldn't be so quick to throne them, but it's hard not to when you look at the game and you saw the lanes that Willie Parker had to run through the entire day. Also, unless I heard mistakenly, Roethlisberger was only hit one time the entire game. Of course, the offensive line has a much harder task ahead of them this Sunday, as they play the second, not the 25th, ranked defense. So far, so good, though, for an oft-maligned group. 

(Photo Credits: AP)

Despite Win, Problems lay ahead for Steelers

I still cannot believe the Steelers won last night. Big Ben used a little more of his magic and Mewelde Moore came up HUGE for the Steelers. I thought he was a great pickup when they signed him and it definitely showed.

Especially considering the Steelers got disasterous news last night. As most of you know, Willie Parker did not play last night and is most likely out until Week 7, the week after their bye week. Well, rookie Rashard Mendenhall started in his place. And did fine. However, the Steelers learned late last night that Mendenhall - who suffered a shoulder injury in I believe the 3rd quarter - is out for the season.

Not only that, but their sarting right guard Kendall Simmons suffered an achilles tendon tear and is also out for the season. Darnell Stapelton replaced Simmons, but I think the Steelers will move Willie Colon to RG (from RT) and place Trai Essex at RT (or just use Essex as RG). Either way, it's another blow to a team that is already without probowlers Willie Parker and Casey Hampton and starting DE Brett Keisel (to go along with injuries to starting punter Daniel Sepulveda, backup quarterback Charlie Batch, and backup linebackers Mike Humpal and Arnold Harrison).

The slew of injuries strikes an enormous blow into the Steelers' chances at winning the division not only because numerous key players are out, but also because the Ravens looked that good. With the injuries comes opportunity, however.

3rd down back Mewelde Moore is now more of an option on downs other than 3rd down. The Steelers can also bring running back Gary Russell off of the practice squad to handle the load. Russell, the former University of Minnesota back, is one player a lot of Steelers' fans like and many will be happy to see him get a chance. I think he can do fine for the timebeing, but the team should also check out the waiver wire to see who is available.

One name is Shaun Alexander. He hasn't been good since his record-breaking season, but the Steelers need someone who can carry the ball forward and not turn it over. I think he is at least worth a look. They also now need to find a replacement for Simmons, and I believe the most likely scenario is for them to call up left tackle Jeremy Parquet, who is a massive 6'6", 321 pounds.

The Steelers face a good Jacksonville team on a short week, so it will be interesting to see how they play. The Jaguars usually have their number and with all the injuries and the soreness that is lingering from last night's slughfest, I'm not sure the Steelers can pull it off. They're literally going to be limping into the bye week.

And while the win against Baltimore was huge, it is also bittersweet because the team (most notably the offense) is now weaker than it was beforehand and will have a tougher time stringing together victories.