New Season, Same Old Nats

I know it's been only two games, but the games have been such laughingstocks that I have to make a ranting post about it.

First, Manny Acta's job as manager is quickly becoming less and less stable. He plays obvious favorites, none more obvious than his handling of the outfield. He has to put Adam Dunn in left field, but he announced Milledge as the center fielder before spring training and named him leadoff hitter a mere week or so in. His stats give no reason to bat him leadoff, but Acta likes Milledge and could use the "he hit well last year" excuse to keep him there, despite the fact that Elijah Dukes was a little better and Josh Willingham was much better. Acta said Dukes is on the bench because of poor ST stats, well Manny, then why isn't the outfield Dunn-Kearns-Willingham, the three players who had the best spring? This only adds to the fact that Acta refuses to show any emotion in the dugout and has never called out his players for terrible performances.

Also, I find it baffling that Willingham can have a solid year last year - BETTER than Milledge's year - but cannot crack our outfield. Amazing. Oh, and he hasn't gotten an AB in two games, despite Acta assuring everyone that they would split at bats. Acta wants to pinch hit third catcher Josh Bard, so that the front office can decide if he's more worthy than Wil Nieves as backup. It's sickening.

Acta also demands that Ryan Zimmerman hit 3rd, which is completely ridiculous. He is far from a number 3 hitter and has never been comfortable there. They SHOULD put someone like Adam Dunn there. Oh, and Lastings Milledge at leadoff is a complete failure. 0/8 so far this year with 4 strikeouts. Guzman hit over .300 last year leading off, WHY CHANGE IT? Nick Johnson would be a perfect #2 hitter but Acta refuses to change it up. The stubborness is absurd and the favortism is prevalent. I'd be shocked if Milledge moves from leadoff before the middle of May. The team has shown a pattern of stubborness with the lineup, and it has hurt their production.

Second, the pitching staff is a joke. John Lannan, the supposed ace, got absolutely rocked yesterday. He was terrible. I know Lannan is better and the nerves could have gotten to him, so I'm not concerned about him. What I am concerned about is the bullpen and the rest of the rotation. Scott Olsen, tonight's starter, was worse than Lannan. He never hit 90 on his fastball and had no control. He was awful. It was embarassing to watch the Marlins tee off on yet another Nationals starter. Lannan and Olsen combined for 6 innings and 14 runs. That's solid production from your starters! After Olsen is Daniel Cabrera, who has never been a consistent starter for the Orioles and was far from good in spring training. Acta loves Cabrera so if he struggles, don't expect him to be demoted or released anytime soon. Behind Cabrera is rookie Shairon Martis, and you never know what you'll get from a rookie. Top prospect Jordan Zimmermann is the number five starter, but he is also a rookie - who knows what he'll be able to do.

The bullpen was terrible yesterday but was more stable Tuesday. Julian Tavarez was bad Monday but was much better Tuesday so I won't complain about him. Will Ledezma was awful on Monday and has a track record of being terrible in major league action, despite good spring training numbers. It does not look good for the Nats' bullpen this year. I'm honestly scared thinking about how many runs they will give up.


It's April 7th, and I'm already wondering if the Nats can win 50 games this year. All of my optimism is completely destroyed, and it's a depressing feeling to know your team could be out of contention by May 1st.

Show Today/Podcast Tomorrow

Hey guys, sorry I haven't been on here too much of late, but Tyler's been keeping you up to date with some really good stuff.

Just wanted to send out a quick reminder to tune in today from 5 to 6 to listen as Tyler and I go division-by-division and give our two cents about the 2009 MLB season.

Also, over the next few days I will be posting podcasts of tonight's show, and possibly one or two previous shows so you can laugh at how wrong our predictions generally are. 

Thanks for your support.

2009 MLB Preview

The first official pitch of the 2009 MLB season will be thrown tonight in Philadelphia as the Braves take on the World Series Champions of 2008. Will the Phillies repeat? I don't think so. Take a look at my projected standings for the 2009 season:

National League

East
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
Florida Marlins

Central
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros

West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres

Wild Card: Cardinals

American League

East
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles

Central
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians

West
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland A's
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners

Wild Card: Yankees

On Monday, Tony and I will go through the divisions in our full MLB season preview. I'll go more in-depth with my standings predictions and we'll both offer our predictions for the playoffs and World Series. Tune in!

Nationals Finalize 25-man roster

My starting rotation preview is below, so just scroll down to take a look. One player in the rotation will not be listed on the 25-man roster to start the season (Jordan Zimmermann) because of free agency/arbitration reasons. The Nationals will have to send someone down (or cut someone) on April 19th, Zimmermann's first start. The roster is below, or found here:

Pitching Rotation
LHP John Lannan
LHP Scott Olsen
RHP Daniel Cabrera
RHP Shairon Martis

Infielders
Ronnie Belliard
Alberto Gonzalez
Cristian Guzman
Willie Harris
Nick Johnson
Ryan Zimmerman

Bullpen
LHP Joe Beimel
RHP Joel Hanrahan
LHP Mike Hinckley
LHP Wil Ledezma
RHP Saul Rivera
RHP Steven Shell
RHP Julian Tavarez

Outfielders
Elijah Dukes
Adam Dunn
Austin Kearns
Lastings Milledge
Josh Willingham

Catchers
Josh Bard
Jesus Flores
Wil Nieves

On the 19th, either Bard or Nieves will be sent down to make room for Zimmermann. When Anderson Hernandez (the projected starting second baseman) comes back in a week, expect Alberto Gonzalez to be sent down.

2009 Washington Nationals Preview: Rotation

Sorry for not putting this up on Thursday - 2 exams and a cold really hampered me this week. Now I'm feeling better and have some free time to go a good preview of the Nationals' starting rotation.

The opening day starter will be 25-year old John Lannan, who was the ace of the staff last year (if you could call him that). His sub-.500 record (9-15) does not indicate how well he pitched; he finished with a 3.91 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .252 batting average. He was consistent despite receiving no run support from the offense. This spring, Lannan has been fantastic. Prior to his final start, he had not given up more than 2 runs in a start. His ERA finished at 3.97 as he prepares to take on the Marlins on Monday. Lannan is the team's most reliable pitcher despite his age and inexperience, and has proven to be durable. I think Lannan's 2009 campaign will feature at least one injury, if for no other reason than he's due for one. He's tough and talented, and I think he will have a great year. I envision a 12-7 kind of record with a mid-3 ERA.

Following Lannan will be offseason acquisition Scott Olsen, the former Marlins pitcher. Olsen had a respectable season in 2008, finishing with an 8-11 record and a 4.20 ERA. The team was hoping he could stabilize the rotation, but this spring he has been very hittable, giving up 40 hits in 29.2 innings. His velocity is down and he is certainly struggling. Questions about his chain cigarette smoking have come up among fans and if he is struggling early on it will really put a strain on the rotation. Hopefully he can get it together by his first start. I think he will be average this season, probably a below .500 record and around a 5 ERA. The velocity drop worries me.

It doesn't get much better after Olsen. Free agent signing Daniel Cabrera has a 6.39 spring ERA and has overall not been impressive. He hasn't had an ERA lower than 5 in two years and has never had a sub-4 ERA. His strikeout numbers are down and his walks are still up. He is wild, unpredictable, and inconsistent. This spring he has not been good in any of his starts, except for a 5-inning, 2 run start vs. a minor league team. I honestly believe Cabrera will be out of the rotation by June, if not sooner. I don't see pitching coach Randy St. Claire becoming a miracle-worker with this lost cause. I predict a 5+ ERA and eventually he is cut or designated for assignment. He could be moved to the bullpen, but I think that experiment will not result in any great turnaround.

The number four starter may be better than Olsen and Cabrera. It is young Shairon Martis (pictured, right), who was called up in September last season and pitched in five games (four starts), finishing with a 5.66 ERA. The ERA is deceiving, though, because one poor start skewed it. He also had 23 strikeouts in 20 innings. This spring, he has a 2.31 ERA and his velocity has jumped up into the mid-90s. The young 22-year old will probably have an up-and-down year, but the team will rely on him to make lots of starts. I see around a 4.5 ERA for Martis in his rookie year.

The Nationals' fifth starter may end up being the best on the rotation. Jordan Zimmermann will start the season in AAA until April 19th for arbitration reasons. He has had the best spring of any Nationals pitcher, and it isn't even close. He had one poor start - when he had the flu - that ballooned his ERA to 3.14, but for the most part was electric. He had 20 strikeouts and only 2 walks, and I believe all of the runs he gave up came in one start (5 ER). His WHIP was barely above 1, contiuing his dominance from last year's minor leagues, when he shot through the leagues. I expect Zimmermann to be real good this season and compete for the rookie of the year award. He has ace-worthy stuff and great makeup.

The players who will be called up for injuries will include Collin Balester, Tyler Clippard, Kip Wells, Josh Towers, Garrett Mock, Gustavo Chacin, Craig Stanmen and possibly Ross Detwiler (who will need to pitch great to start the season). The rotation is not very deep and if injuries take Lannan or Zimmermann out the Nationals are in trouble. It could be one of the worst in baseball.

Sunday I'll post my division-by-division projected standings!

Events at Kentucky Could Lead to Stephenson at Maryland

Lance Stephenson has still not given any indication when he will announce what college he will attend next year. Before a solid showing at the McDonald's All-American game (12 points, six assists, three steals), the only thing Stephenson divulged to reporters were that his top three choices were still Kansas, Maryland and St. John's. 

He may be holding off because of reasons outside of his control. 

Coach John Calipari (pictured, left) leaving Memphis to go to Kentucky will shake up the entire recruiting world, and Stephenson is in the middle of that picture. 

Recruits typically choose a school in equal parts because of their relationship with the coaching staff and because of the school itself. So, when a coach goes, it is logical that the recruits for that school, especially if they were torn in their decision-making process to begin with, to attend their second choice school.

Enter Xavier Henry, widely considered to be the single best prospect coming out of high school this year. Henry is a 6'5 shooting guard, who committed to Memphis after limiting his choices down to Memphis and Kansas. Odds are Henry will no longer attend Memphis because of Calipari's absence. One of two choices are then logical for Henry: attend Kansas, his second choice school, or follow his desired coach to Kentucky. 

However, Henry may then look at Kentucky's roster and see that Jodie Meeks will likely return for his senior season. Jodie Meeks (pictured, right) is a 6'4 shooting guard who averaged 23.7 ppg last year. No matter how good Henry is, he's not starting over Meeks. Henry also has his reputation to consider: he's a "one and done" player (a player who only intends to play college ball for one year before leaving for the NBA), and he doesn't want to play second fiddle to anyone.

So, it is not unreasonable at all to say Henry ends up at Kansas. Well, if Kansas is bringing in one freshman 6'5 shooting guard in Henry, why bring in another one in Stephenson? This is not to mention Kansas's scholarship situation, and the fact they would have to force some transfers to make room for Stephenson on their roster in the first place. 

So, what then for Stephenson? It really leaves Maryland and St. John's, and Maryland is clearly in the lead there. The only other option for Stephenson is Kentucky, even though he neither looked at Kentucky nor Memphis previously. Calipari has that way, however, and will likely try to convince Stephenson to attend, especially if he loses Henry.

It's a domino effect from all over, but the bottom line to take from it all is that Maryland has a better shot of landing Stephenson than they did a week ago. Maybe even a good shot. 

(Photo Credits: AP)

2009 Washington Nationals Preview: Bullpen

This year's bullpen will no doubt be a large question mark for the Nationals. Joel Hanrahan, the current closer, had an up-and-down 2008 after replacing Jon Rauch (who was traded to Arizona). His ERA was relatively high for a closer - 3.95 - and he had 4 blown saves in 13 save opportunities. The one promising stat for Hanrahan is his strikeout numbers; in 2008, he had 93 strikeouts in 84.1 innings. He is far from a sure thing at closer, but if he can work on his control, he could be a reliable closer. Hanrahan pitched for team USA in the World Baseball Classic and has only pitched 4 innings for the Nationals this spring (giving up 2 ER). I look for him to stay the closer all season, picking up 25-30 saves in the process.

Setting up Hanrahan will be new acquistion Joe Beimel. He spent 2008 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 2.02 ERA in 71 games. He's a veteran lefty, something that last year's bullpen lacked. He's one of the few pitchers in this group that has a track record of being good. I don't expect Beimel to be the savior of this bullpen, but I think he'll be reliable, something I can't say about most of the pitchers on the staff.

The 7th-inning man will be last year's set up man, Saul Rivera. Rivera has arguably been the Nationals' most consistent reliever since his arrival in 2006, never posing an ERA more than 4. Last year opponents hit .277 off of him - up from .255 in 2007 - but he managed to keep runs off the board and had a respectable 3.96. On a good team, Rivera is a good middle-relief man. On a team like the Nationals, he is their 2nd-best reliever and 7th-inning man. Rivera has shown the ability to pitch lots of innings for a reliever - 93 in 2007 and 84 in 2008 - and is consistent. I expect a sub-4 ERA in 2009 and probably around 75 innings.

Now, to the middle relief. Here is where the question marks begin. First, I'll talk about Steven Shell. Before last season, Shell was an unknown, but he pitched wonderfully down the stretch, posting a 2.16 ERA in 50 innings last year. His WHIP (1.08) was fantastic and he nearly had a strikeout per innings (41 K in 50 IP). It's hard to guage how Shell will do this year because there have been numerous one-year wonders, but to start the season Shell will be in the bullpen. I think his ERA will go up and he'll finish with a mid-3 ERA.

Former starter Jason Bergmann has made his case for a bullpen spot this spring, failing to give up a run in 11 innings of work so far. Bergmann is the definition of an enigma, pitching like an ace one day and a minor leaguer the next. The switch to the bullpen could be a good thing for Bergmann, who seems to have adjusted well. He will most likely be the swingman and could even see a couple starts.

There is a heated competition for the second lefty spot in the bullpen (after Beimel) going on between Mike Hinckley and Will Ledezma. Hinckley was fantastic at the tail end of 2008, pitching 14 shutout innings and a 0.80 WHIP. He has a struggled this spring, posting a 6.52 ERA, and that could mean he will be sent to AAA in favor of Ledezma, a free agent signing who has a 1.69 ERA in 10 innings pitched. I think the team starts with Ledezma in the bullpen, but Hinckley will be see lots of innings this year, because injuries are inevitable.

The last bullpen spot is either going to Jesus Colome or Garrett Mock. Colome has a 0.90 ERA this spring and pitched well in the 2nd half of 2008, but he may be too inconsistent for the team to keep him. Mock, on the other hand, started for the Nationals in 2008 before switching to the bullpen. He had a 4.17 ERA last year and has a 4.22 spring ERA, but the team likes his makeup and his high strikeout numbers. I like his ability as a pitcher and think the team will keep him in the bullpen to start the season.

That makes the opening day bullpen look like this:

CL - Hanrahan
SU - Beimel
MR- Rivera
MR- Shell
MR - Bergmann
MR - Ledezma
MR - Mock


Tomorrow I'll talk about the rotation, and on Sunday I'll make my record prediction. (photo: USA Today)