It wasn't all bad, though, and that should be duly noted. The Terps beat UNC at UNC. Despite all of the above, the Terps were perhaps a win away from the NCAA tournament. Positive notes from last year include the elevation of play from Greivis Vasquez, who, as a sophomore, was Second Team All-ACC and had numbers to be on the first team. Landon Milbourne took a big step forward last year, too. As a freshman, he only averaged 1.0 ppg and 0.8 rpg, but last year upped his totals to 8.2 ppg and 3.5 rpg. Of course, when you think of Landon Milboune, you tend to think of this.
However, because of last year's finish, coupled with the loss of starting power forward James Gist and center Bambale Osby, the Terps are officially projected to be 7th in the ACC (see where all the conference teams stack up here), and lower in other publications. In ESPN's Dick Vitale's preseason top 40, the Terps do not make an appearance.
Questions abound about the program. Sportline.com's college basketball writer Gary Parrish has Gary Williams on his list of top 10 coaches to be fired. Many people are beginning to grow tired of upper-echelon recruits from Maryland leaving to go to other schools (Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, and Ty Lawson are only a few examples). Many people are beginning to grow tired of the NIT appearances (3 of the past 4 years) after the team's 2002 national championship. Many people are beginning to grow tired of the top recruits that Maryland gets (Mike Jones, for example) not panning out. Many are considering this to be a make or break year for the longtime coach.
However, after extensive thought and watching the team's intrasquad scrimmage, I've decided that Maryland turns it around this year. Here's why.
Backcourt: One of the best in the ACC
- Eric Hayes has played the best out of every member of the team this offseason. He could always shoot, but some questioned his ability to get open and his ball control, especially during big games. The big games part we won't know about until it happens, but I can tell you that this will be a Eric Hayes we haven't seen before. He has perfected the one-hand floater and can still bomb from deep. In addition, he can take defender off the dribble, something he hasn't been able to do before. I saw him do it multiple times against Adrian Bowie, one of the Terps' fastest players and bester defenders.
- If Hayes can successfully run the point like he has done during practice, Greivis Vasquez will be allowed to play his more natural position: shooting guard. This will take the ball out of his hands less, meaning less turnovers. However, this will also mean that his assists (he was tops in the ACC last year) might also decrease. Nonetheless, this is the better position for Vasquez because of how well he slashes to the basket. He is not a terrific shooter, but when he gets hot, he can knock 'em down.
- The bench is what makes this backcourt so great, though. Besides Hayes, the best player in the scrimmages has been Cliff Tucker. He has not been solid defensively, which irks - to say the least - Gary Williams. He has shown quickness and athleticism I didn't know he had, though, and has been knocking down his jumpers from everywhere.
- Adrian Bowie is still afraid to shoot the ball, and doesn't run the offense that well. However, his quickness allows him to be lethal in transition, and one of the Terps' better defenders.
- Sean Mosley is the real question mark. He hasn't done too much in the scrimmages, but will certainly get better throughout the season. Right now, he is one thing that the Terps really lack: a solid, reliable player. He won't have many turnovers, he'll stick to his guy defensively, and he'll knock down a jumper. He needs to get more involved in the offense.
Frontcourt: They won't score, but you may have a tough time scoring against them.
- Of course, this group took a huge hit with the losses of Osby, Gist, and top recruit/transfer Gus Gilchrist. Those losses hurt less than you think, though, when you look closely at the numbers.
- Jerome Burney this year will play the role of Bambale Osby. Osby had 11.5 ppg and 6.5 rpg, as well as 69 blocks. Jerome Burney will match those numbers. He has looked like a monster on the defensive end, blocking 6 shots in the latest scrimmage. His height (6'9) and athleticism will allow him to be near double digit rebounds every game.
- Landon Milbourne and Braxton Dupree will play the role of James Gist. Gist put up big stats last year: 16 ppg, 8 rpg, 77 blocks. Gist, and this went largely unnoticed, largely disappeared when it mattered, though. Consider his 8 points against Ohio. Consider his 3 points and 4 rebounds against American. I will give him credit for his strong performances against UNC and the first time against Duke, but where was he at the end of the year? 7 points vs. VT, 10 points at Miami, a 31 point explosion against Wake, and then shooting less than 50% for 15 against Clemson.
Meanwhile, Milbourne has impressed me. He's 6'7, but plays taller because of how tall he can jump. He can also knock down the outside jumper much better than Gist. If they put Milbourne as a power forward, he will also be much quicker than those he's matched up against and should be able to drive past them from the perimeter.
He'll hold his own defensively, but that is where Braxton Dupree steps in. Nobody will make bigger strides this season than Braxton. He was making progress towards the end of the first semester last year, but then dropped off after showing up well overweight after Christmas. He's in shape, now, however, and Gary Williams has made sure of it. In the previous scrimmage, the team played four 10-minute segments of the black team having 7 players and the red team having 5. Gary kept switching the teams so some players could get rest. The only player who he kept on the red team all four times? Braxton Dupree. He'll be a force defensively, and if he develops some moves offensively, it will just be a bonus.
- Newcomer Steve Goins has size, but is unpolished and probably won't get much playing time.
- Dave Neal will be Dave Neal. Don't make fun; he will play a key role on this team.
Intangibles: All of them
- Gary Williams is feeling the heat.
- This isn't the first, and won't be the last, time that Gary will overachieve with his talent.
- This is an embarrassed team. They came to play for Maryland, not Florida State. They know they need to be better.
- Comcast Center will rock it this year. Everyone knows how important of a season this is.
Bottom Line: You heard it here first, the Terps get back in the dance.
- There is little lost from last year's team that won't be adequately replaced this year.
- A very young team last year is a whole year more experienced.
- Vasquez won't have to play point, and will be the leader that Gist should have been.
- Projected starting lineup:
PG: Hayes, backed up by Bowie
SG: Vasquez: backed up by Mosley
SF: Milbourne, backed up by Cliff Tucker
PF: Dupree, backed up Neal
C: Burney, backed up by a rotation
- Other lineups I see involve three guards with Vasquez at the 3; a three guard lineup with Milbourne at the 4 and Dupree at the 5; 4 guard lineup with Burney at center. Not lying.
- The keys will be if Hayes can play a solid point guard for the entire year, and whether Milbourne can defend against power forwards in the ACC. I think they will.
Prediction: 21-9 (9-7)
(Photo Credits: AP and The Washington Post)
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