Oh, and if you don't really care about all my logic, just skip to the bottom of the post.
The Elite Teams: Nothing has changed about the teams at the top of the ACC; there is still clearly a top 4: UNC, Duke, Wake and Clemson. I said from the very beginning the Terps would have to go 2-4 against these top teams. At the time, they were 0-1, since then they've gone 0-2, putting them at a not-so-stellar 0-3.
Did you honestly expect that, when you play 3 road games and 3 home games against these teams, that you would have to win one of the road games? I wouldn't. I still hold by my position they will either beat UNC or Duke. I also said in my original post that would leave us having to beat Clemson on the road or Wake at home. Well, they lost to Clemson on the road. That leaves Wake at home with perhaps the season on the line.
The Really Good Teams: Nothing has changed about these guys either. Outside of the four locks, there are 4 other strong teams in the ACC that have been getting tournament talk. In fact, in ESPN's recent bracketology, all four of these teams were slated to be in the Big Dance: VT, BC, Miami and FSU. I said in my original post the Terps would have to go 2-3 against these guys; heartbreaking losses against Miami and FSU ensued, and the Terps would have to go 2-1 against them. The night of that post, the Terps blew the lead against BC, leaving them with two must-win games against Miami and VT.
They won both of those games. In this regard, the Terps did everything they needed to do.
The Bottom Teams: Once again, in three weeks, nothing has really changed about the ACC pecking order, as GT, UVA and NCST are still at the bottom. I said the Terps would have to go 4-1 in their five games against these teams. When I published the original post, the Terps needed to go 2-1. By virtue or a harrowing victory against GT, the Terps now only need to go 1-1.
Their two games remaining are the two toughest games they will face against these bottom teams: the road games against Virginia, who always plays them tough, and an underrated NC State team. They should come away from those with one victory, though, probably at Virginia.
Bottom Line: To have a shot at making the NCAA tournament, the Terps need to ...
1. Win one of their next games. If they lose both, the Terps would need to win at least 4 games in a row to close out the season. If they win both, the Terps only need to win one game the rest of the year.
2. Win two of their next three games after that. If they beat NCST and UVA, they will need a good show in the ACC tournament. If they win the Wake game plus one other, they should be good.
3. Not lose by 20+ anymore. It's really gotten embarrassing.
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