Monday, February 23, 2009

In 4.3 seconds, a stock skyrockets

The NFL Combine may be the single most overrated event in professional sports. The fact that some people sit on their couches to watch guys in t-shirts and shorts run, jump, and weigh in is ridiculous. If you're lucky, you'll see a QB throw some easy routes to a wide receiver. Exciting stuff.

That said, it's still important. The 40-yard dash is the biggest aspect of the combine and can make or break a draft prospect's chances. Penn State WR Derrick Williams, for example, ran a 4.58, much slower than many expected and a time that will hurt his stock (he was a borderline day one pick as it was). His teammate, Deon Butler, ran sub-4.4, and may be picked before Williams.

On the other hand, Maryland's very own Darrius Heyward-Bey clocked in at 4.30, the fastest by a WR this year and the second-fastest since 2000. A 40-time doesn't single-handedly make a reciever a lower pick. Absolutely not. But it can really help a guy like Heyward-Bey.

Think about it from a GM or scout's point of view. Here is a guy who is 6 foot 3, 200 pounds. He's a big wide receiver, no doubt. He's also known for his speed. 2 years ago he burned Miami for 2 touchdowns on go-routes. The problem is, he doesn't have anywhere near the numbers of a guy like Crabtree or Maclin. Still, the size and possible speed is hard to ignore. There are lots of reasons for the low numbers - Maryland's offesne, a weak-armed QB, no other threats in the passing game, etc. You project him to be around 20-32 in the draft.

Then, he runs the fastest time of any receiver at the combine. He explodes to a 4.3 40-time. You also hear Michael Crabtree is out for 6-10 weeks (not like he'd slip a lot, still a top-10 pick). Oh, baby. Now scouts know he's not just fast, but blazing. Combine that with the fact that he's a big wide receiver and has no real injury history...you get a Randy Moss type wide receiver (I'm not saying he's as good as Moss, but the size and speed is similar). Heyward-Bey was faster than Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, and many others who were more productive in their years in college.

In a mere 4.3 seconds, Heyward-Bey may have improved his stock from late first-rounder to mid-first rounder. To some, that may not be a big difference. I think it is. Before the combine, he was slated to go to a top NFL like Baltimore or Tennessee. Can you imagine Baltimore with a guy like Heyward-Bey? Flacco has a strong arm and can hit him in stride deep down the field. Cam Cameron likes reverses and Heyward-Bey is excellent at those. I don't even want to think about him in a Titans uniform. Now, however, he could rise to a team like Chicago, San Diego, or Minnesota, a mere four picks from Baltimore. An earlier team could feel a need to take a chance on a raw talent like Heyward-Bey's.

All scouts need to do is look at this video or this video.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

i really, really want heyward-bey. really bad.

Tony Herman said...

me too Tejada. me too.