In 4.3 seconds, a stock skyrockets

The NFL Combine may be the single most overrated event in professional sports. The fact that some people sit on their couches to watch guys in t-shirts and shorts run, jump, and weigh in is ridiculous. If you're lucky, you'll see a QB throw some easy routes to a wide receiver. Exciting stuff.

That said, it's still important. The 40-yard dash is the biggest aspect of the combine and can make or break a draft prospect's chances. Penn State WR Derrick Williams, for example, ran a 4.58, much slower than many expected and a time that will hurt his stock (he was a borderline day one pick as it was). His teammate, Deon Butler, ran sub-4.4, and may be picked before Williams.

On the other hand, Maryland's very own Darrius Heyward-Bey clocked in at 4.30, the fastest by a WR this year and the second-fastest since 2000. A 40-time doesn't single-handedly make a reciever a lower pick. Absolutely not. But it can really help a guy like Heyward-Bey.

Think about it from a GM or scout's point of view. Here is a guy who is 6 foot 3, 200 pounds. He's a big wide receiver, no doubt. He's also known for his speed. 2 years ago he burned Miami for 2 touchdowns on go-routes. The problem is, he doesn't have anywhere near the numbers of a guy like Crabtree or Maclin. Still, the size and possible speed is hard to ignore. There are lots of reasons for the low numbers - Maryland's offesne, a weak-armed QB, no other threats in the passing game, etc. You project him to be around 20-32 in the draft.

Then, he runs the fastest time of any receiver at the combine. He explodes to a 4.3 40-time. You also hear Michael Crabtree is out for 6-10 weeks (not like he'd slip a lot, still a top-10 pick). Oh, baby. Now scouts know he's not just fast, but blazing. Combine that with the fact that he's a big wide receiver and has no real injury history...you get a Randy Moss type wide receiver (I'm not saying he's as good as Moss, but the size and speed is similar). Heyward-Bey was faster than Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, and many others who were more productive in their years in college.

In a mere 4.3 seconds, Heyward-Bey may have improved his stock from late first-rounder to mid-first rounder. To some, that may not be a big difference. I think it is. Before the combine, he was slated to go to a top NFL like Baltimore or Tennessee. Can you imagine Baltimore with a guy like Heyward-Bey? Flacco has a strong arm and can hit him in stride deep down the field. Cam Cameron likes reverses and Heyward-Bey is excellent at those. I don't even want to think about him in a Titans uniform. Now, however, he could rise to a team like Chicago, San Diego, or Minnesota, a mere four picks from Baltimore. An earlier team could feel a need to take a chance on a raw talent like Heyward-Bey's.

All scouts need to do is look at this video or this video.

A Good Move, A Bad Move, and a Risky Move

It's NFL off-season time. More specifically, it's NFL franchising time. Before free agency begins at 12:01 AM on February 27th, teams across the league have been slapping the franchise tag on some of their best players. For those of you unfamiliar, placing the franchise tag on a player means:

1. The player gets a one year deal, valued at the average of the top 5 paid players at his position.

2. The player is forced to accept the deal.

3. Each team can only use one franchise deal per year.

4. If a player gets franchised two years in a row, his salary for the second year will be valued at 120% of his value the first year.

5. A player can not be franchised more than two years in a row. 

Players typically don't like it because they want long-term deals with fat signing bonuses at the beginning of them. Here's a look at three players who have recently had the franchise tag placed on them by their respective teams:

Darren Sproles - RB - San Diego Chargers - $6.62 million in 2009

For Sproles: Scary Move ...  Sproles knows now that he is "the guy" in San Diego - at least for one year. He is still sort of an unknown commodity; if you remember, he really only came on at the end of last season into the playoffs. Even if he plays well this year, his contract now won't increase, and unless his production is off-the-charts, his pay will likely decrease after this year. 

For Chargers: Bad Move ... I understand wanting to keep Sproles around, especially with the uncertainty surrounding LaDainian Tomlinson and his future in San Diego. Simply put, though, they overpaid him. These small, speedster-type guys are often injury-prone, and teams can scheme against him. Despite what we saw in the playoffs, I am very comfortable in telling you that Darren Sproles is not the third best running back in the NFL. 

Terrell Suggs - DE/LB - Baltimore Ravens - $10.20 million in 2009

For Suggs: Good Move ... Why wouldn't this be a good move for Suggs? Not only is he getting paid off the charts because of the 120% rule, but it guarantees that he is going to be given a long-term deal after this year. Even if he gets injured, he is completely proven. Every single team in the NFL would want to pay Terrell Suggs.

For Ravens: Good Move ... They may be overpaying him slightly, but it's a good move for the Ravens because it got Suggs out of the way. They can now focus their time and energy to resigning Ray Lewis and Jason Brown to multi-year deals. 

Matt Cassel - QB - New England Patriots - $14.65 million in 2009

For Cassel: Bad Move ... When the Patriots did this, they guaranteed Cassel that one of two things were going to happen. He now knows he either going to be traded before the season begins, or he's going to be Tom Brady's backup again in New England this year. Even if the latter is true, he knows he will be signing a long-term deal next year with someone. All this did for Cassel was put off the inevitable. 

For Patriots: Good Move ... They guaranteed themselves Cassel if Brady is not ready to start the season. It'll be a great move if they're sure Brady will be ready to go. Then, they can dump Cassel and his high number on some other team, and pick up boat-loads of draft picks so they can start a new dynasty. Leave it to New England. 

Where Maryland Basketball Stands: Revisited

Remember this post? In it, I laid out exactly how Maryland was going to make the NCAA Tournament this year. More than three weeks later, you're probably chuckling to yourself, saying, "Well that all got blown up." In retrospect ... it didn't. Let's take a look.

Oh, and if you don't really care about all my logic, just skip to the bottom of the post. 

The Elite Teams: Nothing has changed about the teams at the top of the ACC; there is still clearly a top 4: UNC, Duke, Wake and Clemson. I said from the very beginning the Terps would have to go 2-4 against these top teams. At the time, they were 0-1, since then they've gone 0-2, putting them at a not-so-stellar 0-3. 

Did you honestly expect that, when you play 3 road games and 3 home games against these teams, that you would have to win one of the road games? I wouldn't. I still hold by my position they will either beat UNC or Duke. I also said in my original post that would leave us having to beat Clemson on the road or Wake at home. Well, they lost to Clemson on the road. That leaves Wake at home with perhaps the season on the line. 

The Really Good Teams: Nothing has changed about these guys either. Outside of the four locks, there are 4 other strong teams in the ACC that have been getting tournament talk. In fact, in ESPN's recent bracketology, all four of these teams were slated to be in the Big Dance: VT, BC, Miami and FSU. I said in my original post the Terps would have to go 2-3 against these guys; heartbreaking losses against Miami and FSU ensued, and the Terps would have to go 2-1 against them. The night of that post, the Terps blew the lead against BC, leaving them with two must-win games against Miami and VT.

They won both of those games. In this regard, the Terps did everything they needed to do. 

The Bottom Teams: Once again, in three weeks, nothing has really changed about the ACC pecking order, as GT, UVA and NCST are still at the bottom. I said the Terps would have to go 4-1 in their five games against these teams. When I published the original post, the Terps needed to go 2-1. By virtue or a harrowing victory against GT, the Terps now only need to go 1-1. 

Their two games remaining are the two toughest games they will face against these bottom teams: the road games against Virginia, who always plays them tough, and an underrated NC State team. They should come away from those with one victory, though, probably at Virginia. 

Bottom Line: To have a shot at making the NCAA tournament, the Terps need to ...

1. Win one of their next games. If they lose both, the Terps would need to win at least 4 games in a row to close out the season. If they win both, the Terps only need to win one game the rest of the year. 

2. Win two of their next three games after that. If they beat NCST and UVA, they will need a good show in the ACC tournament. If they win the Wake game plus one other, they should be good. 

3. Not lose by 20+ anymore. It's really gotten embarrassing. 

Nats Sign Adam Dunn

Now, for some pleasant news from the world of baseball: The Nationals have signed Adam Dunn. (Doug McKinney of Comcast SportsNet broke the story on his blog here)

Dunn's deal works out perfectly for the Nats. It's being reported that it is a two-year deal, worth 20 million dollars a year. The salary seems fine, and the length is exactly what Nationals fans wanted. By the time his contract is up, top prospects Michael Burgess and Chris Marrero will be ready for full-time MLB play. The deal won't cripple the Nats with an old outfielder (Dunn will be 30 in November) and it gives them a legitimate left-handed power threat in the middle of the order. Of the current Nationals players, two players - Ryan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes - were potential 30+ home run hitters. Both of those players bat right, as do Jesus Flores and Lastings Milledge (Josh Willingham also is a power threat, but his role is unknown with this signing).

Nick Johnson, the current Nationals first baseman, is better known for his injuries than his play. I don't expect him to last past May, which would let the Nats move Dunn or Willingham to first base, though the defensive play would suffer.

I anticipate a trade during spring training, possibly involving the slew of AAA outfielders the Nationals have (Roger Bernadina, Leonard Davis, Justin Maxwell), or one of the outfielders currently on the major league roster (Austin Kearns the primary player the Nats would want to move, along with Wily Mo Pena, who I expect to be cut).

It's a good day to be a Nats fan, and that's not something I've been able to say for at least a year.

The Ray Lewis Interview

I completely messed up on this one. I promised a post about the over-blown Ray Lewis interview, and completely had the wrong interview. What I have to say about it now is completely the same as everything else you've heard. Here's hoping Ray is a Raven next year; the more days pass that he isn't, the less faith I have, though. 

Alex Rodriguez Ruined Baseball's One Hope

Let me preface this post by saying that I'm a disenchanted baseball fan, the kind of fan that baseball once had and that baseball has been needing to come back to the game.

The discovery that Alex Rodriguez (pictured, left) took steroids from 2001 to 2003 will in all likelihood not hurt baseball's attendance this year. There are thousands of die-hard Philadelphia, Anaheim, Boston, and Chicago fans that could not care less that A-Rod is now A-Fraud. (Sorry, I like that one and couldn't resist.) 

What about those malcontented with the sport, though? This works on both sides of the spectrum. On one side, you have the people like me, who, perhaps thinking that the sport was cleaned up after the Mitchell Report, were gradually beginning to come back, and even watched the World Series last year. On the other side, you have the baseball purists, not necessarily fans of a given team, but fans of baseball. I'm talking about the old-timers. The game is as foreign to them as the substances entering the 104 players about to be named in the SI report. They don't want to see cheaters either. 

Baseball just lost both of these types of fans. Forgive all the people like me who have a problem with a sport whose top two home run hitters of all time (just going out on a wide, wide limb and assuming A-Rod becomes number one) have both been accused of becoming as good as they have become by cheating. Oh, and by the way, this is neither here nor there, but I also have a problem with a sport who doesn't accept their career hits leader into the Hall of Fame. 

Baseball just lost both of those types of fans because casual fans everywhere just lost hope in the fact that pure talent alone can get you anywhere in this sport. The next in line that could potentially become the home run king is Ryan Howard, who you can tell is clean just by looking at him. He's been hurt too often in his career, though. 

It's just sad because of what a positive step last season was. The Red Sox weren't back in the series. Instead, it was the worst franchise of the past ten years against the team whose franchise had lost more games than anyone had in any sport. It showed there was some parity in the baseball. Underdogs could rise up, something a lot of people did not think could happen. Also, once the season started, you barely heard anything about the Mitchell Report or steroids. 

I could be completely wrong, and everyone forgives A-Rod, gets tired of talking about steroids, and life goes on like nothing ever happened. I don't think I am, though. I think baseball just lost its one immediate chance to forget about Barry Bonds. 

Late Night Ravens Stream of Consciousness, Part Two

Now, as far as the offense goes, even if they don't do a single thing this entire offseason besides resign Jason Brown, the offense will be better next year. Why? Second year in a system instead of the first. Second year quarterback instead of a first. Your primary two runningbacks not named McGahee will be in their second year running the ball instead of the first. The offensive line may actually be healthy, and even if they're not, they can't be more banged up than they were this year. 

That being said, no matter what or how, the Ravens will upgrade at the wide receiver position this offseason. I don't care how they do it. Well, I do, but let's just say I don't for this sake right now. They could do it in free agency, or they may do it with a first round draft pick, or they may do it with a second round draft pick, or they could trade for one. Either way, they will get a wide receiver, and that will make them that much better.

How much better? Enough so that it will compensate for how far the defense will fall. The offense was ranked 18th this past year. If you put a great receiver on this team and Flacco progresses as he should, the offense may even crack the top 10 next year. A top 10 offense + a top 10 defense = success. 

Almost done. To elaborate more on the wide receiver position, I'm glad reports are now that TJ Houshmandzadeh is not going to be a Raven next year, because he's exactly the kind of wide receiver they don't need. He talks a lot, and he's a possession guy. Derrick Mason fills that role wonderfully. I see some mock drafts with the Ravens taking a Percy Harvin, the small speedster from Florida. He's also exactly the kind of guy the Ravens don't need. Mark Clayton fills that role wonderfully. Who do the Ravens need? They need Darrius Heyward-Bey, who can run by most corners in the NFL, or they need Anquan Boldin, who will out-physical all corners in the NFL to get by them, and has the same effect. How are they going to get either one of those guys? Well, Heyward-Bey will be simple to get. Odds are he will be there when the Ravens look to draft at pick 27. There's a slight chance a team like the Dolphins will take him a pick or two beforehand, but odds are against it. Now, there's no chance at all he's still around for them in the second round, so if they want him, they're going to have to pick him with the first round.

I'm not sure this is the most prudent option, though, and I'm looking at Anquan Boldin (pictured, left) when I say this. Is Anquan Boldin worth a first round draft pick in the NFL? I'm not sure. Teams really value their first round picks; it takes an awful lot to give up one. I think the Cardinals, however, in looking to trade Boldin, will look for a first rounder. I think the Ravens will play with this offer, but Ozzie Newsome recognizes value, and I don't think he would do it. That's why (and of course this could change in the two and a half months before the draft) I see the Ravens taking a cornerback in the first round, maybe Alphonso Smith out of Wake Forest. That would leave the Cards seeking a second rounder for Boldin, and they will certainly get their fair share of offers for that. 

Listen to the situation that unfolds itself now. What are the Ravens needs for this offseason? 1) Wide receiver. 2) Cornerback. 4) Anything else. There's that much of a separation. I'm of the opinion that, if the situation plays out like I imagined there, the Ravens would trade their second and third round picks with a team like Detroit who has a very high second round pick, then trade that pick to the Cardinals for Boldin. It makes perfect sense. Why take an unsure thing with a second round pick in the draft when you can get a sure thing with it instead at the position you need? Just a thought there. 

I recognize that this entire post was speculative, and a lot has to go right to make me look like a guy who knows anything at all here. Look at these previous two posts, though, and if you have a problem with anything I've proposed, I would like to hear it. I recognize it's just as likely that Anquan Boldin is a Cardinal next year as everything I've talked about going my way, but it's just a string of thoughts that make sense to me. Hopefully they make sense to the Ravens. 

Posts to look for in the coming days:

1. How A-Rod kicked a recovering baseball world in the face. 

2. The overblown Ray lewis interview. 

3. The ACC vs. the Big East in college basketball.

4. Where Maryland stands after the GT game. 

(Photo Credits: USA today)

Late Night Ravens Stream of Consciousness

So, it's 12:30 at night, and I'm home because of some blood tests I had to have done. All of my friends are at college, so what else do I have to think about besides Ravens football? And when I think of something sports-related, I generally write it down on here. So, here are my thoughts on the Baltimore Ravens' offseason. 

I don't think Ray Lewis is going to be a Baltimore Raven next year, but I also don't believe he will be a New York Jet. In terms of salary cap money, this should tell you all you need to know. The Jets are dead last in the league in terms of cap space. The Cowboys don't fare much better, but I still think he's going to end up there. All they've lacked (or so they think) the past few years has been a leader in the locker room, and Ray Lewis provides that instantly. They will make a few cuts, and then break the bank for Lewis. After they choke their way out of the playoffs the next two years anyway, Tony Romo will rightfully be looking elsewhere for a job. 

Speaking of departures, I don't think Rex Ryan is going to be a very good head coach in the NFL. Rex is all about the buddy system. He loves his guys. This isn't college, though, where a bunch of young guys are going to follow every word you say because you recruited them. He's in a locker room with a bunch of 30 year old men teaching them a completely new way of playing. His way worked in Baltimore, but he also had Ed Reed, the best free safety in the NFL. He had one of the best linebackers in the NFL behind one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL. His scheme worked because he had the personnel to make it work. I think the Jets will be better on offense because he will run Thomas Jones into the ground, but I have my doubts whether the defense get much reward out of his risk-reward system. 

Now, as far as people staying, Terrell Suggs (pictured, right) is number one, and he will become the new leader of the Ravens next year. Harbaugh is very practice-oriented, and Suggs is energetic and doesn't mind practice. Ed Reed is getting up there in years, and the his nerve impingement in his neck isn't helping matters. Rumors have it him and Lewis smiled for the cameras, but neither was a big fan of Harbaugh. Suggs will be the man for the next five seasons or so, and expect Bart Scott to do everything he can to fill in Lewis's shoes at middle linebacker. Also, expect Jim Leonhard to be back, Dawan Landry to go elsewhere and succeed, and the Ravens will get a complementary pick for it somewhere in the draft. Jason Brown will also be back to anchor the offensive line. 

This is why I'm not buying into the now commonplace theory that the Ravens are due for a down year next year. Any defense with Trevor Pryce, Haloti Ngata, Kelly Gregg, Terrell Suggs, Bart Scott, Ed Reed and Fabian Washington playing for it will not be worse than a top 10 defense, and I don't care who the other four guys you line up are. (By the way, the other four will likely be very solid players in Jim Leonhard and Jarret Johnson, a potential star in middle linebacker tavares gooden, and a first round cornerback picked up in this year's draft.) Ngata and Gregg are both top 10 defensive tackles in the NFL, and if you don't believe me, look up Kelly Gregg's stats and compare them with other defensive tackles from 2003-07. You will find that Kelly Gregg has more tackles than any of them. Terrell Suggs is considered by all to be a top 5 outside linebacker. Already said is how dominant Reed is. The talent on defense will still be there. What will be missed is Ray's leadership, but leaders leave teams. New guys step in. John Harbaugh is a natural leader, and I believe in him.

To be continued in an immediate post following this; I don't have too much space left in this post. 

(Photo Credits: allposters.com)

New Blog Added

I have added Doug McKinney's Comcast SportsNet blog to the "Blogs We Like" sidebar on the left. Doug McKinney is the TV producer for Redskins Nation at Comcast SportsNet. Doug has owned and operated the website FeaturePresentationOnline.com since it's inception in early 2006. He is a colorblind 2005 Radford University graduate, currently lives in downtown Bethesda and of course enjoys long walks on the beach.

Here is the direct link: http://www.comcastsportsnet.tv/pages/blog/doug

We hope to have Doug on the show before March Madness to break down the NCAA Tournament and the Terps' chances (if they have any left by then) in late February. Stay tuned here for updates, and in the meantime, check out his website and his blog!

Some More Super Bowl Thoughts

Didn't mean to come out so harsh on both the game and Harrison fronts. My point wasn't to say that this Super Bowl was not one of the greatest of all-time, only to say that it's impossible for me to agree with anyone who says outright that this was the greatest one ever. Also, upon further review, Harrison's touchdown was spectacular. If you want to call that play the best all-time in a Super Bowl because of what it did for the game, and the obvious length of it, I'm okay with that. I still don't think it was as cool as Tyree's last year, though. Now, onto some other musings of mine from last night.

Santonio Holmes absolutely deserved the MVP award. I like that this award isn't like the MVP award of the season, where it almost always ends up in the hands of a quarterback. In the past 10 years, only five Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks (Warner, both Mannings, and two for Brady), while in the same time span, the ratio of quarterbacks to non-quarterbacks winning the season MVP award is 8:3 (Peyton and Steve McNair split it one year).

The only other logical choice for the award was Roethlisberger. Woodley had a huge game, and Harrison obviously got his, but I don't think you can give it to anyone on a defense that was lit up in the second half the way the Steelers' was. I give it to Holmes because of his great ability to get yards after the catch. It happened at least three times that Holmes took a pass from the line of scrimmage and turned it in to real positive yardage. By the way, I didn't believe it at first, but the touchdown to win the game was absolutely brilliant.

With that being said, the unit that played the worst during the game was the Cardinals secondary, which is particularly shocking to me because of how highly I regarded them coming into the game. They were really playing brilliantly in the first few playoff games (remember what they did to Jake Delhomme?). It's hard to criticize any secondary playing against Ben Roethlisberger because of how long you will often be forced to cover your man, as Ben extends plays like few others. There were some blown coverages, though, that were really inexcusable. Everyone was salivating over what a great play Rodgers-Cromartie made in the first quarter to save a touchdown, but if the ball wasn't five yards underthrown, we would be talking about what blown coverage he had. Beside that, there were the three men surrounding the ball for the final touchdown catch, with none of them even getting to Holmes in time for the push out. Two interceptions were dropped, and to pick on Rodgers-Cromartie again, it looked like he was a high school freshman playing against a senior when he was lined up with Holmes one-on-one on the outside. He really had a terrible game.

A Great, Great Super Bowl

... But not the best ever. Not the best that I've seen. Maybe not even top three. Rams-Titans, Patriots-Panthers, Patriots-Giants are all definitely right up there with this one. All were great football games. All came down to the last two minutes. All had their own subplots. 

Ranking Super Bowl games is actually quite worthless and infuriating, so I'm not going to go into a top 10 list of the greatest super bowls ever played, considering the first one I ever watched was the Packers and the Patriots in 1997, and I've only ever seen one played before then (old footage of the 1985 Bears' stomping of the Patriots). I will, however, share my thoughts from this game, probably in a couple of posts. 

There is absolutely no place or reason for the words "Move over, David Tyree" to come out of anyone's mouth when talking about Harrison's touchdown. SI.com's Don Banks was the first to drop what has already become my most hated phrase of all time in his column right after the game. David Tyree's catch (pictured, below) was the single greatest display of athletic ability I have ever seen. To make that play, in that situation, while being hammered by one of the league's strongest hitters is still mind-boggling to me. What makes the David Tyree play so great, though, besides Eli's ridiculous effort to get out of the pocket himself, was the fact that before the catch, Tyree had four catches for 35 yards ... DURING THE ENTIRE REGULAR SEASON. 

Now, I'm not here to slam Harrison, because if you pull off the longest play in Super Bowl history, you're something special. The image of him jumping that route, breaking tackles, and tip-toeing down the sideline for the score will forever be in football, and it truly was remarkable. Let's remind ourselves, though, that Harrison was the defensive player of the year this year. It doesn't take anything away from the play, but it made the idea of it happening plausible at the very least. 

Oh, and by the way, speaking of Harrison, in the post-game celebrations, let us not forget about the most despicable play of the game. Everyone completely forgot about it, because the very next play we saw Larry Fitzgerald scampering 50+ yards down the middle of the field for the go-ahead touchdown for Arizona. The reason the Cardinals were that far, though, was the 15 yard personal foul on Harrison. What for? Only punching a guy who tried to block him repeatedly in the back, and then, even though, the play was completely away from him, absolutely leveling the guy as he tried to stand up. Madden may have exaggerated when he said he should have been thrown out, but if he had, I don't think anyone would have argued too much. 

On a happier note for Pittsburgh fans, Ben Roethlisberger is truly a one-of-a-kind quarterback. He doesn't have the arm strength of Brady or the scary accuracy of Manning, but it is time that all doubters - including myself - concede the fact that Big Ben (pictured above, hugging MVP Santonio Holmes) has established himself in their class as the third best quarterback of our generation (I consider Brett Favre to be of the Aikman-Young generation. He kind of fits in between somewhere). I still put him third because of his obvious discrepancy in terms of numbers, and I don't think even the most die-hard of all Steelers fans will argue that point. He is above other peers, though, because of his uncanny ability to turn it on when the game is late. I, along with 60% of America, was screaming at the top of my lungs

 about how three Cardinals could be standing right next to Holmes, but not one can make a play on the ball, but the fact remains the same that Big Ben found Holmes there and the ball was delivered perfectly. Ben was impressive in the first and fourth quarters. In the second and third, he looked only mediocre, as he is prone to do during games, lulling you into a false sense about the kind of quarterback he really is. I've seen him do it twice against the Ravens already this season, though, and now on the biggest stage of all - the Super Bowl. He is as clutch as they come. 

(Photo Credits: allposters.com for Tyree; Getty Images for Roethlisberger)