Monday, December 15, 2008

Maryland Basketball: Not Last Year's Team

When I first looked at the Maryland men's basketball 2008-09 schedule, what really stood out to be was one particular seven game stretch. It lasted exactly one month, from December 7-January 7. It had the potential to make or break the Terps' season. 

And no, they didn't play UNC, Duke, or Wake during that stretch at all.

The teams that would line up to face the Terps would be, in order: George Washington, Delaware State, American, Bryant, Elon, Charlotte and Morgan State. 

Why that stretch? Because it was during that stretch last year that the team threw away its season.

Consider that Maryland was a bubble team last year. They were a bubble team despite not winning a single meaningful non-conference game (their three best opponents were UCLA, Missouri and Illinois. They lost to UCLA and Missouri on a neutral court, and then ended up beating Illinois, who ended up being terrible last year anyway.) They were a bubble team despite losing three games in their non-conference schedule that they had no business losing (to VCU, American and Ohio). All that, and if they held on to beat Clemson, they probably would have made the tournament anyway. 

Logic told me at the beginning of the season that the Terps would win at least one of their four games against UNC and Duke (They have at least one victory over those teams in every season this decade except for the 2005-06 team.) That would be the one marquee win of the year that every bubble team needs to have. 

So I stared at that stretch and just thought to myself, "This could not be any worse." You accomplish absolutely nothing by beating American, for instance. You throw your season away by losing to American, though. That's what the team did last year.

This year? No more. 

The team didn't look that set earlier in their overtime win against Vermont, but Vermont played the game of their life that game. Vermont's also not a bad team at all, and Marqus Blakely is a stellar power forward (averaging 17.1 ppg and 9.3 rpg this year, playing the position for which the Terps are having the most problems matching up). 

That was then. This team learned a lot about itself since then, including how they are supposed to play teams they should beat. I don't want to get ahead of myself, because we are only two games in during this seven game stretch. However, the blowout wins against GW and Delaware State were both very convincing. The Terps came out firing and aggressive both times. 

GW and Delaware State are two of the worst "bad teams" the Terps will play this year. If they come out playing against the next five like they did against the first two, however, they will be fine.

The huge wins against Michigan State and Michigan (them beating Duke will turn out to be huge) probably give the Terps a little lee-way for one bad loss. Hopefully, they won't even need it. 

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