... That Didn't Last Long

DeShawn Painter decided to be a preposterous tease for Maryland fans everywhere by announcing Tuesday that Maryland was in his final two, and then announcing today that he made up his mind ... and NC State it was. So, sorry if I got you all excited on Tuesday thinking that Maryland was going to land a legitimate recruit for 2009, because I really thought they would. Alas, though. What are you gonna do?

Gary's Overcompensating ... And I Love It

So I know the NHL and NBA are in the middle of great playoff series right now, but I want to do a little timeout to get you updated in the world of Terrapin basketball.

According to ESPN, DeShawn Painter, a top 100 player and top 20 power forward in the nation, has narrowed his college selection down to Maryland and NC State. Painter would be the prize recruit of this year's class and would almost certainly start from the get-go. No information I could provide about him would be unique, so go here for the scoop. 

Now I'm not going to do a long post and get all excited, because there's just as good of a chance that he'll be playing for NC State next year as Maryland. But I can't lie and say I'm not thrilled that Maryland is in the running for this. What it really shows is that Gary got a wake-up call last year. Between all the media coverage and what once looked to be nothing short of a disastrous season, Gary for the first time felt a little uneasy under the collar. How has he responded? By taking a team that had no business playing in the ACC and making them into an NCAA tournament team. By not only landing Jordan Williams and James Padgett (who seem to get better ratings by the day), but by already landing one solid and one great recruit for 2010. And now, he led the charge out of nowhere for Maryland to land Painter. It really shows Gary's still got it.

I'll keep you up-to-date as far as any new developments go. He's expected to make his decision by the 20th, so it won't be too long for now that we'll know for sure. If Maryland is in fact the choice, expect a lengthier post with how he'll fit in to the system here. 

(Photo Credit: ncstate.rivals.com)

Terps Laying Solid Foundation for Future

Let's be honest with ourselves for a second. As much as I've tried to stay optimistic on the matter, Maryland is not going to land Lance Stephenson. If Stephenson wanted to come to Maryland, he would be here already. So, it's time to chalk that one up to a good attempt and move on. 

Move on Maryland certainly has, as they have already landed a recruit for 2010 who is already much more highly rated than either of the members of their 2009 class. His name is Terrence Ross (pictured, left), and, according to ESPN, he's the number 41 player in the class of '10. At 6'6 and 180 pounds, he's ideally a shooting guard, but could certainly play small forward, especially in Gary's lineup. Most importantly, he's a pure shooter, one of the best in the nation as a high schooler. Originally from Oregon, he transferred to nearby Montrose Christian for academics. Dubbed as the best 2-guard prospect in the west before he came east, Ross was also actively pursued by Washington, Arizona State, Cal and Oregon State.

Maryland has also received a commitment from the number 30 point guard in the country for 2010 in Terrell Stoglin. Stoglin is still in "project" status, and will have to work on his jump shot, because at 6'0, he's not going to find it easy to get to the rim in the ACC. Still, though, he averaged 27.0 ppg and 7.5 apg as a junior this season and was recruited by PAC 10 powerhouses USC and UCLA.

The only questions that remain for the upcoming season lay with Greivis Vasquez, who still doesn't know whether he's coming back to school for his senior season, and 6'9 power forward DeShawn Painter, who was granted a release from his letter of intent to Florida last week, and has scheduled a visit to Maryland. Any update on either of those will instantly be put here. 

(Photo Credit: montrosebasketball.com)

ESPN: Maryland Number Two for Stephenson, One for Vinson

ESPN just launched their spring recruiting preview, in which they discussed the top remaining players in the country who have yet to sign to a school. Oft-talked about recruit Lance Stephenson checked in at the number 12 spot. Because ESPN, like many others, thinks that number three recruit Xavier Henry will commit to Kansas, they have the Jayhawks out of the running for Stephenson. However, they also have St. John's one-upping the Terrapins on the trail. If they had to pick a school today that Stephenson would end up, they say it would be the Red Storm. The Terps check in at the number two spot, though, so all hope should not be lost.

In another surprise, Maryland is said to be the most likely home for top 50 recruit Terrell Vinson next year. A 6'7 small forward who plays bigger than his size, Vinson hails from St. Frances Academy in Baltimore, the same high school that produced current Terp Sean Mosley. Described as an Antoine Walker-like player, Vinson would be the third freshman that would compete for playing time as one of the bigs for the Terps.

Currently, with neither Williams nor Padgett being in the top 100 of prospects, Maryland's recruiting class is solid, but nothing to write home about. If the Terps were to land either Stephenson or Vinson, it would immediately put it as one of their best in recent memory. 

Events at Kentucky Could Lead to Stephenson at Maryland

Lance Stephenson has still not given any indication when he will announce what college he will attend next year. Before a solid showing at the McDonald's All-American game (12 points, six assists, three steals), the only thing Stephenson divulged to reporters were that his top three choices were still Kansas, Maryland and St. John's. 

He may be holding off because of reasons outside of his control. 

Coach John Calipari (pictured, left) leaving Memphis to go to Kentucky will shake up the entire recruiting world, and Stephenson is in the middle of that picture. 

Recruits typically choose a school in equal parts because of their relationship with the coaching staff and because of the school itself. So, when a coach goes, it is logical that the recruits for that school, especially if they were torn in their decision-making process to begin with, to attend their second choice school.

Enter Xavier Henry, widely considered to be the single best prospect coming out of high school this year. Henry is a 6'5 shooting guard, who committed to Memphis after limiting his choices down to Memphis and Kansas. Odds are Henry will no longer attend Memphis because of Calipari's absence. One of two choices are then logical for Henry: attend Kansas, his second choice school, or follow his desired coach to Kentucky. 

However, Henry may then look at Kentucky's roster and see that Jodie Meeks will likely return for his senior season. Jodie Meeks (pictured, right) is a 6'4 shooting guard who averaged 23.7 ppg last year. No matter how good Henry is, he's not starting over Meeks. Henry also has his reputation to consider: he's a "one and done" player (a player who only intends to play college ball for one year before leaving for the NBA), and he doesn't want to play second fiddle to anyone.

So, it is not unreasonable at all to say Henry ends up at Kansas. Well, if Kansas is bringing in one freshman 6'5 shooting guard in Henry, why bring in another one in Stephenson? This is not to mention Kansas's scholarship situation, and the fact they would have to force some transfers to make room for Stephenson on their roster in the first place. 

So, what then for Stephenson? It really leaves Maryland and St. John's, and Maryland is clearly in the lead there. The only other option for Stephenson is Kentucky, even though he neither looked at Kentucky nor Memphis previously. Calipari has that way, however, and will likely try to convince Stephenson to attend, especially if he loses Henry.

It's a domino effect from all over, but the bottom line to take from it all is that Maryland has a better shot of landing Stephenson than they did a week ago. Maybe even a good shot. 

(Photo Credits: AP)

Lance Stephenson to Delay Announcement

Tonight is the McDonald's All-American game, which shows off the best high school talent in the country. One player that will be participating is 6'5 shooting guard Lance Stephenson (read about him here) of Lincoln High School in Brooklyn, NY. Tonight is also the night when Stephenson was supposed to announce which college he will attend next year. He has decided to postpone that, however. Although neither Memphis nor Kentucky seemed to be a likely suitor, ESPN reports that Calipari's uncertain future with the Tigers could play a role. 

Right now, Stephenson has made it known that there are still three schools in the running - national powerhouse Kansas, local St. John's out of the Big East, and the somewhere in between University of Maryland. 

In early February, especially after his visit to campus to watch the Terps take down the Miami Hurricanes at home, Maryland was considered by many to be the favorite to land Stephenson. He was supposed to be the recruit that would "save Gary Williams' job," back when it seemed that Gary Williams' job needed saving. Players have openly talked about him; Greivis Vasquez got press (surprise) when he announced that if Stephenson came to Maryland, then Vasquez would be back for his senior season.

Since then, though, it appears that Kansas has overtaken Maryland as Stephenson's college of choice. As warm of a reception as Stephenson got at Maryland, he got a better one at Kansas. Stephenson has also said that the primary factor in his choice of school was his desire to win a national championship. Undoubtedly, Kansas is closer to that goal then Maryland at this point. St. John's is basically out of the running.

Right now, between message boards all over and small hints from Stephenson himself, I would put the percentages at: Kansas, 75%; Maryland, 20%; St. Johns, 5%. So no, I don't think that when Stephenson announces his choice, Maryland fans will be celebrating. I do stil think there's a shot, though. His mother has gone public and said that her choice for her son was Maryland. He fits into Gary Williams' style of play perfectly. He would be "that guy" at Maryland, whereas he would be just another great player at Kansas. He would be closer to home at Maryland. His high school teammate, James Padgett, has already committed to Maryland and wants Stephenson to join him. 

If Stephenson does become a Terp for next season, it will immediately make Maryland a top 25 team. A potential starting lineup of Greivis Vasquez, Lance Stephenson, Sean Mosley, Landon Milbourne, and Jordan Williams would be fast, strong, and very solid defensively. Stephenson and Vasquez could both average around 20 ppg for the season. It would be Maryland's highest rated recruit of the past ten years, with the possible exception of bust Mike Jones.

That being said, if Kansas is the choice, Maryland fans should not despair. It was a good sign that Maryland even got this far in the recruiting process, and shows that Gary still has pull when he really feels like it. This is not to mention Stephenson's alleged attitude problems, and the fact he is certainly a "one and done" player, and Williams likes recruiting four year players. This would also open up the team to recruit Baltimore product Terrell Vinson, a 6'7 foward who is a St. Frances product, the same high school Sean Mosley attended. Vinson still apparently has around 10 suitors, and Maryland is one of them. Without Stephenson, they will have the roster spot. 

I'll be following it, and you guys will know first thing where Stephenson ends up. If it happens, it will be great for the school. Don't get your hopes up too high, though. 

(Photo Credit: lance-stephenson.com ... yes, he has his own website)

Terp Basketball Offseason 1: The Returning Players

I was going to do a 2009-10 season outlook, but I realized there are way too many question marks still out there about the personnel that will be playing next year. So, I decided to do a two-part post about the possible personnel for next season. The first post will be a discussion on those players definitely returning to contribute to the team next year, and the second post will be about the question marks.

DEFINITE PLAYERS ON THE ROSTER NEXT SEASON

1. Landon Milbourne (SR): Milbourne followed a terrible freshman campaign (1.0 ppg, 0.8 rpg) with a so-so sophomore season (8.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg), and just followed that with a good junior season (11.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg). Terp fans can only hope he continues to progress and have a great senior year. Although his level of play diminished in ACC season because he was continually overmatched being a 6'7 power forward, Landon showed great toughness and the rare ability to consistently make a mid-range jumper.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: Milbourne is a definite starter next season. It could be at either forward position, but he will be in the starting lineup from the first to the last game, barring injury.

2. Sean Mosley (SO): Mosley was a fan favorite last season because of his incredible grittiness and determination. In only one season, he established himself as the Terps' best defender. Throughout the course of the season, he was matched up man-to-man with team's leading scorers, whether they were a guard or forward. He played much larger than his size (6'4), and often forced jump balls. Offensively, Mosley needs plenty of work. He showed flashes of terrific spin moves and ability to get into the lane, but rarely finished down low. His jump shot always looks good coming out of his hand, but his 37% FG% and 24% FG% (3-PT) need to improve. It would also be good to see his FT% (70.7%) jump up about five percentage points.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: Mosley started 16 of 35 games this year, including the last 15 games of the season. His role largely depends upon other personnel, but Mosley will probably (75%) start at either the shooting guard or third guard position next season.

3. Eric Hayes (SR): Hayes is almost as big of a "love him or hate him" type player as Greivis Vasquez was for the team this year, largely because it seemed that if you loved GV, you hated Hayes, and if you hated GV, you loved Hayes. Either way, nobody can argue with the seeming revitalization of Hayes, starting in the ACC tournament. After being one of the key factors in the loss to UVA to end the season (he missed his first six three-point attempts), Hayes singlehandedly led the team to victory against Wake Forest, and kept the team fighting against Duke. To Hayes's credit, after losing his starting job to Sean Mosley following the BC loss, Hayes never complained, and embraced his role as sixth man for the Terps. As the team's second best returning three point shooter and one of three seniors, Hayes will have a big role for the team next year.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: This is going to be one of the more interesting cases next year. Hayes will likely start if Vasquez leaves, but likely will come off the bench if Vasquez does indeed leave, so I'll call it 50%. Either way, he will get his minutes.

4. Adrian Bowie (JR): Bowie was arguably the most inconsistent player on an inconsistent team this season. He saw his points and assists greatly improve from his freshman to sophomore season (3.7ppg and 0.9 apg to 9.0 ppg and 3.0 apg) but also saw his FG% decrease from 58% to 45%. Bowie will almost always be the fastest player on the court when he plays, but teams (Memphis especially) were able to game-plan for him by sagging off him in the half-court and forcing him to take jump shots, which he could not consistently convert. His size often was a liability on defense, as he had to fight extra hard to get through screens on the perimeter, but his speed in the transition game was invaluable.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: Bowie started 28 of 35 games as a sophomore, but will likely be squeezed out of a starting spot as a junior because of the team's ability to field a serviceable front-court. Since the Terps will most likely play almost exclusively man-to-man defense next year, Bowie's minutes will largely depend on the opposing team's speed.

5. Cliff Tucker (JR): Tucker returns as the team's best three point shooter, and when he gets in, he is a key part of the team's offense. He didn't see much time during the year, though - a mere 12.2 mpg - because of his lackluster defense and apparent poor practice habits. Coach Williams is known to give minutes to those who do both of those things well, and has hinted that Tucker has disappointed him in both regards. Because of what he gives the team offensively, though, there will be minutes for Tucker if he can step up on the defensive end. As they say, he just needs to pretend he's playing against UNC every game (whom he averaged 20 points against).

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: There is likely going to be minutes for either Bowie or Tucker next year, but not both. Because of that, depending on the game, it is very likely that Bowie and Tucker's minutes will come inversely proportional to one another. I have a hard time imagining many scenarios where both are on the court at the same time next year.

6. Dino Gregory (JR): Gregory was bested only by Dave Neal as the team's biggest surprise this season. At 6'7 with not much weight on him, Gregory was undersized every time he stepped on the court, especially because he was forced to play center for a lot of his minutes. He made up for it defensively, though, because of his supreme leaping ability. He also probably took more charges than anyone else on the team. Offensively, he was not able to get much more than about one put-back on an offensive rebound per game, but he showed flashes of an ability shoot a short jumper. He should get with Keith Booth and focus on acquiring some low post moves this summer.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: Dino's going to play next year, and he may play a lot. Ideally, he and the two freshman will play in a three-man rotation at the two big positions, but Gary might be reluctant to constantly fill two positions on the court with three players who have a combined one year playing experience (Gregory only got in 16 games as a freshman). He probably won't start, but he will be one of the first two "bigs" off the bench.

7. Jordan Williams (FR): I have never seen Williams play, so all I can tell you is what I have seen on this page. Instantly, what has to jump out at you is his size: at 6'10, 240, Williams is going to be a big body for the Terps down low. Other than that, we will have to wait and see.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: I see Williams starting next year from day one. Don't get fooled into believing that what Dave Neal did this year (be a serviceable starting center in the ACC at 6'7) can be relied upon to be replicated. Williams is going to be the only player on the Terps with real size, and will be thrown into the fire early and often.

8. James Padgett (FR): Same deal with Williams. I've never seen him in person, so you can know what I know by reading this. At 6'8 with a little weight on him, he has good build for apower forward. I like the comments about him, especially about his toughness. This is the guy that scored 50 in a game this year. I don't care if that means he played against bad competition; I want a guy that can score 50 in a game on my team.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: Padgett has about a 25% chance of starting. He will start if either of the following happens: he outplays Williams in practice, or the Terps want to play a traditional lineup, but don't sign Terrell Vinson. If he doesn't get the starting nod, he will be a contributor for the team off the bench.

I'll be posting soon (likely tomorrow) about the players whose roles on the team are uncertain at this point.

(Photo Credits: umterps.com)

March truly is, well, Madness

I have no problems telling you that I am by no means a hardcore basketball fan. I think the NBA is by far the most boring professional sport to watch and even have a hard time watching a regular college basketball game.

Even if it's Celtics vs. Lakers, I can fall asleep. The constant stoppages, traveling, fouls for getting run over, one-man teams, everything about it bores me and leaves me disinterested. Most college games are more of the same, though top matches can be great for a couple reasons: the emotion, the run-and-gun play that can erupt, the student section, the role players who come up huge, everything. I can really enjoy a good college basketball game.

Luckily for me, the NCAA Tournament combines the best aspects of college basketball (excitement, clutch players, buzzer-beaters, overtimes, emotion, upsets, Cinderella stories) into a couple weeks of action. The first day of play saw a scare for some top teams, such as the Terps' second round oppenent Memphis, but was relatively uneventful in terms of upsets (One could call Maryland's win an upset, but certainly not one on the level of some other games).

The second day was, however, fantastic. Number-one seeded Pittsburgh barely got by East Tennessee State, Cleveland State upset fourth-seeded Wake Forest, Wisconsin beat Florida State in overtime, and Siena's Ronald Moore took Ohio State to double-overtime and then won it himself with 4 seconds remaining.

The Siena game in particular was great. Back-and-forth the whole game, momentum shifts, huge shots, it had everything. And, oh yea, double overtime. Overtime in any sport is exciting. In the NCAA Tournament, it is madness. Every shot is huge and a turnover or foul can be extremely costly. During the Siena-Ohio State game, every fan was standing and I'm sure the players' hearts were pounding about a thousand beats per minute. I can't even tell you what state Siena is, but I was rooting for them to pull it out, and not just because I picked them in my bracket (I always love when a non-BCS school upsets a team like Ohio State, just like most of America does).

Cleveland State's upset of Wake Forest - really, it was a shellacking - was awesome in every sense of the word. A thirteen seed who would not have gotten in if it didn't upset Butler in its conference tournament put a beating on a powerhouse ACC team that at one point was the #1 ranked team in the nation. The game was never even close. The Vikings wanted the game more and, behind their point guard Cedric Jackson, annihilated the Demon Deacons. Usually, I want the underdog to win on a buzzer-beater or something, but yesterday's domination was even better. Wake Forest was shell-shocked. I loved it.

Hopefully we continue to see the teams that are too small and less talented, with no five-star recruits and no all-Americans, play on and make this year's tournament one to remember. Because the more madness that there is, the more I enjoy it.

(Photo credit: Newsday)

Maryland vs. Memphis: You Know the Drill

I was thinking about doing a long, elaborate post on how it is not likely, but that Maryland can beat Memphis in round two. 

But ... you knew that. And you know exactly as I do how it's going to happen. Or how it won't happen. 

I'm here to tell you right now that Maryland's second half against California should be considered nothing less than what it was, and that is a thing of beauty. They were running and gunning, and executing their press to perfection. The Greivis Vasquez (pictured, left) show was in full effect, and Dave Neal was proving all the doubters - once again - that they're all completely wrong. 

And that's how Maryland can beat Memphis tomorrow. 

When Maryland does what it can do, there is not a single team in America that will consistently be able to beat them. Here's a short list of what that is:

1. Get to the line, and when there, make the free throw (the 67% against Cal has to improve). 

2. Greivis Vasquez is a star, and he needs to put up 25+, 6+, and 6+. He can. Wheeling and dealing into the lane, he opens up shots for his teammates as well as anyone in the country. When his three point shot is falling, he is impossible to guard. 

3. Landon Milbourne can't force his game. Landon needs to be happy taking his shot when he gets a good look, which has been rare of late. Because of this, he has had to overcompensate and take contested shots that often end up blocked. When it's there, take the shot. When it's not, get it out of there.

4. Adrian Bowie and Sean Mosley just need to make their lay-ups. That's all they need to do, because their defense is spectacular. 

5. Dave Neal needs to hit the pick-and-pop. It's his greatest asset to the team, and if he can't step outside and drill the open J, Dino Gregory should be in. 

6. Eric Hayes needs to play with confidence. I'm not saying anything about making his shots, because I think there's a direct correlation. Hayes has shown over the past week that he's a different, smarter, more confident player coming off the bench. He's a quiet leader on this team. 

... That's it. Yeah, I just listed six things, but which one of those is unrealistic? None. I'm telling you, because of the way Maryland rebounds as a unit, particularly in their zone, they can hold their own on the backboard. The players just need to mesh together.

So I ended up doing the long post I promised not to. Bottom line: if the players play like they can play, I do not think for one second that Memphis will trounce Maryland. If Hayes plays scared, Vasquez plays out-of-control, and Milbourne plays frustrated, though, it will be a long day. Time will tell. Go Terps. 

(Photo Credit: AP)

The Good and the Bad about the NCAA Tournament (thus far)

What a great start to the NCAA tournament. If you're at all like me, you can barely turn away from the TV. If you're like me, as well, you've already given up rooting for your bracket because 1) your bracket is terrible, and 2) rooting for the upsets is way too much fun. But hey, I don't want to spoil the rest of the post. 

THE GOOD

- ETSU versus Pitt, one of my favorite games that I watched. If you didn't see it, don't be deceived at all by the final, Pitt winning by 10. This one was close for 38 minutes. A few times in the second half, it looked like Pitt was finally going to pull away, but Eastern Tennessee State showed as much heart as anyone in this tournament because they kept coming back. They were shooting with confidence, and crashing the offensive glass with a crazy vigor. Number one seeds are now 100 for 100 in the first round of the NCAAs, but I definitely thought ETSU could pull this one off. 

- Day 2, which made up for a sort-of boring day one. Western Kentucky-Illinois was a great game, but other than that, Thursday lacked the typical drama we come to expect from March Madness. Friday, on the other hand, was just ridiculous. Oklahoma St.-Tennessee, Ohio St.-Siena, Marquette-Utah St., Pitt-ETSU and FSU-Wisconsin were great nail-biters. 

- The fact that anything above a 4-13 is basically a crap shoot. It seems that this has become the trend, and I like it. Every year, there seems to be one upset in the 16 games played by seeds 1-4. A two-seed going down happens about once every six or seven years, but it seems every year now either a three or a four is going to go down. That's definitely the line, though, because the other 16 games are anyone's guess. Three five seeds fell, and Purdue wasn't comfortable with their win. Only one six seed won, but both UCLA and Marquette were taken down to the wire by VCU and Utah St., respectively. Cal, BC, and Clemson all tanked as seventh seeds. BYU and Ohio State both lost as 8 seeds, and Oklahoma State was forced to sweat. It makes filling out your bracket impossible. 

THE BAD

- The ACC, which absolutely embarrassed itself on Friday. It had a strong show Thursday, with Maryland pulling the upset over Cal, and UNC and Duke taking care of their opponents. The only team to fail was Clemson, but hey, they always fail. Then Friday happened. Wake looked like the 13 seed playing when they were positively clobbered by Cleveland State. Tyrese Rice apparently forgot he was good, and USC blew the game open against BC. FSU somehow figured out a way to blow a 12 point lead against a Wisconsin team who actually makes you cringe as you watch their offense. Oh, by the way, all four ACC teams that lost were higher seeds than their opponents, and there were only ten higher seeds to lose in the first round. 

- TV timeouts, which are the most maddening things ever created. Games lose all momentum because of them. There's one every four minutes, plus coaches get a full timeout and three 30-second timeouts per half. Add in the fact that CBS sees one 30-second timeout equal to one 30-second commercial, and games take entirely too long. 

- The fact that every single game is on CBS. Yeah, yeah, I know they're online. And I know nothing will be done about this because obviously CBS was the highest bidder. But come on. With so many close games all at the same time, it's impossible not to miss a crazy ending because you're watching another one. Not only that, but sometimes CBS makes some questionable decisions as to when to switch from game-to-game. As Maryland and Cal were battling back and forth during the second half on Thursday, CBS thought it was necessary to show the end of the Northern Iowa-Purdue game. Fine, fine, even as the most die hard of all Terp fans, I can accept that. However, CBS needs to learn that when a team is up by four points with two seconds remaining in the game, THE GAME IS OVER. It doesn't do anything for my blood pressure either to see that apparently the network thinks my time is better spent watching players shake hands than players on other teams battle it out on the floor. Just saying. 

That was obviously a bit of a stretch, but hey, I like balance in my posts. Here's hoping the endof the weekend is as good as the start of it. 

Maryland vs. Cal

Sorry this is late, loyal readers. I've been back and forth on this whole California game. When the draw came out, at first, I couldn't have been happier. A small team from the Pac-10? Please. Show me the Memphis game film right now. 

Then I did bracket research, and my faith kinda sunk. I didn't know Cal was that good at shooting the three. Like, number one in the nation, 43.4% good. As in, our best three point shooter on our team is Cliff Tucker, who is 40%. And they have a team that averages 3.4% better than that. 

And our three point defense is that bad? Like, 184th in the nation? Trailing, in order, Manhattan, Vermont, Rider and UCF. Uh oh. 

Then, I took comfort, because I realized the obvious solution, and if I realized it, Gary Williams realized in 1/10 of the time that I did and had perfected it by the time it even hit my mind. Maryland's three point defense numbers are completely a result of the team's strategy, not talent. It should not be forgotten why Adrian Bowie (pictured, left) is on this team. I'll give you a hint: it's not for his offense. He's just as bad as Mosley at this whole making-lay ups business, and his shooting numbers (both free throw and three point) are abysmal. But he still starts because he's tough, he's fast, and he's a tenacious defender. Sean Mosley has even less offense, but starts for an NCAA tournament team because he positively refuses to back down to anybody on defense. And don't you forget the jobs defensively that Greivis Vasquez did  last season to Tyrese Rice of Boston College and A.D. Vassallo of Virginia Tech. Landon Milbourne can't do anything against a good power forward and Dave Neal does little more than hold his ground (when he's not foolishly going over the back for a steal), but the team has good defensive guards. 

And that's why the Terps are going to beat California. Offensively, it's going to be simple. Run, run, run, and when you can't run, Vasquez will put the ball on his shoulder and go prancing into the lane and throw up shots you hate him for until they go in. This isn't Wake Forest, Cal doesn't have the athletic shot blockers to keep him out. If they go zone and collapse on him, the only player that may be on the court for the Terps that isn't afraid to step out and knock down the triple is Dino Gregory (who, if you've noticed, actually has developed a decent mid-range game). 

On defense, this team has been the most successful when it has gone to a 3-2 zone, particularly with Mosley (pictured, right) at the top of it. That's because big men in the ACC like Tyler Hansbrough, Kyle Singler, KC Rivers, Gani Lawal, and Al-Farouq Aminu would absolutely eat up our low post players one-on-one. Cal doesn't have any of those guys. Their top scorer? 5'10 Jerome Randle, known for his speed. Stick Bowie on him and let them duke it out all game. Next? 6'5 Christopher Patrick. Christopher Patrick, meet Sean Mosley. Next? 6'6 forward Theo Robertson. 6'6 and likes playing outside? Meet the General, Greivis Vasquez. Stick the team's three best defenders on their three leading scorers and trust that neither Jamal Boykin nor Jordan Wilkes, averaging a combined 14.4 points per game, won't beat you inside.

Cal's best basketball is far behind them, and their three point shooting has come back to earth as well. Maryland knows they can play with any team in the country, and are hot at the right time. There's no reason the Terps shouldn't win this one, but they'll make it interesting for us anyway. 

The prediction? Maryland 76, Cal 71. 

(Photo Credits: umterps.com)

Bubble? What Bubble?

Editor's Note: I originally wrote that Maryland played California in Anaheim. They actually play in Missouri. 

The brackets are out, and, I won't lie, when CBS announced that Arizona had made it in the field as a number 12 seed, my heart sank a little bit. "They took our spot." Lo and behold, though, only a few minutes later Maryland was announced as a number 10 seed in the West. It's a better seed than any Maryland fan could have ever hoped for. Sure, you can nitpick, and there's room to. Maryland's playing their first round game against California, and then if they win that they get the opportunity to play the best defensive team in the country, Memphis. To look at it like that, though, is wrong. One game at a time. California is a true 7 seed, and will be a good test. 

I'm going to be posting about March Madness this entire week, so I will keep this initial post short.  Gary Williams is, without a doubt, one of the best pure coaches in college basketball. In no way am I retracting any of the anger I felt earlier this year about the team and their lack of talent, because that is still all on him. What is amazing, though, is that Gary took a team that last year went to the NIT and turned them into a tournament team. He did that while losing two senior big men, including one who was third team All-ACC, and replacing them essentially with a freshman who played tough D but couldn't be counted on to make a layup. He somehow turned Dave Neal, the laughingstock of every announcer who ever covered the Terps, into a functional center in the Atlantic Coast Conference. He calmed down the most hyperactive player in the history of college basketball and somehow got him to be one of the leaders in the conference in assist to turnover ratio. This is all not to mention the fact the team really only went eight men deep the entire year, and all the drama surrounding him and his team midseason. 

He needs to recruit better, so this offseason I give myself permission to say whatever I like. In season, though, I'll keep my mouth shut. 

It Should Be Enough

Maryland lost to Duke today, but only by six. It looked like it could go either way at halftime, and then things got bad. With about seven minutes left, Maryland was down by 12. Then, thanks to some last-minute heroics by Eric Hayes, the deficit decreased by six instead of gaining more. Only playing an eight-man rotation really hurt the Terps, as the Blue Devils ran by them in the second half on their way to controlling the game. It was really apparent with the lack of big men; Dave Neal looked gassed for the majority of the game, and Landon Milbourne didn't produce the way he normally does against Duke. 

Either way, it looks like the Terps will be dancing this coming week, most likely as an 11th seed. In three different projections I've seen, the Terps have drawn Marquette, Xavier and Arizona State. The Terps could take any of those teams. That's for tomorrow now. For now, to recap today:

The Good

- Memphis eased through the Conference-USA tournament, crushing Tulsa 64-39. Book Memphis for a number 1 seed; book Tulsa for the NIT. 

- Tennessee beat Auburn. If Auburn had beaten Tennessee and gotten that on their resume, they would have been hard to ignore even if they lost in their next game. This way, Tennessee can still win the SEC championship game and save an at-large bid, as well. 

- Missouri beat Baylor. Baylor was making everyone sweat, but for once, a Big 12 team took care of business and put the Bears (who were 5-11 in conference in the regular season) down. 

- Temple, who was definitely in bubble consideration, is no longer a factor since they beat Duquesne in the A-10 championship game. It was unfortunate Temple got there in the first place, but good that they held off Duquesne and limited the Atlantic 10 to only three bids. 

- Utah squeaked by San Diego State to win the Mountain West title. San Diego State is squarely on the bubble along with Maryland, so it would have been devastating for them to get the automatic qualifier bid. 

The Bad

- LSU proved just how terrible the SEC is by losing to Mississippi State. How MS ST can even be considered by some to be a bubble team now is beyond me; LSU was literally the first ranked team they had faced the entire season. In any case, MS ST is now in the SEC championship game. If they were to win, it would steal an at-large bid from somebody. 

- USC delivered a huge blow to the Terps' at-large hopes by beating Arizona State in the Pac-10 title game. The Terps are definitely one of those teams in "the last four in/out" right now, so, for example, if they were the second to last team in after losing to Duke, they became the last team in after USC got in. 

The Two Things Left That Could Go Wrong

- Utah State could lose to Nevada tonight. That would put Utah State into the at-large field, and they would definitely be on the bubble. I'm not sure whether they would or would not get a bid, but it would be an extra headache. In any case, it's definitely not as bad as if ...

- Mississippi State beats Tennessee tomorrow. If the Terps don't get in the tournament, that could very well be the game that keeps them out. Tennessee will be in, probably as a seventh seed or so, and there's no chance that Mississippi State's resume stacks up favorably compared to the Terps' if the Bulldogs lose tomorrow. 

So, that's about it for Championship Weekend. I'll be back tomorrow after the selection committee is done breaking hearts tomorrow. 

Day 3: Bring Out Your Missouri Jersey

... and Utah. And Memphis. And LSU. And you could probably buy out a sporting goods store with the amount of teams that, as a bubble fan, you need to win today. A look at all the important games today and why they're important (team to root for in bold):

- 11:35: Tulsa/Memphis: This is the Conference-USA final game. If Memphis wins, in all likelihood they will become either a number one or two seed. If they lose, they're in the tournament no matter what. If Tulsa loses, they will be playing in the NIT. 

- 1:00: Mississippi State/LSU: Mississippi State served their purpose by eliminating fellow bubble team South Carolina yesterday. Now, we don't want them pulling a Georgia and winning the SEC championship and stealing a bid. LSU will be in no matter what, so root for them to be one step closer to securing that automatic bid. 

- 3:15: Tennessee/Auburn: This is just about the exact same scenario as the one above, but replace "South Carolina" with "Florida," "LSU" with "Tennessee," and "Mississippi State" with "Auburn."

- 4:00: Maryland/Duke: The Terps are about 75% in as of this point. If they win, they up that to 100%. Of course, for all other bubble fans, this is highlighted as one of the biggest games of the day so they can root against the Terps.

... Then, there's the 6:00 trifecta. Other than the Memphis game, these are the three most important games of the day for Terp fans, and they may be even more important than the Maryland game itself. All three are the exact same scenario, so I'm just going to lay it out here. Team A (on left) is an intruding team. Prior to their conference tournament, they had no aspirations of playing in the NCAA tournament. Now, though, they've won a few games and are in their conference tournament final. Were they to win, they would steal an at-large spot because team B (bold, on right) will be in the tournament no matter what (with the possible exception of Temple). It sounds like a good story, until you realize that bubble spots are hard to come by nowadays. Anyway ...

- USC/Arizona State

- Baylor/Missouri

- Duquesne/Temple

Those are the three. Be in front of your TV or computer from 6:00 to 8:00 if you're any kind of college basketball fan. 

Also, I didn't list them, but remember to root for Utah at 7:00 and Utah State at 10:00 so they can win their conference tournaments and not drop themselves into the at-large field. 

So go Terps, Owls, Sun Devils, Aggies, Utes, Volunteers, and three different types of Tigers (weird, huh?). Today's going to be a huge day. 

10:30 Update: Win, Now Are They In?

What a great win by Maryland. Say what you will about Wake's shooting, and it was poor, but the Terps played some great defense tonight. They played their zone perfectly, confusing Jeff Teague, whose only solution was to try to draw as many fouls as he could. Meanwhile, Maryland attacked early and often, getting to the line over 20 times (compared to the two times the first time Maryland and Wake met). Vasquez continued his stellar play and Neal continued to be, somehow, the second best player on the team. It was great to see Milbourne and Mosley step up to have their first good games in what seems like a month. There's probably about a 75% chance Maryland is in the tournament now, but there will be a 100% chance they will be in if they get another victory tomorrow. 

Unfortunately, Baylor and Temple are doing all they can to take away at-large spots from Maryland and other bubble teams. This will in all likelihood be the last post of the day, so let's recap:

The Good

- (from earlier): Michigan State is making Minnesota sweat on the bubble; UNC eliminated Virginia Tech's at-large hopes; LSU did the same to Kentucky

- South Carolina suffered a crippling defeat at the hands of Mississippi State. The Gamecocks are all but out of at-large consideration now. It is looking more and more like the SEC will be a two-bid league, unless Florida sneaks in. 

- Memphis continues to roll through the Conference-USA tournament, beating Houston by 25. They play in the finals tomorrow. 

- Illinois beat Michigan, another game with huge implications. Michigan is considered by many to be in the NCAA tournament anyway, but when fellow bubble team Maryland has the head-to-head advantage, Michigan can't feel too good. 

The Bad

- Wisconsin couldn't hold off Ohio State in a typically ugly, slow-paced Big 10 game. Ohio State can now consider themselves to be a lock for the NCAA tournament. 

- Xavier choked and got upset by Temple. Not only is Temple definitely in the conversation for an at-large bid, but they have a good chance to automatically qualify, as they play in the A-10 title game tomorrow. Bubble teams everywhere were counting on the Atlantic 10 to be a two-bid league, but Temple is doing it's best to make sure it gets to 3. 

- Baylor wasn't even on my radar, but they play in arguably the most important game of tomorrow for Terp fans (besides the Maryland game itself). If Baylor does in fact win the Big 12 title game, there's another bid lost, and Maryland's chances may drop from about 75 to 50%. 

Still in progress

- BYU needs to beat San Diego State so they can end State's bubble chances and make sure nobody but them or Utah wins the MWC tournament, but they are down three.

- Utah State is down by one point to New Mexico State; if Utah State were to lose, they would be on the bubble, and may take Maryland's place. 

- Duquesne is making bubble teams' fans nauseous. They are up double digits with a little over two minutes left against Dayton. Dayton's going to get in, so the A-10 has become a 3-bid league. If Duquesne can beat Temple tomorrow, it may even get talked up as a 4-bid league. 

- Finally, for a piece of good news: Purdue is stomping on Penn State, which should be enough to kick Penn State out of serious bubble contention. As I write this, I see Purdue actually just beat Penn State. 

- Florida-Auburn is a one point game at the half. If Auburn were to win and then lose their next game, it is a distinct possibility the SEC would only send LSU and Tennessee. 

Later Tonight

- Root for UCLA to squash USC's bubble and Utah to beat Wyoming to get to the MWC title game. 

3:30 Update: So Far, So Perfect

The early games of the day started off nicely. Here's a look at what's happened to far today that's gone in Maryland's favor. There won't be an update until after the Maryland game tonight. 

They may already be in, but Minnesota's loss to Michigan State is definitely going to make them sweat a bit. With no bad losses, the Gophers have a very positive resume, highlighted by their win against Louisville. Maryland may need to win their next to games to pass Minnesota, but every little bit helps. 

In a wild finish, UNC beat Virginia Tech. VT would have been in if they had gotten the win, but because they didn't, they are likely on the outside. Maryland has an overall better resume than the Hokies at this point. 

Kentucky had only a very outside chance at the tournament, but that was squashed with their loss to LSU. It also guarantees LSU, an SEC lock, will keep going and have a chance to win their tournament. 

Currently, Wisconsin is beating Ohio State, a loss for the Buckeyes that would put them in a precarious position indeed. 

Before the Maryland game, be sure to root for Mississippi State against South Carolina, Memphis against Houston, Illinois against Michigan, and Xavier against Temple. 

A Brand New - And More Important - Day

After Wyoming ended the day on a high note by all but eliminating New Mexico from at-large consideration, Friday begins. And while Thursday eliminated its share of bubble teams (Miami, Rhode Island and Kansas State to name a few), Friday has a chance to put some teams in the tournament, particularly those that play in the Big 10. Rooting interest now almost solely lies in rooting against other bubble teams, although it is as important as ever to root for Memphis to win the Conference USA, Utah State to win the WAC, either BYU or Utah to win the MWC, and Xavier or Dayton to win the A-10. I'll be back at around 3:00 to talk about the huge impacts that the Minnesota-Michigan State, UNC-VT and LSU-Kentucky games will have on the picture. 

Last Update of the Day

Well, the most important game of the day went Maryland's way - I am, of course, referring to Maryland's gutsy comeback performance against NC State. When all looked lost (and for the majority of the first half, all definitely looked lost), Maryland managed to find a way. Kudos to Eric Hayes for singlehandedly preserving Maryland's NCAA hopes. Without him, Greivis just would have gotten frustrated and turning the ball over, and Maryland may never have gotten out of their first half rut. Wake Forest presents matchup problems galore tomorrow, but the Terps have shown that when they take care of the ball and shoot well, they can play with anyone. 

Now, only one more bubble game of the day - Wyoming at New Mexico. A loss by New Mexico would be huge, but is not absolutely necessary: a defeat of Wyoming isn't exactly a big-time win. 

As for the rest of the day ...

The Good

- (from earlier) Louisville popped Providence's bubble; Virginia Tech popped Miami's bubble; BYU is still on track to win the Mountain West; Arizona State ended Arizona; Texas ended Kansas State

- from 5:30: Utah State took care of Fresno State to stay in control for winning the WAC

- from 6:30: Rhode Island's chance for an at-large bid ended with a 4-point loss to Duquesne

- from 7:00: Memphis scared everyone, but ended up beating Tulane by 10 to stay in the Conference USA tournament

- from 9:00: Utah, thanks to a game winning three pointer as time expired, beat TCU to put themselves one step closer to the MWC championship

The Bad (and sadly there was a lot more of it in the later games)

- (from earlier) Xavier keeps going; Minnesota may have locked up a bid against Northwestern; Iowa didn't give Michigan a game; Temple gets a resume-boosting win against St. Joseph's

- from 5:00: Penn State beat Indiana. It won't help the weakest part of Penn State's resume, their RPI, but they have a chance for a huge win tomorrow now

- from 5:30: San Diego State, in contention for an at-large bid from the MWC, rolled past UNLV

- from 7:00: Oklahoma State secured an at-large bid by defeating Oklahoma

- from 9:00: Boston College may have had an at-large big anyway, but they secured it with an easy win over Virginia

Dayton can feel good about their at-large chances as well after their victory over Richmond

- from 9:45: Arkansas could not pull off the upset over bubble team Florida

That's all for today. I'll be back tomorrow for more of the same. 

6:30 Update

The success from earlier in the day carried on to the afternoon - almost. Three of the five relevant games that took place at 2:30 or 3:00 went the Terps' way. Here's the final look at the bubble picture before the Maryland game tonight. 

Arizona State beat Arizona by 10, which could prove huge. Arizona State is well in, but Arizona was about as square on the bubble as a team could possibly be. Even with the loss, the Wildcats will still have a better resume than the Terps with a single win tonight, but if the Terps can take down Wake Forest as well, Maryland should leapfrog them. 

BYU, who is considered to be a lock coming out of the Mountain West, took care of business against Air Force, so no Cinderella there. 

Another huge win was Texas's versus Kansas State. Texas would have had to have been absolutely destroyed for them to even consider themselves on the bubble, so the rooting interest was against Kansas State, who, if they were to win a few Big 12 tournament games, would have a valid case. This loss crippled Kansas State's chances. 

Temple beat St. Joseph's, which went against the Terps, but Temple will likely need more than that to be chosen for an at-large selection. 

Michigan also destroyed Iowa, which doesn't bode well. Michigan could be close to locking up an at-large, but they would need a win tomorrow to make things certain. It bears worth repeating that if things came down to Maryland vs. Michigan, Maryland would have the head-to-head advantage. 

All of this is for naught (for Terps fans at least) if Maryland lays the egg they are expect to lay against NC State tonight. Even if that happens, though, I'll still be here because the bubble will still be in flux. It helps that I've given up faith in the Terps so I'm looking at them like their loss is a given. Be back around 9:30 tonight. 

2:00 Update

The Terps (and bubble teams everywhere, minus those who have played and lost) went 3-1 in the 12:00 games.

 

Virginia Tech gave a death blow to Miami's bubble chances with a solid beat-down. Miami is now 7-10 in conference and has concluded a disappointing season. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has put themselves in good position if they can get a win against UNC tomorrow. If not, then VT looks eliminated as well. 

Louisville beat Providence badly, all but assuring the Friars of an NIT berth. Louisville looks to capture the Big East title, which would all but assuredly give them a number one seed in the NCAA tournament. 

Xavier took care of St. Louis. Xavier is going to make the NCAA tournament no matter what, so hopefully they will take care of the A-10 tournament and not let any extra bids sneak in. 

The only game that went against the Terps from the early starts was Northwestern-Minnesota, a battle of two teams on the bubble. The day started with Minnesota on the right side, and Northwestern on the wrong side. After the win, Minnesota can now be considered a lock, while Northwestern's very slim chances have disappeared. 

The next update will be before the Maryland game this evening, after the five noteworthy 2:30 and 3:00 games have transpired. If you happen to catch any, Iowa, St. Joseph's, BYU, Arizona State and Texas could all use your cheers.