Terp Basketball Offseason 1: The Returning Players

I was going to do a 2009-10 season outlook, but I realized there are way too many question marks still out there about the personnel that will be playing next year. So, I decided to do a two-part post about the possible personnel for next season. The first post will be a discussion on those players definitely returning to contribute to the team next year, and the second post will be about the question marks.

DEFINITE PLAYERS ON THE ROSTER NEXT SEASON

1. Landon Milbourne (SR): Milbourne followed a terrible freshman campaign (1.0 ppg, 0.8 rpg) with a so-so sophomore season (8.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg), and just followed that with a good junior season (11.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg). Terp fans can only hope he continues to progress and have a great senior year. Although his level of play diminished in ACC season because he was continually overmatched being a 6'7 power forward, Landon showed great toughness and the rare ability to consistently make a mid-range jumper.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: Milbourne is a definite starter next season. It could be at either forward position, but he will be in the starting lineup from the first to the last game, barring injury.

2. Sean Mosley (SO): Mosley was a fan favorite last season because of his incredible grittiness and determination. In only one season, he established himself as the Terps' best defender. Throughout the course of the season, he was matched up man-to-man with team's leading scorers, whether they were a guard or forward. He played much larger than his size (6'4), and often forced jump balls. Offensively, Mosley needs plenty of work. He showed flashes of terrific spin moves and ability to get into the lane, but rarely finished down low. His jump shot always looks good coming out of his hand, but his 37% FG% and 24% FG% (3-PT) need to improve. It would also be good to see his FT% (70.7%) jump up about five percentage points.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: Mosley started 16 of 35 games this year, including the last 15 games of the season. His role largely depends upon other personnel, but Mosley will probably (75%) start at either the shooting guard or third guard position next season.

3. Eric Hayes (SR): Hayes is almost as big of a "love him or hate him" type player as Greivis Vasquez was for the team this year, largely because it seemed that if you loved GV, you hated Hayes, and if you hated GV, you loved Hayes. Either way, nobody can argue with the seeming revitalization of Hayes, starting in the ACC tournament. After being one of the key factors in the loss to UVA to end the season (he missed his first six three-point attempts), Hayes singlehandedly led the team to victory against Wake Forest, and kept the team fighting against Duke. To Hayes's credit, after losing his starting job to Sean Mosley following the BC loss, Hayes never complained, and embraced his role as sixth man for the Terps. As the team's second best returning three point shooter and one of three seniors, Hayes will have a big role for the team next year.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: This is going to be one of the more interesting cases next year. Hayes will likely start if Vasquez leaves, but likely will come off the bench if Vasquez does indeed leave, so I'll call it 50%. Either way, he will get his minutes.

4. Adrian Bowie (JR): Bowie was arguably the most inconsistent player on an inconsistent team this season. He saw his points and assists greatly improve from his freshman to sophomore season (3.7ppg and 0.9 apg to 9.0 ppg and 3.0 apg) but also saw his FG% decrease from 58% to 45%. Bowie will almost always be the fastest player on the court when he plays, but teams (Memphis especially) were able to game-plan for him by sagging off him in the half-court and forcing him to take jump shots, which he could not consistently convert. His size often was a liability on defense, as he had to fight extra hard to get through screens on the perimeter, but his speed in the transition game was invaluable.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: Bowie started 28 of 35 games as a sophomore, but will likely be squeezed out of a starting spot as a junior because of the team's ability to field a serviceable front-court. Since the Terps will most likely play almost exclusively man-to-man defense next year, Bowie's minutes will largely depend on the opposing team's speed.

5. Cliff Tucker (JR): Tucker returns as the team's best three point shooter, and when he gets in, he is a key part of the team's offense. He didn't see much time during the year, though - a mere 12.2 mpg - because of his lackluster defense and apparent poor practice habits. Coach Williams is known to give minutes to those who do both of those things well, and has hinted that Tucker has disappointed him in both regards. Because of what he gives the team offensively, though, there will be minutes for Tucker if he can step up on the defensive end. As they say, he just needs to pretend he's playing against UNC every game (whom he averaged 20 points against).

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: There is likely going to be minutes for either Bowie or Tucker next year, but not both. Because of that, depending on the game, it is very likely that Bowie and Tucker's minutes will come inversely proportional to one another. I have a hard time imagining many scenarios where both are on the court at the same time next year.

6. Dino Gregory (JR): Gregory was bested only by Dave Neal as the team's biggest surprise this season. At 6'7 with not much weight on him, Gregory was undersized every time he stepped on the court, especially because he was forced to play center for a lot of his minutes. He made up for it defensively, though, because of his supreme leaping ability. He also probably took more charges than anyone else on the team. Offensively, he was not able to get much more than about one put-back on an offensive rebound per game, but he showed flashes of an ability shoot a short jumper. He should get with Keith Booth and focus on acquiring some low post moves this summer.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: Dino's going to play next year, and he may play a lot. Ideally, he and the two freshman will play in a three-man rotation at the two big positions, but Gary might be reluctant to constantly fill two positions on the court with three players who have a combined one year playing experience (Gregory only got in 16 games as a freshman). He probably won't start, but he will be one of the first two "bigs" off the bench.

7. Jordan Williams (FR): I have never seen Williams play, so all I can tell you is what I have seen on this page. Instantly, what has to jump out at you is his size: at 6'10, 240, Williams is going to be a big body for the Terps down low. Other than that, we will have to wait and see.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: I see Williams starting next year from day one. Don't get fooled into believing that what Dave Neal did this year (be a serviceable starting center in the ACC at 6'7) can be relied upon to be replicated. Williams is going to be the only player on the Terps with real size, and will be thrown into the fire early and often.

8. James Padgett (FR): Same deal with Williams. I've never seen him in person, so you can know what I know by reading this. At 6'8 with a little weight on him, he has good build for apower forward. I like the comments about him, especially about his toughness. This is the guy that scored 50 in a game this year. I don't care if that means he played against bad competition; I want a guy that can score 50 in a game on my team.

WAY TOO EARLY PROGNOSIS: Padgett has about a 25% chance of starting. He will start if either of the following happens: he outplays Williams in practice, or the Terps want to play a traditional lineup, but don't sign Terrell Vinson. If he doesn't get the starting nod, he will be a contributor for the team off the bench.

I'll be posting soon (likely tomorrow) about the players whose roles on the team are uncertain at this point.

(Photo Credits: umterps.com)

Vasquez Lashes Out at Student Section

The Terps - despite their complete inability to knock down a jump shot for the majority of the game - played good enough defense and hit some clutch free throws to start the ACC season off on the right foot, beating Georgia Tech 68-61 at the Comcast Center. At the game, it was very evident that guard Greivis Vasquez, who struggled for much of the game, was visibly upset with a part of the student section. He came on in the last 10 minutes of the game, and every time he made an assist or knocked down a shot, he would look toward one section of the crowd, and the big screen at the arena caught a visible "shut the f--- up" come from his mouth. Courtesy of the Baltimore Sun, here's what Vasquez (pictured, right) had to say after the game. 

"I don't know if they were booing me or booing the other team. It doesn't bother me. My mind is strong. We're 12 and 3. We were 9 and 5 last year about this time. What the hell are they thinking? If they don't want to believe in us, get the hell out. We don't need them here. We need the people who are going to support us and be with us. I want to say thank you to the people who were supporting us and believing in us. If you don't want to support us, get out."

Strong words, particularly to your own student section. You know what, though? Vasquez is absolutely right, and here's why. 

I am by no means saying that, as a fan, you shouldn't be allowed to criticize your team. I did it just the other day, writing that post about Gary Williams. When I'm at a game, though, do I boo Gary Williams as he does his traditional locker room-to-court march? No, because I'm not moronic. There's a thing in sports that is a proven factor, and it's called home field advantage. By booing your own team, you take away all home field advantage, and even reverse it so that the other team has the edge psychologically. What makes you think that by booing Greivis, he is going to play better?

One more thing about Vasquez. He is easily one of the most frustrating people to root for in sport history. He is cocky, he throws up bad shots, he plays out of control, and he plays without thinking a lot of the time. Here's another thing about Vasquez. He is by far Maryland's best player, and without him they probably would not score 60 points a game. He is the only player on offense that defenses need to account for. It was good to see Hayes step up against GT, but really, just guard him on the three point line. It was apparent in the first half what happens when he drives. Put a quick guy on Bowie, eliminate his drives, and you're golden. Milbourne can't score in the post as a power forward, and the Dave Neal dream was shot down rather easily once we got into conference play. Vasquez, though, will post up smaller players, drive by larger players, and can kick the ball out for an open three better than any Terp I've seen since Steve Blake. 

So, say what you want about Vasquez on your own time (even though I feel like if you think the team doesn't need him, you have problems), and I'll say my things about Gary on my own time. If you're at the game, though, use common sense. Root for your team. 

Good Start to the Weekend

Maryland kicked off the weekend with a 1-0 men's soccer victory against Boston College in the ACC tournament. The Terps dominated the entire game, but the only goal scored was an own goal from the BC defense after a Chris Brown save. 

The basketball team followed up by cruising easily past an overmatched Bucknell. Maryland's stellar guard play forced the Bison into 20 turnovers, many of them occurring as Bucknell treid to get past Maryland's press. Greivis Vasquez (13 pts, 6 rebs, 6 assists with only 1 turnover), Landon Milbourne (a team-high 16 pts) and Cliff Tucker (14 pts and 5 rebs in only 19 mins) all led the way for the Terps. 

Will the football team complete the weekend, winning against No. 17 UNC? We'll find out in a few hours. UNC is better than them, but Maryland is 5-0 at home this season, and 5-0 against ranked teams in their past five games. I like our chances. 

(Photo Credit: AP)

Exhibition Win for Terps

It may have only been an exhibition game, but the Maryland Terrapins looked pretty good on Saturday, beating the Northwood Seahawks 104-60.

The team was missing star guard Greivis Vasquez due to suspension (I'm told it was due to an off-the-court violation, i.e. he skipped a class or similar), but didn't miss a beat on offense. Junior Landon Milbourne and sophomores Adrian Bowie and Cliff Tucker picked up the slack.

Those three players contributing comes as no surprise. If the Terps want to compete with some of the best teams in the ACC, Milbourne will have to be the leader he says he's becoming and Bowie and Tucker have to score points on a regular basis.

What was surprising was freshman Jin Soo Kim. Kim, who was ruled eligible by NCAA Clearinghouse just last Monday, struggled in the first half, going 0-5 and 0-3 from three-point range. But in the 2nd half, Kim was lights-out, going 6-9 with 18 points (he finished with 20 total). He made several drives to the basket and was playing with confidence. He even used a nice head-fake to drive the lane, score, and get fouled for an extra shot. Comcast Center was as loud as it could possibly be for an exhibition game when Kim scored the shot I just mentioned.

Kim may very well be the x-factor for the Terps this season. If he can come off the bench and score 8-12 points a game, then they should be able to run with a lot of teams in the ACC. And for his height (6'8") and weight (a skinny 195), he plays pretty physical. He isn't afraid to get his nose dirty around the basket. With a small front court (the Terps' starting center, Braxton Dupree, is 6'8"), Kim could be a key player down the road.

But enough about the Korean sensation. It's just one exhibition game and no one has seen him play in a game that counts against a good team. He's still raw and unproven. But, Terps fans should be excited about his potential. It showed on Saturday.

My other thoughts about Saturday's exhibition win:

• Eric Hayes looks much more comfortable as the starting point guard. He ran the offense extremely well and made good passes. He even drained a couple of threes and was confident in himself. After the game, he said the win was important for not only the team, but the fans. Good to see him acknowledge the fans and his desire to make them happy, considering how much scrutiny he faces.
• Landon Milbourne is going to be one of the best Terps this season. On Saturday he was all over the court and made plays on both the offensive and defensive ends. He told me after the game that he's been working on being a leader and that he made some speeches before the game. Milbourne is one of the team's tri-captains (along with Dave Neal and Greivis Vasquez) and it definitely showed Saturday. He set the tone early on and the team never let up, even when he was on the bench.
• Braxton Dupree needs to make his presence felt. He was generally invisible on Saturday and didn't get involved with the offense until late in the game. We'll see if that was result of Northwood's height (3 players 7 feet tall or above - one was 7'5") or Dupree not being aggressive. On the defensive end, he held his own, which might be all they need from him.

Maryland Basketball: Better Than You Think

A week from now is the commencement of the Maryland basketball season as they host Northwood on the afternoon of Nov. 8. The Terps are coming off a disappointing season - again - as they were again chosen to play in the NIT instead of the NCAA tournament. Early season losses to Ohio and American (they play American again, by the way) really hurt the Terps at the end of the year, as did losing both games to fellow bubble team VT. Perhaps most important of all was the collapse at home to Clemson - blowing a 20+ point lead with less than 10 minutes left in the game.

It wasn't all bad, though, and that should be duly noted. The Terps beat UNC at UNC. Despite all of the above, the Terps were perhaps a win away from the NCAA tournament. Positive notes from last year include the elevation of play from Greivis Vasquez, who, as a sophomore, was Second Team All-ACC and had numbers to be on the first team. Landon Milbourne took a big step forward last year, too. As a freshman, he only averaged 1.0 ppg and 0.8 rpg, but last year upped his totals to 8.2 ppg and 3.5 rpg. Of course, when you think of Landon Milboune, you tend to think of this. 

However, because of last year's finish, coupled with the loss of starting power forward James Gist and center Bambale Osby, the Terps are officially projected to be 7th in the ACC (see where all the conference teams stack up here), and lower in other publications. In ESPN's Dick Vitale's preseason top 40, the Terps do not make an appearance. 

Questions abound about the program. Sportline.com's college basketball writer Gary Parrish has Gary Williams on his list of top 10 coaches to be fired. Many people are beginning to grow tired of upper-echelon recruits from Maryland leaving to go to other schools (Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, and Ty Lawson are only a few examples). Many people are beginning to grow tired of the NIT appearances (3 of the past 4 years) after the team's 2002 national championship. Many people are beginning to grow tired of the top recruits that Maryland gets (Mike Jones, for example) not panning out. Many are considering this to be a make or break year for the longtime coach.  

However, after extensive thought and watching the team's intrasquad scrimmage, I've decided that Maryland turns it around this year. Here's why. 

Backcourt: One of the best in the ACC

- Eric Hayes has played the best out of every member of the team this offseason. He could always shoot, but some questioned his ability to get open and his ball control, especially during big games. The big games part we won't know about until it happens, but I can tell you that this will be a Eric Hayes we haven't seen before. He has perfected the one-hand floater and can still bomb from deep. In addition, he can take defender off the dribble, something he hasn't been able to do before. I saw him do it multiple times against Adrian Bowie, one of the Terps' fastest players and bester defenders. 

- If Hayes can successfully run the point like he has done during practice, Greivis Vasquez will be allowed to play his more natural position: shooting guard. This will take the ball out of his hands less, meaning less turnovers. However, this will also mean that his assists (he was tops in the ACC last year) might also decrease. Nonetheless, this is the better position for Vasquez because of how well he slashes to the basket. He is not a terrific shooter, but when he gets hot, he can knock 'em down. 

- The bench is what makes this backcourt so great, though. Besides Hayes, the best player in the scrimmages has been Cliff Tucker. He has not been solid defensively, which irks - to say the least - Gary Williams. He has shown quickness and athleticism I didn't know he had, though, and has been knocking down his jumpers from everywhere.

- Adrian Bowie is still afraid to shoot the ball, and doesn't run the offense that well. However, his quickness allows him to be lethal in transition, and one of the Terps' better defenders.

- Sean Mosley is the real question mark. He hasn't done too much in the scrimmages, but will certainly get better throughout the season. Right now, he is one thing that the Terps really lack: a solid, reliable player. He won't have many turnovers, he'll stick to his guy defensively, and he'll knock down a jumper. He needs to get more involved in the offense.

Frontcourt: They won't score, but you may have a tough time scoring against them.

- Of course, this group took a huge hit with the losses of Osby, Gist, and top recruit/transfer Gus Gilchrist. Those losses hurt less than you think, though, when you look closely at the numbers. 

- Jerome Burney this year will play the role of Bambale Osby. Osby had 11.5 ppg and 6.5 rpg, as well as 69 blocks. Jerome Burney will match those numbers. He has looked like a monster on the defensive end, blocking 6 shots in the latest scrimmage. His height (6'9) and athleticism will allow him to be near double digit rebounds every game. 

- Landon Milbourne and Braxton Dupree will play the role of James Gist. Gist put up big stats last year: 16 ppg, 8 rpg, 77 blocks. Gist, and this went largely unnoticed, largely disappeared when it mattered, though. Consider his 8 points against Ohio. Consider his 3 points and 4 rebounds against American. I will give him credit for his strong performances against UNC and the first time against Duke, but where was he at the end of the year? 7 points vs. VT, 10 points at Miami, a 31 point explosion against Wake, and then shooting less than 50% for 15 against Clemson. 

Meanwhile, Milbourne has impressed me. He's 6'7, but plays taller because of how tall he can jump. He can also knock down the outside jumper much better than Gist. If they put Milbourne as a power forward, he will also be much quicker than those he's matched up against and should be able to drive past them from the perimeter. 

He'll hold his own defensively, but that is where Braxton Dupree steps in. Nobody will make bigger strides this season than Braxton. He was making progress towards the end of the first semester last year, but then dropped off after showing up well overweight after Christmas. He's in shape, now, however, and Gary Williams has made sure of it. In the previous scrimmage, the team played four 10-minute segments of the black team having 7 players and the red team having 5. Gary kept switching the teams so some players could get rest. The only player who he kept on the red team all four times? Braxton Dupree. He'll be a force defensively, and if he develops some moves offensively, it will just be a bonus.

- Newcomer Steve Goins has size, but is unpolished and probably won't get much playing time.

- Dave Neal will be Dave Neal. Don't make fun; he will play a key role on this team. 

Intangibles: All of them

- Gary Williams is feeling the heat.

- This isn't the first, and won't be the last, time that Gary will overachieve with his talent.

- This is an embarrassed team. They came to play for Maryland, not Florida State. They know they need to be better. 

- Comcast Center will rock it this year. Everyone knows how important of a season this is. 

Bottom Line: You heard it here first, the Terps get back in the dance. 

- There is little lost from last year's team that won't be adequately replaced this year.

- A very young team last year is a whole year more experienced.

- Vasquez won't have to play point, and will be the leader that Gist should have been. 

- Projected starting lineup: 

PG: Hayes, backed up by Bowie

SG: Vasquez: backed up by Mosley

SF: Milbourne, backed up by Cliff Tucker

PF: Dupree, backed up Neal

C: Burney, backed up by a rotation

- Other lineups I see involve three guards with Vasquez at the 3; a three guard lineup with Milbourne at the 4 and Dupree at the 5; 4 guard lineup with Burney at center. Not lying. 

- The keys will be if Hayes can play a solid point guard for the entire year, and whether Milbourne can defend against power forwards in the ACC. I think they will.

Prediction: 21-9 (9-7)

(Photo Credits: AP and The Washington Post)