Friday, March 13, 2009

A Brand New - And More Important - Day

After Wyoming ended the day on a high note by all but eliminating New Mexico from at-large consideration, Friday begins. And while Thursday eliminated its share of bubble teams (Miami, Rhode Island and Kansas State to name a few), Friday has a chance to put some teams in the tournament, particularly those that play in the Big 10. Rooting interest now almost solely lies in rooting against other bubble teams, although it is as important as ever to root for Memphis to win the Conference USA, Utah State to win the WAC, either BYU or Utah to win the MWC, and Xavier or Dayton to win the A-10. I'll be back at around 3:00 to talk about the huge impacts that the Minnesota-Michigan State, UNC-VT and LSU-Kentucky games will have on the picture. 

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Last Update of the Day

Well, the most important game of the day went Maryland's way - I am, of course, referring to Maryland's gutsy comeback performance against NC State. When all looked lost (and for the majority of the first half, all definitely looked lost), Maryland managed to find a way. Kudos to Eric Hayes for singlehandedly preserving Maryland's NCAA hopes. Without him, Greivis just would have gotten frustrated and turning the ball over, and Maryland may never have gotten out of their first half rut. Wake Forest presents matchup problems galore tomorrow, but the Terps have shown that when they take care of the ball and shoot well, they can play with anyone. 

Now, only one more bubble game of the day - Wyoming at New Mexico. A loss by New Mexico would be huge, but is not absolutely necessary: a defeat of Wyoming isn't exactly a big-time win. 
As for the rest of the day ...

The Good
- (from earlier) Louisville popped Providence's bubble; Virginia Tech popped Miami's bubble; BYU is still on track to win the Mountain West; Arizona State ended Arizona; Texas ended Kansas State
- from 5:30: Utah State took care of Fresno State to stay in control for winning the WAC
- from 6:30: Rhode Island's chance for an at-large bid ended with a 4-point loss to Duquesne
- from 7:00: Memphis scared everyone, but ended up beating Tulane by 10 to stay in the Conference USA tournament
- from 9:00: Utah, thanks to a game winning three pointer as time expired, beat TCU to put themselves one step closer to the MWC championship

The Bad (and sadly there was a lot more of it in the later games)
- (from earlier) Xavier keeps going; Minnesota may have locked up a bid against Northwestern; Iowa didn't give Michigan a game; Temple gets a resume-boosting win against St. Joseph's
- from 5:00: Penn State beat Indiana. It won't help the weakest part of Penn State's resume, their RPI, but they have a chance for a huge win tomorrow now
- from 5:30: San Diego State, in contention for an at-large bid from the MWC, rolled past UNLV
- from 7:00: Oklahoma State secured an at-large bid by defeating Oklahoma
- from 9:00: Boston College may have had an at-large big anyway, but they secured it with an easy win over Virginia
Dayton can feel good about their at-large chances as well after their victory over Richmond
- from 9:45: Arkansas could not pull off the upset over bubble team Florida

That's all for today. I'll be back tomorrow for more of the same. 

6:30 Update

The success from earlier in the day carried on to the afternoon - almost. Three of the five relevant games that took place at 2:30 or 3:00 went the Terps' way. Here's the final look at the bubble picture before the Maryland game tonight. 

Arizona State beat Arizona by 10, which could prove huge. Arizona State is well in, but Arizona was about as square on the bubble as a team could possibly be. Even with the loss, the Wildcats will still have a better resume than the Terps with a single win tonight, but if the Terps can take down Wake Forest as well, Maryland should leapfrog them. 
BYU, who is considered to be a lock coming out of the Mountain West, took care of business against Air Force, so no Cinderella there. 
Another huge win was Texas's versus Kansas State. Texas would have had to have been absolutely destroyed for them to even consider themselves on the bubble, so the rooting interest was against Kansas State, who, if they were to win a few Big 12 tournament games, would have a valid case. This loss crippled Kansas State's chances. 
Temple beat St. Joseph's, which went against the Terps, but Temple will likely need more than that to be chosen for an at-large selection. 
Michigan also destroyed Iowa, which doesn't bode well. Michigan could be close to locking up an at-large, but they would need a win tomorrow to make things certain. It bears worth repeating that if things came down to Maryland vs. Michigan, Maryland would have the head-to-head advantage. 

All of this is for naught (for Terps fans at least) if Maryland lays the egg they are expect to lay against NC State tonight. Even if that happens, though, I'll still be here because the bubble will still be in flux. It helps that I've given up faith in the Terps so I'm looking at them like their loss is a given. Be back around 9:30 tonight. 

2:00 Update

The Terps (and bubble teams everywhere, minus those who have played and lost) went 3-1 in the 12:00 games.
 
Virginia Tech gave a death blow to Miami's bubble chances with a solid beat-down. Miami is now 7-10 in conference and has concluded a disappointing season. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has put themselves in good position if they can get a win against UNC tomorrow. If not, then VT looks eliminated as well. 
Louisville beat Providence badly, all but assuring the Friars of an NIT berth. Louisville looks to capture the Big East title, which would all but assuredly give them a number one seed in the NCAA tournament. 
Xavier took care of St. Louis. Xavier is going to make the NCAA tournament no matter what, so hopefully they will take care of the A-10 tournament and not let any extra bids sneak in. 
The only game that went against the Terps from the early starts was Northwestern-Minnesota, a battle of two teams on the bubble. The day started with Minnesota on the right side, and Northwestern on the wrong side. After the win, Minnesota can now be considered a lock, while Northwestern's very slim chances have disappeared. 

The next update will be before the Maryland game this evening, after the five noteworthy 2:30 and 3:00 games have transpired. If you happen to catch any, Iowa, St. Joseph's, BYU, Arizona State and Texas could all use your cheers. 

Here We Go

It's the beginning of the two best weekends of the year - at least for college basketball fans. And while the Terps don't finish their game for another 10 hours (10 more hours to hope for a miracle), it's time to focus on the bubble. So sit back and do nothing, ladies and gentlemen, because there are a total of 21 games that will start at 12 PM and end at 1:30 AM that will have an impact on the Terps' chances. I'll be constantly updating. 

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Offseason brings high turnover in NFL

Every offseason of the NFL means free agency, the draft, coaching changes, and trades. Players change teams more than ever and fans and teams alike do not blink when their best player tests the free-agent market like Albert Haynesworth did this year.

What is interesting, however, is how there seems to be lots of players being moved who were once considered mainstays of teams. Players who spent ten or more years with one team were traded or tested free agency.

Today's news of the Rams releasing Orlando Pace, the #1 overall pick in 1997, is just one example of a player who many figured would spend his whole career with one team. Now, he could go anywhere. I know it will be weird for me, personally, when Brian Dawkins (pictured, left) suits up for the Broncos and Lito Sheppard plays for the Jets. Both were players I figured would never leave Philadelphia and I can't imagine their defense without them.

Marvin Harrison may be catching passes from a quarterback not named Peyton Manning and Torry Holt will not be in St. Louis next year. Strange.

Players are not the only people changing colors. This past offseason saw Tony Dungy and Mike Holmgrem retire and Jon Gruden, Mike Shanahan, and Herman Edwards fired, five coaches who have been around for as long as I've been an NFL fan. It will be odd seeing Jim More Jr. stoll the sidelines in Seattle and someone other than Dungy coaching the Colts.

I'm sure a large part of the reason for the high turnover is the fact that the Falcons, Dolphins, and Ravens had great success with young coaches. The salary cap is obviously another reason but teams like the Ravens and Chargers found ways to keep their long-time faces on the team despite potential salary cap hits.

Still, the 2009-2010 NFL season will be one of new faces all over the league. Players and coaches alike have changed teams and I wonder how guys like Harrison and Holt will do on new teams (Jerry Rice had a tough time as a Raider and Seahawk, and how weird was it seeing him there?) and what kind of impact Pace, Dawkins, Shepperd, etc. will have on their respective teams.

Monday, March 9, 2009

The Big Post

"It's not all about talent." You hear that all the time about sports teams. "You can have all the talent in the world, but that doesn't mean anything." You hear that too. "A great coach is worth more than a few great players." That may ring a bell as well.
Next time somebody tells you any of that, just tell them they're lying, because they are, even if they don't know it yet.
Time for bold so you don't miss this. 19 of the past 20 national champion teams in college basketball have had at least three players go on to play in the NBA, and all 20 have had two. Now, I recognize there's a difference between playing in the NBA and actually being good in the NBA. I get all that. I also get that you have to have some talent to get there in the first place.
Don't believe me? See for yourself. The following is the list of teams and the players for those teams who have gone on to play at least one minute in the NBA. Bear in mind that the Gators of 2005-07 and Jayhawks of 07-08 could still send people to the NBA. 

1989 Michigan Wolverines (4): Loy Vaught, 10 years; Glen Rice, 15 years; Terry Mills, 11 years; Rumeal Robinson, 7 years
1990 UNLV Runnin' Rebels (3): Greg Anthony, 11 years; Stacey Augmon, 17 years; Larry Johnson, 10 years
1991 Duke Blue Devils (5): Bobby Hurley, 6 years; Antonio Lang, 6 years; Brian Davis, 1 year; Christian Laettner, 13 years; Grant Hill, 15+ years
1992 Duke Blue Devils (6): Bobby Hurley, 6 years; Antonio Lang, 6 years; Brian Davis, 1 year; Christian Laettner, 13 years; Grant Hill, 15+ years; Cherokee Parks, 10 years
1993 North Carolina Tar Heels (6): Eric Montross, 9 years; Jeff McInnis, 13+ years; Derrick Phelps, 1 year; Rasheed Wallace, 14+ years; Kevin Salvadori, 2 years; Jerry Stackhouse, 14+ years
1994 Arkansas Razorbacks (3): Corliss Williamson, 12 years; Corey Beck, 3 years; Clint McDaniel, 1 year
1995 UCLA Bruins (5): Tyus Edney, 4 years; Toby Bailey, 1 year; Charles O'Bannon, 2 years; George Zidek, 3 years; Ed O'Bannon 3 years
1996 Kentucky Wildcats (9): Tony Delk, 10 years; Antoine Walker, 13 years; Walter McCarty, 10 years; Derek Anderson, 11 years; Ron Mercer, 8 year; Mark Pope, 6 years; Jeff Sheppard, 1 year; Wayne Turner, 1 year; Nazr Mohammed, 10+ years
1997 Arizona Wildcats (4): Mike Bibby, 11+ years; Michael Dickerson, 4 years; A.J. Bramlett, 1 year; Jason Terry, 10+ years
1998 Kentucky Wildcats (5): Scott Padgett, 7 years; Nazr Mohammed, 10+ years; Jeff Sheppard, 1 year, Wayne Turner, 1 year; Jamaal Magloire, 8+ years
1999 Connecticut Huskies (3): Richard Hamilton, 10+ years; Jake Voskuhl, 10+ years; Khalid El-Amin, 1 year
2000 Michigan State Spartans (4): Charlie Bell, 2 years; Mateen Cleaves, 6 years; Morris Peterson, 9+ years; Jason Richardson, 8+ years
2001 Duke Blue Devils (6): Carlos Boozer, 7+ years; Chris Duhon, 5+ years; Jay Williams, 1 year; Dahntay Jones, 6+ years; Shane Battier, 8+ years; Mike Dunleavy, 7+ years
2002 Maryland Terrapins (4): Lonny Baxter, 3 years; Steve Blake, 6+ years; Juan Dixon, 7+ years; Chris Wilcox, 7+ years
2003 Syracuse Orangemen (2): Carmelo Anthony, 6+ years; Hakim Warrick, 4+ years
2004 Connecticut Huskies (6): Hilton Armstrong, 3+ years; Josh Boone, 3+ years; Ben Gordon, 5+ years; Emeka Okafor, 5+ years; Charlie Villanueva, 4+ years; Marcus Williams, 3+ years
2005 North Carolina Tar Heels (6): Raymond Felton, 4+ years; Sean May, 4+ years; Rashad McCants, 4+ years; David Noel, 1 year; Jawad Williams, 1 year; Marvin Williams, 4+ years
2006 Florida Gators (5): Corey Brewer, 2+ years; Taurean Green, 1 year; Al Horford, 2+ years; Joakim Noah, 2+ years; Chris Richard, 1 year
2007 Florida Gators (6): Corey Brewer, 2+ years; Taurean Green, 1 year; Joakim Noah, 2+ years; Marreese Speights, 1+ year; Al Horford, 2+ years; Chris Richard, 1 year
2008 Kansas Jayhawks (4): Darrell Arthur, 1+ year; Mario Chalmers, 1+ year; Darnell Jackson, 1+ year; Brandon Rush, 1+ year

... So why did I just spend the past few days of my life compiling this? A couple of reasons. First, when you make your bracket this coming week, make sure your national champion team has three potential NBA players on it (or two + Carmelo Anthony). Second, I wanted to make a point about Maryland. 
Do you know how many players since the national championship team have played a game in the NBA? One. DJ Strawberry. Maybe Vasquez will get in, maybe he won't. My point is that sure, the 2002 national champion team has been heralded as the team of non-stars. Steve Blake is starting for a playoff team right now, though. Chris Wilcox has been a productive sixth man for his entire career. Juan Dixon has been bounced around from team to team, but always ends up on a team. If Lonny Baxter didn't fire a gun in front of the White House, who knows where he would be. That team had talent.
This team? Well besides Vasquez, who's going to go pro? Milbourne? He may get a few looks but there's no way he's tough enough defensively. Before the season, people were touting Mosley as that guy, and he could develop into a great player still, but first I want to see him make a layup. 

Next year, though ... say Lance Stephenson decides that Maryland is the school for him (he will make his decision on April 15). If he comes, Vasquez has already announced that he will come back. That's two probable NBA players right there. I'm not saying Maryland has a chance to win the national championship because they don't. They could at least give it a fighting shot, though, because, if Stephenson comes, they will have some talent. I think this post has proven above everything that on national championship teams, NBA talent is the common denominator.