Maryland vs. Cal

Sorry this is late, loyal readers. I've been back and forth on this whole California game. When the draw came out, at first, I couldn't have been happier. A small team from the Pac-10? Please. Show me the Memphis game film right now. 

Then I did bracket research, and my faith kinda sunk. I didn't know Cal was that good at shooting the three. Like, number one in the nation, 43.4% good. As in, our best three point shooter on our team is Cliff Tucker, who is 40%. And they have a team that averages 3.4% better than that. 

And our three point defense is that bad? Like, 184th in the nation? Trailing, in order, Manhattan, Vermont, Rider and UCF. Uh oh. 

Then, I took comfort, because I realized the obvious solution, and if I realized it, Gary Williams realized in 1/10 of the time that I did and had perfected it by the time it even hit my mind. Maryland's three point defense numbers are completely a result of the team's strategy, not talent. It should not be forgotten why Adrian Bowie (pictured, left) is on this team. I'll give you a hint: it's not for his offense. He's just as bad as Mosley at this whole making-lay ups business, and his shooting numbers (both free throw and three point) are abysmal. But he still starts because he's tough, he's fast, and he's a tenacious defender. Sean Mosley has even less offense, but starts for an NCAA tournament team because he positively refuses to back down to anybody on defense. And don't you forget the jobs defensively that Greivis Vasquez did  last season to Tyrese Rice of Boston College and A.D. Vassallo of Virginia Tech. Landon Milbourne can't do anything against a good power forward and Dave Neal does little more than hold his ground (when he's not foolishly going over the back for a steal), but the team has good defensive guards. 

And that's why the Terps are going to beat California. Offensively, it's going to be simple. Run, run, run, and when you can't run, Vasquez will put the ball on his shoulder and go prancing into the lane and throw up shots you hate him for until they go in. This isn't Wake Forest, Cal doesn't have the athletic shot blockers to keep him out. If they go zone and collapse on him, the only player that may be on the court for the Terps that isn't afraid to step out and knock down the triple is Dino Gregory (who, if you've noticed, actually has developed a decent mid-range game). 

On defense, this team has been the most successful when it has gone to a 3-2 zone, particularly with Mosley (pictured, right) at the top of it. That's because big men in the ACC like Tyler Hansbrough, Kyle Singler, KC Rivers, Gani Lawal, and Al-Farouq Aminu would absolutely eat up our low post players one-on-one. Cal doesn't have any of those guys. Their top scorer? 5'10 Jerome Randle, known for his speed. Stick Bowie on him and let them duke it out all game. Next? 6'5 Christopher Patrick. Christopher Patrick, meet Sean Mosley. Next? 6'6 forward Theo Robertson. 6'6 and likes playing outside? Meet the General, Greivis Vasquez. Stick the team's three best defenders on their three leading scorers and trust that neither Jamal Boykin nor Jordan Wilkes, averaging a combined 14.4 points per game, won't beat you inside.

Cal's best basketball is far behind them, and their three point shooting has come back to earth as well. Maryland knows they can play with any team in the country, and are hot at the right time. There's no reason the Terps shouldn't win this one, but they'll make it interesting for us anyway. 

The prediction? Maryland 76, Cal 71. 

(Photo Credits: umterps.com)