Friday, September 18, 2009

Quick Correction

On Wednesday's show, I said Keyshawn Johnson made his inflammatory remark toward Raven wide receivers during ESPN's "Sunday NFL Countdown." I was wrong, it was during a conference call on ESPN earlier that day. My bad.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

NFL Power Rankings 2009: Week 2

Sorry about the little delay here. If you were looking for the AL Division races post, it came up on blogger before the power rankings post, so check it out here. Sorry about the font issues with that one, by the way. But anyway, here are week 2 power rankings. You will notice one thing immediately: I, 100%, will not drop a team if they won their game. That means the Steelers, Patriots, Ravens and Chargers, among others, can breathe a little easier after some obvious flaws were shown in week 1. The mark of a good team is 1) to be able to win games despite your flaws, and 2) to be able to learn from your mistakes and correct them for the next week. So, if the problems persist and any of those teams fall because of them, we could see significant droppage. With that made-up word, I give you week 2.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (last week: 1; change: 0): With Santonio Holmes emerging as a star in this league, Pittsburgh will be able to get away with throwing the ball more. It's not going to do anything for Big Ben's health, though.
2. New England Patriots (2; 0): Their defense, as we thought, isn't too much. That being said, the offense is only beginning to click. By the end of the year, they'll be consistently putting up 30+ again.
3. New York Giants (3; 0): If Ahmad Bradshaw can continue being effective (he put up pretty good numbers against what will be a very good Redskins rush D), the Giants shouldn't even notice Derrick Ward is gone.
4. Indianapolis Colts (4; 0): Sure, the win against Jacksonville wasn't the prettiest of things, but the Colts were slow out of the gates last year, too. They have Peyton Manning.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (5; 0): It's a shame McNabb got hurt. I don't care what the experts are saying, it's competitive instinct to go diving into the end zone there.
6. San Diego Chargers (6; 0): Analyzing LaDainian Tomlinson's ability/role in San Diego's offense is befuddling. It doesn't do him any favors that Darren Sproles is a heck of a football player.
7. Baltimore Ravens (7; 0): Which team are they? The team that's top 3 in the league in both offense and defense? Or the team that was tied with a 2-14 team at home with 3:00 left in the game? You'll find out in San Diego this week.
8. Dallas Cowboys (9; +1): Tony Romo appears happy and comfortable. It will be interesting to see if Patrick Crayton can continue to shine behind Roy Williams.
9. Tennesee Titans (8; -1): They played tough and almost won a game they weren't supposed to win. The Kerry Collins jokes need to stop. He's effective enough to be a top-half QB in this league.
10. Atlanta Falcons (10; 0): If they can get that kind of performance from their defense consistently, Atlanta will be in the NFC title race. I just don't think they can.
11. Green Bay Packers (11; 0): The Bears put up some points, but I still liked what I saw in the Packers defense. Aaron Rodgers to Greg Jennings is a beautiful thing.
12. Minnesota Vikings (16; +4): Okay, my bad. I got too focused on you-know-who. I apologize to Adrian Peterson for not respecting his preposterous abilities.
13. New Orleans Saints (17; +4): He scores 6 TD's and Drew Brees gets up to the podium and starts talking about all of their missed opportunities. This Philly game could get real interesting.
14. New York Jets (21; +7): Tied with the team below them for my biggest jump of the week. Rex Ryan is going to take this rookie coach with rookie qb thing and run like the wind with it.
15. Seattle Seahawks (22; +7): 28-0 is 28-0 no matter who you play against. Matt Hasselbeck is confirming what a few people forgot; when he has some weapons around him, he's a darn good quarterback.
16. Chicago Bears (12; -4): To still be in that Packer game considering everything in that game is remarkable. They have a real opportunity against Pittsburgh with Polamalu out.
17. San Francisco 49ers (23; +6): There aren't many teams in the NFL who are doing more with less than the 49ers. Mike Singletary gets his guys to play as hard as anyone.
18. Arizona Cardinals (13; -5): Oh, dear. Warner started to look old and their play was generally uninspired. With Seattle and San Francisco stepping up, Arizona will have to do the same if they want back in the playoffs.
19. Jacksonville Jaguars (18; -1): Nothing wrong with losing a close game to the Colts. It's games like those, though, that the Jags just never seem to be able to pull out.
20. Washington Redskins (19; -1): If the Redskins were down 4 to the Eagles with 3:00 left and the ball, would you feel confident Jason Campbell could lead them down the field? Me neither.
21. Carolina Panthers (14; -7): Ouch. If Delhomme struggles mightily again this week, we can officially start to say that one game has ruined the career of an otherwise good NFL quarterback. Not much reason for optimism around Carolina.
22. Miami Dolphins (15; -7): They probably don't deserve this drop, but I was discouraged by their game against Atlanta. Turner was ineffective, Elam missed two fgs, but the Dolphins still couldn't make things real interesting. Not good.
23. Denver Broncos (26; +3): Who wouldn't rather be lucky than good? Cincinnati's offense should be okay this year, so that was a real good sign for Denver's defense.
24. Buffalo Bills (25; +1): Oh, Buffalo. You really do find ways to lose games like none other. Well, not quite as bad as Cincinnati but still. Fred Jackson, by the way, looks terrific.
25. Oakland Raiders (27; +2): I don't believe I'm exaggerating for a moment when I say the Raiders 1) have one of the three worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, and 2) would compete with the Chargers to make the playoffs if they had even an average quarterback.
26. Houston Texans (20; -6): There is absolutely no excuse for this team not to score 20+ every single week. Disappointing doesn't even begin to describe week 1.
27. Cincinnati Bengals (24; -3): Words can't begin to cover what Bengals fans must have felt Sunday night. A bigger issue: How did their finally healthy offense only put up 7 on the Broncos?
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28; 0): A surprisingly game Bucs team did what they could against Dallas. They just ... can't do much.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (29; 0): The Chiefs took advantage of every opportunity they were given on Sunday. They will have to continue to do so to scratch out a few wins this year.
30. Cleveland Browns (30; 0): Half of me wants to scold the Browns for not being able to tackle. The other half of me wants to thank the Browns for all the good times I've had at their expense.
31. St. Louis Rams (31; 0): Simply put, they're the worst team in the league. I want to put them at 32 but ...
32. Detroit Lions (32; 0): Then I look at the stat of the week.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

NFL Power Rankings 2009: Week 1

Oh, it's that time again. POWER RANKINGS. Yes, in caps. There's a few surprised thrown in the bag here, especially when you look down at division rankings. Comments, both good and bad, are of course appreciated.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: They return basically the same team that won the Super Bowl ... and might be better. With their schedule, they have the best chance in the league to go 16-0 (but still unlikely).
2. New England Patriots: They have a few questions on the defensive side of the ball after this week, but any Tom Brady-led team will usually be in the top 3.
3. New York Giants: Don't forget how good of a season they had last year. They could have the best defense in the NFC.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Donald Brown should get the running game going again, and they should put up more points because of it.
5. Philadelphia Eagles: They could be in the running with the Patriots and Saints for the best offense in the league. A historically stout defense could be a weakness this year, though.
6. San Diego Chargers: Enough talent to be in the top 3. Will it all actually come together this year?
7. Baltimore Ravens: They don't need a huge year out of Mark Clayton/Demetrius Williams/Kelley Washington. They just need them to stretch the field.
8. Tennesee Titans: It will be hard to duplicate their success from last year with a quarterback who's only gotten older and minus their best defensive player.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo needs the playoffs this year to be taken seriously as a top-flight NFL quarterback.
10. Atlanta Falcons: Plenty to love about their offense, but their lack of defensive leadership (losing Keith Brooking and Lawyer Milloy) is troublesome.
11. Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers may have the best fantasy year of any quarterback in the league. Will the transition to 3-4 on defense work?
12. Chicago Bears: Gave up a ton, but are counting on Cutler to pay huge dividends this year. To go all the way, though, they will need a better defensive performance than last year.
13. Arizona Cardinals: I had them as the 12th best team out of 12 heading into the postseason last year. I guess I don't learn from my mistakes.
14. Carolina Panthers: Seemingly way too low for a team with a first round playoff bye last year. The NFC South is too tumultuous to think they will duplicate that success.
15. Miami Dolphins: If the Dolphins are successful this year, it will be because Pat White has revolutionized the already revolutionary Wildcat.
16. Minnesota Vikings: I don't believe in Brett Favre. At all. At least Tavaris Jackson could scramble.
17. New Orleans Saints: My pick to win the NFC South at the end of the year. There's a lot to like about their defensive improvements.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars: A common sleeper pick for the postseason this year. David Garrard is a better quarterback than he is given credit for being.
19. Washington Redskins: Optimism abounds in D.C. - again. I think nothing about their offense, but I think Brian Orakpo will be the defensive rookie of the year.
20. Houston Texans: Will this be the year? They have a young, talented front seven on defense, but the secondary could be a liability.
21. New York Jets: Rex Ryan runs a high risk, high reward defense. It works when you have two future hall of famers playing up the middle. Memo: Jenkins/Scott/Rhodes does not equal Ngata/Lewis/Reed.
22. Seattle Seahawks: I think the world of Matt Hasselbeck, and I love the Houshmandzadeh signing. The offensive line is beyond bad, though.
23. San Francisco 49ers: Talent abounds in every position except for quarterback ... the most important position.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: If Palmer is healthy, Cincy could make some noise this year. They need him upright, though, because they won't be able to run the ball.
25. Buffalo Bills: Questions abound. TO's health? New offensive coordinator? How will the holdout affect Maybin? Are they moving to Toronto?
26. Denver Broncos: Their defense didn't get much upgrading, and they downgraded significantly at quarterback.
27. Oakland Raiders: Essentially wasted 2009 and 2011 first round choices on a second round talent and a guy they should have traded a third rounder for. Thanks Oakland.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They may be able to run the ball between Cadillac, Graham and Ward ... but that's about it.
29. Kansas City Chiefs: With Cassel in, they could win a few games. Without Cassel, they may be number 32.
30. Cleveland Browns: No running game. No quarterback. Scant receivers. No defensive line. No secondary. At least they have Joshua Cribbs.
31. St. Louis Rams: The Rams - with Sam Bradford - will be a team to watch ... next year.
32. Detroit Lions: They just didn't do much to a defense that gave up 30+ points 11 times last year.

And, of course, the division rankings ...
1. NFC East: 9.00
2. AFC South: 12.50
3. AFC North: 15.50
4. AFC East: 15.75
5. NFC South: 17.25
6. NFC North: 17.75
7. AFC West: 22.25
8. NFC West: 22.50

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Post Schedule

I'm changing things up a bit this week. I was planning on doing the rest of my baseball post today, but I like my AL part too much and am dividing the one post into a separate one for each league.

So, because I obviously need to get power rankings in before the Steelers-Titans game Thursday, the schedule is as follows:

Wednesday - Power Rankings
Thursday - AL home stretch preview
Friday - NL home stretch preview

Wild Wild West - AL Edition

I talked earlier in the week about how listless the playoff races have been in baseball so far; four spots are all but clinched by the Yankees, Tigers, Phillies, and Cardinals.

That, of course, leaves two spots in each league. Here's a look at the American League.

American League

Team 1: Boston Red Sox
- Initial reaction: When Boston's playoff chances aren't 100% by this time, you have to be a little surprised. It's not exactly like they're slumping either, as they're on pace for a win total in the mid-90's. There are a lot of good teams in the American League this year.
- Why they are they here: Injuries have really hurt a pitching staff that's usually top 5 in pitching. This year, they're only 6th in the AL in ERA, 6th in BAA, and 7th in WHIP. That's average, not excellent. Their hitting has made up for it, though, landing in the top 3 in the league in most major categories.
- Will they make it? Yes. They have some tough series remaining - a Tampa team that's more than desperate to make this list, the always-strong Angels and a trip up to New York - but make up for it with enough cupcakes to finish in a wild card position.

Team 2: Texas Rangers
- Initial reaction: Texas has always been a team you want to play with when you're playing XBox. After all, winning 10-8 is always so much more fun than 4-2. Sadly, that's not practical in today's game. However, this year the Rangers appear to have the pitching to match their always potent hitting.
- Why they are here: A terrific lineup, top to bottom - their BA, HR, OPS and RBI leaders are four different guys, none named Josh Hamilton (pictured, right) - is joined by a staff ranking 4th in the AL in wins.
- Will that make it? Yes. They have six home games against the out-of-it Mariners and A's. Then they have a home series against the Angels, before going on the road against basically the same set of teams.

Team 3: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Initial reaction: Similar to the Red Sox, a team you would expect to basically be locked up by now. The Angles sport a good team every year, with good pitching, great base running, great fielding and timely hitting. This year is the same.
- Why they are here: See above. Great hitting, great base running, except this year without the fielding and the pitching - to the tune of 12th in the AL in BAA and 12th in errors.
- Will they make it: No. Yeah, I said it. 22 games left and 5.5 games in the lead, but I don't see this team in the playoffs. They're getting hot at the right time, but their schedule (at NY, at Boston) should cool them off. Not to mention, they still have seven games left against the Rangers, who they are 3-9 against.

Image Source: http://betweenthepoles.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/josh-hamilton.jpg

Monday, September 7, 2009

The Insanity of College Football

Every Saturday, the college football landscape changes dramatically and, at times, unexpectedly. This past Saturday - the first one of the season - saw National Championship contender Oklahoma essentially end its season before it even got off the ground.

The severity of Sam Bradford's shoulder injury will likely decide whether OU will be able to rebound and contend for a Big-12 championship or have to pack it in and look toward 2010. They now have one loss, and with the way the season has started, that may be all it takes for a team like OU to be knocked out of the National Championship picture.

Boise State beat 16th-ranked Oregon Thursday night, which paves the way for the Broncos to potentially go undefeated and demand a chance at being the best team in the country. They went into the weekend ranked 14th, and now may be in the top 10. If they go undefeated, OU will have to a tough time claiming they deserve to be in the final game - if they can even stay a one-loss team (and that will not be easy, even with Bradford).

Next, 20th ranked BYU just beat Oklahoma, which would likely give them the edge in any scenario where it would be down to those two teams. BYU's schedule is much more difficult that Boise State's (they play Florida State, TCU, and Utah), but if BYU were to go undefeated, they would be ahead of Oklahoma.

Then you look at the rest of the top teams - Alabama, Florida, Texas, Ohio State, USC, etc - and it's possible that all of those teams finish with no more than one loss. In fact, I think Florida will go undefeated and one of USC, Ohio State, or Texas will join them. I haven't even added in potential sleeper teams like Ole Miss, O.K. State, Penn State, LSU, or Cal. A one-loss OU team will have a tough time sticking around the top 5.

Again, this assumes OU can even stay in the picture and remain at just one loss.

And I'm going to take them out of the picture. They're now a one-loss team and I have a hard time believing that they will have a shot at the title, for the reasons stated above. There are too many good teams who will be at either one-loss or undefeated for OU to leapfrog them, especially if Bradford misses significant time, which I think he will.

But you know what the best part about all this is? I have absolutely no idea what will happen. This weekend proved what a crazy sport college football is. We had Navy being 2 yards away from overtime against Ohio State (in Columbus!). Northern Iowa, an FCS team, had two chances to kick a game-winning field goal vs. Iowa, but Iowa blocked the kick - TWICE! Matt Barkley looked impressive as USC's starter (even though it was against San Jose St.) and he may prove to be the best USC QB in a long time (yes, better than Palmer, Leinart, Sanchez, etc). College football is so unpredictable and each week produces a huge shift in the top of the polls.

I'm excited to see what will happen next and I'm excited to see what changes next weekend will bring. For all I know, Tim Tebow could tear an ACL or Matt Barkley could lead the Trojans into Columbus and tear up Ohio State. Any predictions people make about the season can go out the window in seconds. One of the two teams in most expert's National Championship game already has one loss and may have lost their quarterback for the season. What else can happen? I don't know, you don't know, no one knows. And I wouldn't want to have it any other way.

(Photo: TSN.ca/Getty images)

Most MLB Division Races Long Over

Saturday night gave me far too big of a headache to write about college football, so here's your "baseball still matters" post of the month. I recognize that this week is the commencement of the NFL season, and my wonderful power rankings will debut sometime before the Titans-Steelers game on Thursday night. That being said, any other thing I could write about the NFL will undoubtedly be covered during the first TNT broadcast of the semester on Wednesday. So, for now, baseball.

Except there's really not a lot to talk about.

The Yankees' huge signings in the offseason? They worked out. CC Sabathia? He may be the favorite for the AL Cy Young. AJ Burnett? (pictured right) Not brilliant, but 4.29 and 10-8 ain't exactly bad. Mark Teixeira? He could hit 40 home runs this year. Remember way back when when everyone was up in a tizzy because the Orioles took 2 of 3 from them to lead off the season? That was a long time ago.

The Tigers are starting to play exactly like everyone thought the Tigers would play last year. They've won six in a row and eight of their last ten. The Twins are slightly above average and won't play any better than slightly above average. They're out of it.

The Phillies won the World Series last year because of their great lineup, top to bottom. They still have a great lineup, except now they have an even better rotation. Cliff Lee is the umpteenth pitcher to make NL hitters look like AAA hitters compared to AL hitters (although he has fallen off in his past two starts).

The Cardinals? Only 11.5 games ahead in the central. Not bad. Fun fact: They have 39 road wins this season. The Pirates have less than half of that, at 18.

So that leads us to the Wild Cards and the West. You've lost your attention by now, so look for it tomorrow.

Image Source: http://blog.nj.com/yankees_main/2009/03/large_aj-burnett303.jpg