One Week Later, Does Anyone Care?

It was one week ago today that the Yankees defeated the Phillies 7-3 for their 27th world championship.

It was a fitting end for the postseason it was in: lots of hype, a bad baseball game, and then talk about that city's respective NFL team.

Who could be excited/worked up at all about this outcome? Yankee fans? "Woo hoo, we won our 27th title, and the 5th since I've been alive." I mean I'm sure it was good for a "27th heaven" facebook status, but most I talked to spent the next day complaining about how bad the Giants' defense was.

What about Philly fans? Is there some inescapable grief? No, because they won it last year and were all still too giddy about that. Philadelphians (not a word; go with it anyway) love the Phillies more than any other team. They're deservedly proud of their squad and were okay with losing in the grand finale to the best team in baseball.

... Which leads me to why nobody else was excited about this series. Besides the rest of the country having both rational and irrational hatreds toward everything sports-related in the cities of New York and Philadelphia, this series was the best team in baseball against the second best team in baseball. I know NOTHING when it comes to predicting the MLB. I'm the guy who predicted at the beginning of September that the Angels wouldn't make the playoffs. I'm pretty sure I predicted the Indians to go to the playoffs at the beginning of the season. Yet I said before the first pitch of the 2009 MLB postseason was thrown that it would come down to the Yankees beating the Phillies in 6. If I could predict it, surely most people at least could see there was a real possibility of it happening.

Last point: You can ask, "Isn't that what it's supposed to be all about? The two best teams in baseball squaring off?" The answer: sure, if you want to decide who the best team in baseball between those two is. The problem: that wasn't the case here. Every person who followed a lick of baseball the entire season knew the Yankees were the best team in baseball. They bought their way to the top better than anyone else did but still managed to play like a team. This outcome was predetermined. Throw that in with a World Series that featured a total of zero 1-run games and you're left with a city that stopped celebrating a World Championship hours after it happened and sports media that would rather talk about Eli Manning's plantar fasciitis than Hideki Matsui's clutchness.

As Much As We All Complain, This Series Should Be Good

Let's face it. If you don't love the Yankees, you hate the Yankees. You hate them because of all the money they spend. You hate them because their fans wet themselves whenever they get a two out single already up 8-1 in the 8th inning. You hate them because Derek Jeter (pictured right) is just so freaking good. You hate them because their best player is a cheater you would want on your team every day. You hate them because they represent everything wrong with baseball. You hate them because Joe Girardi is younger than some of his players. The list goes on.

Let's face it. If you don't love the Phillies, you hate them because - after all, they're from Philly. These are the worst fans in the world. THEY BOOED SANTA CLAUS, THOSE JERKS! THEY CHEERED WHEN MICHAEL IRVIN LITERALLY DIED! And even though you think the Phillies are a pretty cool team, you still have to hate them, because, after all, they are from Philadelphia.

All that aside ... if you actually call yourself a baseball fan (and even if you don't), this should be a great series. Think of the pitching match-ups. Sabbathia vs. Lee in an Indian rematch? Hamels vs. Burnett featuring the best number two pitchers in baseball? Pedro vs. Pettitte in a "I swear I'm not too old" game 3? It's great stuff. And who has the closer advantage? Seemingly Rivera, the best closer of all time, but postseason 2009 Brad Lidge is looking a lot like 2008 Brad Lidge.

Then you look at their lineups. Who do you want batting cleanup for you: A-Rod or Howard? You don't know? Yeah, me neither. I see your Teixeira over Utley batting third and raise you a Werth over Posada batting 5th.

Bottom line: I'm sticking to what I said before the postseason started: Yankees in 6. That being said, I would not be surprised for a second if this went 7, and I have the feeling this will be a MUCH better matchup than Phils-Rays last year.

3 out of 4 Division Series Wrapped Up

We thought the crazy Twins-Tigers game was going to be an omen for a great opening round of baseball playoffs.

Well, at least it's been great for the favorites' fans.

The only series that hasn't ended in a sweep is the Phillies-Rockies, who play tonight in the freezing cold of Colorado. Other than that, it's been a lot of brooms.

A lot of people thought the Cardinals were a better team than the Dodgers coming in; the Dodgers put that to rest in 3.

The Red Sox were supposed to have the Angels number, right? Surely this was going to be a great series. If anything, it was going to be a Red Sox sweep. Oops.

The only thing that's gone according to plan is the Yankees crushing the spirits - one A-Rod homer at a time - of the Twins.

Don't get me wrong, there's been at least one good game on every day of the postseason thus far. On Thursday, the Dodgers beat the Cardinals 5-3. Thursday saw the Rockies pulling off the upset in Philadelphia 5-4 and the most memorable play of the postseason so far in Matt Holliday's error (brutal still image sequence here). The play extended the game and gave the Dodgers the opportunity to go up 2 games to 0. Friday had the first extra inning game of the series, culminated by Mark Teixeira's walk-off (pictured right) for the Bombers. Saturday we all watched in disbelief as the Dodgers just pounded the Cardinals in St. Louis to complete the sweep. And, finally, the Yanks were just better than Minnesota in their quest to sweep the Twins at the Metrodome.

So while there have been good games, there's only been one (and we don't know how that will end up) good series. One has to assume the championship series will be different. Yanks-Angels especially should be great drama.

Wild Wild West - AL Edition

I talked earlier in the week about how listless the playoff races have been in baseball so far; four spots are all but clinched by the Yankees, Tigers, Phillies, and Cardinals.

That, of course, leaves two spots in each league. Here's a look at the American League.

American League

Team 1: Boston Red Sox

- Initial reaction: When Boston's playoff chances aren't 100% by this time, you have to be a little surprised. It's not exactly like they're slumping either, as they're on pace for a win total in the mid-90's. There are a lot of good teams in the American League this year.

- Why they are they here: Injuries have really hurt a pitching staff that's usually top 5 in pitching. This year, they're only 6th in the AL in ERA, 6th in BAA, and 7th in WHIP. That's average, not excellent. Their hitting has made up for it, though, landing in the top 3 in the league in most major categories.

- Will they make it? Yes. They have some tough series remaining - a Tampa team that's more than desperate to make this list, the always-strong Angels and a trip up to New York - but make up for it with enough cupcakes to finish in a wild card position.

Team 2: Texas Rangers

- Initial reaction: Texas has always been a team you want to play with when you're playing XBox. After all, winning 10-8 is always so much more fun than 4-2. Sadly, that's not practical in today's game. However, this year the Rangers appear to have the pitching to match their always potent hitting.

- Why they are here: A terrific lineup, top to bottom - their BA, HR, OPS and RBI leaders are four different guys, none named Josh Hamilton (pictured, right) - is joined by a staff ranking 4th in the AL in wins.

- Will that make it? Yes. They have six home games against the out-of-it Mariners and A's. Then they have a home series against the Angels, before going on the road against basically the same set of teams.

Team 3: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

- Initial reaction: Similar to the Red Sox, a team you would expect to basically be locked up by now. The Angles sport a good team every year, with good pitching, great base running, great fielding and timely hitting. This year is the same.

- Why they are here: See above. Great hitting, great base running, except this year without the fielding and the pitching - to the tune of 12th in the AL in BAA and 12th in errors.

- Will they make it: No. Yeah, I said it. 22 games left and 5.5 games in the lead, but I don't see this team in the playoffs. They're getting hot at the right time, but their schedule (at NY, at Boston) should cool them off. Not to mention, they still have seven games left against the Rangers, who they are 3-9 against.

Image Source: http://betweenthepoles.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/josh-hamilton.jpg

Most MLB Division Races Long Over

Saturday night gave me far too big of a headache to write about college football, so here's your "baseball still matters" post of the month. I recognize that this week is the commencement of the NFL season, and my wonderful power rankings will debut sometime before the Titans-Steelers game on Thursday night. That being said, any other thing I could write about the NFL will undoubtedly be covered during the first TNT broadcast of the semester on Wednesday. So, for now, baseball.

Except there's really not a lot to talk about.

The Yankees' huge signings in the offseason? They worked out. CC Sabathia? He may be the favorite for the AL Cy Young. AJ Burnett? (pictured right) Not brilliant, but 4.29 and 10-8 ain't exactly bad. Mark Teixeira? He could hit 40 home runs this year. Remember way back when when everyone was up in a tizzy because the Orioles took 2 of 3 from them to lead off the season? That was a long time ago.

The Tigers are starting to play exactly like everyone thought the Tigers would play last year. They've won six in a row and eight of their last ten. The Twins are slightly above average and won't play any better than slightly above average. They're out of it.

The Phillies won the World Series last year because of their great lineup, top to bottom. They still have a great lineup, except now they have an even better rotation. Cliff Lee is the umpteenth pitcher to make NL hitters look like AAA hitters compared to AL hitters (although he has fallen off in his past two starts).

The Cardinals? Only 11.5 games ahead in the central. Not bad. Fun fact: They have 39 road wins this season. The Pirates have less than half of that, at 18.

So that leads us to the Wild Cards and the West. You've lost your attention by now, so look for it tomorrow.

Image Source: http://blog.nj.com/yankees_main/2009/03/large_aj-burnett303.jpg

Since We've Been Gone ...

You know, summer is one of those times of year that's always so conflicting. School's out; yay! Baseball season is being dominated by the Yankees and Red Sox; boo! We're going to the beach; yay! Your sole source of NFL news is about your team's seventh string running back; boo! ... And so it goes. This summer, however, has been quite an exciting one for the sports world. Here's a brief recap of what you've missed if you haven't seen a minute of ESPN since school ended.

Brett Favre announced he was coming back. But then everyone thought he was going to retire because of his arm. But then he made it clear he was coming back ... and then announced he was retiring for good. Finally, it's clear he's coming back for good (or at least until his arm gives way in week 6). The winners during this situation: the 13 teams on the Vikings' schedule. Brett Favre (pictured, left) is a joke. He can't throw the ball accurate more than 30 yards in the air,

and at this stage in his life, makes poorer decisions than ever. The losers during this situation? Everyone else. The Vikings, for having to put up with this distraction all summer. The fans, who used to be very pro-Favre around America, and now hate the guy. Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson. One of those guys thought he was going to be the starting quarterback of a Super Bowl contending team this fall. That same guy is about to be a third stringer. Brad Childress, perhaps the biggest goat of all, who has admitted that he will sell his soul to the devil and abandon his team for a risky player. And, of course Favre. Brett, you're still going to the hall of fame; I just don't know whos going to be there to support you.

Elsewhere in the NFL, draft picks are showing why their teams drafted them. Except Michael Crabtree, because he thinks he deserves top three, not top ten, money because he feels he was a top three, not top ten, player. Oh, and Andre Smith, because who honestly thought the Bengals' organization could do anything right? Oh, and Tyson Jackson, because people are still wondering why the hell the Chiefs took him.

In the NBA, Shaq and LeBron are now together ... And every single fair-weather NBA fan in the entire world has become a Cavs fan, because you have no sense of humor at all if you dislike both of those players. I'm proud to say one of the very few predictions I got right last year was predicting LA would go all the way and win the NBA championship, and I made that prediction because of how much better LA was inside than Cleveland. Of course, I didn't realize that the Magic were that much better inside than Cleveland, too. If the big Shaqtus (pictured, right) has anything left in the tank, this should put Cleveland over the hump.

Of course, baseball is still in progress, and things are starting to get good, so there will be more on that soon. Maryland football is about to start up their regular season, and even though they're not supposed to be good, there will be more on that soon, too. And Maryland basketball is still months away, but they're supposed to be really good, so it's never too soon to start thinking about them either.

Really Manny? Really?

I'm going to keep this short, because, frankly, there's not much information out about it yet. All we know so far is that Manny Ramirez (pictured left after hitting his 500th home run) has been suspended for 50 games by MLB for violating the league's drug policy. In a recently released statement from Ramirez, he claims that the drug in question was prescribed to him by a doctor for a personal health issue. Although not a steroid, the drug was banned by Major League Baseball.

This makes me sad. I had a post a while back about how bad A-Rod's steroid use was for the game of baseball. This is just another blow. It may end up being just the one isolated incident, taking the wrong drug for the right reasons, and maybe that will blow over. But do you actually have any faith that that's what it is? In any case, his name is no longer clean. Which great hitters in baseball still are? Albert Pujols? Ryan Howard? I guess there are still a good handful, but it's just sad to see one of the great hitters in baseball history veer off the straight and narrow. 

Don't get me wrong. I think Manny is a goon. I definitely don't think he's a saint, and I think that what he did with Boston last year was just plain wrong. I'm just saying for the game in general, it hurts. 

(Photo Credit: www.babble.com)

Surprises Abound to Start Season

This - other than the playoffs - is really when MLB is exciting. At least it is to me, as an Orioles fan, and I'm sure fans of Toronto, Kansas City, Seattle, Florida and San Diego would agree with me. It's early in the season when the teams playing with less payroll and talent than the New York's and Boston's of the world have a chance to get a fast start. They're playing on adrenaline and hustle and grittiness, and they scrap out wins. The problem with baseball is that it's a marathon. A ridiculously long marathon. So, by September, C.C. Sabathia will have learned exactly how to get each and every Orioles batter out, and he will have perfected the stuff he needs to do that. Meanwhile, When Koji Uehara is pitching to Mark Teixeira, Uehara will know how to get Teixeira out, but Teixeira will already know what Uehara is going to do, and will best him. It's a simple matter of talent. 

But maybe I'm just cynical. 

That's really all I had for this one, but I would never exit without a few quick hits to catch people up in case you've been too busy mourning the end of the NCAA tournament/anticipating the NFL draft. 

So, the Nationals still haven't won a game.  They're 26th in the majors in runs scored, 21st in hits and 27th in home runs. They're 29th in ERA, 29th in strikeouts and 29th in batting average against. Oh, by the way, they're 27th in errors and 29th in field percentage. Not being good at anything generally translates into 0-7. Their lone bright spot (Cristian Guzman, hitting a ridiculous .515 to start the season) has a hurt hamstring. It's not looking likely that they will finish anywhere but last in the NL East, especially because ...

The Marlins are playing the best baseball in the league right now. You liked that segue, didn't you? Anyway, the Marlins are 7-1, and even though they're playing in a division with the defending World Series champs, the new-bullpened Mets and the fellow upstart Braves, the Marlins feel they can hang around until the end. Josh Johnson had two brilliant starts to lead off the season (he's 2-0 with 15.2 IP, 15 SO, and an ERA of 0.57). The bullpen has been solid too; the most runs they've given up in a game this year is six. Six, by the way, is less than the average runs given up by the Orioles this year. Oh, hey! Speaking of the Orioles ...

Wow, the Orioles can hit. And wow, the Orioles can not pitch. Make no mistake about it, Baltimore fans see the light at the end of the tunnel - apparently their pitching prospects in the minor leagues are second to none. They will be fixtures for next year, though. This year, the Orioles will have to suffer through watching a rotation consisting of an average number one starter (Jeremy Guthrie), a number two starter who should be a number three (Koji Uehara), a number three starter who should be a number five (Mark Hendrickson), and two other starters who have no business being on a major league roster (Alfredo Simon and Adam Eaton). That being said, the Orioles are still 6-3 because they have arguably the best 1-2-3 hitting trio in baseball. Brian Roberts is perenially underrated. Adam Jones (pictured, right) is one of the best young talents in baseball, and you can book Nick Markakis before the season even begins to hit .300 with 20 HR and 90 RBI. Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora can both knock in runners, and Luke Scott isn't a bum himself. Throw Matt Weiters into the mix come June, and the O's will continue to be one of the better offensive teams in the majors. In the end, though, asking the bullpen to give them at least five innings every game won't be enough for this season. 

Keeping it in the east, the Blue Jays are hitting a lot better than we anticipated. Everyone knew they could pitch. And pitch they've been doing well. The magic number early this season for the Blue Jays has been five; they've yet to lose a game when they scored at least five runs. Thankfully for Toronto, they've scored at least five runs in seven of their ten games. Led by the rejuvenated Scott Rolen (no, I didn't know he was still around, either), Toronto is leading the American League in batting average and is second in runs scored. I don't know that they can hit this well for the entire year, but I do think they can pitch this well. Toronto has a far better chance to be around near the top of the AL East come September than the O's do. 

That will wrap this one up. Sorry to show my ESPN-like east coast bias, I'll try to do better next time. The college basketball late signing period started yesterday, so look for updates on that, and of course the NFL draft is a mere nine days away. Keep checking back here for info on all that. 

(Photo Credit: AP)

Thoughts on the First Few Days of the New Season

The first few days of the 2009 MLB season is in the books, and it's been an interesting few days indeed. A lot has already happened, but, obviously, it's hard to tell much of anything when most teams have still only played one game. You wouldn't judge a football team for the season six minutes into the first quarter, would you? Didn't think so. But still ...

I don't understand what the big deal about booing Mark Teixeira is. Peter Gammons was all sorts of upset about it on ESPN Monday night, and it was the subject of multiple articles in newspapers around the country (Two are here and here. Read the comments on the first if you like to hate on either Yankees or Orioles fans.). "Scum!" "Sellout!" "Corporate whore!" yell angry Baltimore fans. "I like money" whimpers a defeated Teixeira back. Look, I understand Teixeira's decision. To sign with the Orioles, he was going to give up playing for a bona fide contender, as well as sacrificing over $4 mil a year for seven years. 

But that being said, if you're not an Oriole fan, put yourself in one's shoes. The team you support has a proud history, but for the past ten years, has been on Royals-Pirates level. Every year you have to play the Yankees for 19 games, and every year you lose most of them. When you play the Yankees in Baltimore, there's usually about 75% Yankees fans in the crowd. But it's opening day. You saw the Rays go from last to first last year, why not you this year? There's a renewed interest in the team from the exciting young hitters they have, and the exciting young pitchers that probably won't appear until August or September. There's reason - albeit very little - for optimism. And up first is the hometown guy who spurned your team's offer to play for the most hated of all teams. If I were there, I would have booed him until I was hoarse, too. ESPN needs to get over itself. 

Now that that rant is over ... Johan Santana (pictured, right) is going to win a lot of games this year. Not that that's unusual, but when I say a lot, I mean 20+. If he gets decent run support and is throwing his stuff at an average level for him, the Mets are going to be virtually unbeatable. Putz in the 8th and K-Rod in the 9th is an absolutely nasty back end. It won't matter unless starts 2-5 of the Mets rotation step up, but you can virtually pencil in a "W" every time Santana takes the mound. 

Keeping it in the NL East, the Braves should take a lot more out of beating the Phillies 8-1 in the first two games than the Phillies should. The Braves want to believe they're a contender in the NL East this year, and theres no better way to bolster their confidence than by running over the defending champs in the first two games, holding that vaunted lineup to only one run in 18 innings. The Phillies and their fans have no reason to fret, though. They know they're going to hit this year; there's too much talent there to deny that. The starting pitching has been poor, but the bullpen has pitched admirably. It would have been nice to keep the momentum from last October going, but it's no reason for alarm. 

And just a few quick hits ...

Ouch, Tyler. The Nats begin the season at 0-3, losing all three games to the Marlins, the only team in the division they had a chance to finish above. 

Ken Griffey, Jr., in a Mariners uniform again, is awesome. How could his home run not remind you of the old days? It's good for Griffey, good for the M's, and good for baseball. 

(Photo Credit: AP)

New Season, Same Old Nats

I know it's been only two games, but the games have been such laughingstocks that I have to make a ranting post about it.

First, Manny Acta's job as manager is quickly becoming less and less stable. He plays obvious favorites, none more obvious than his handling of the outfield. He has to put Adam Dunn in left field, but he announced Milledge as the center fielder before spring training and named him leadoff hitter a mere week or so in. His stats give no reason to bat him leadoff, but Acta likes Milledge and could use the "he hit well last year" excuse to keep him there, despite the fact that Elijah Dukes was a little better and Josh Willingham was much better. Acta said Dukes is on the bench because of poor ST stats, well Manny, then why isn't the outfield Dunn-Kearns-Willingham, the three players who had the best spring? This only adds to the fact that Acta refuses to show any emotion in the dugout and has never called out his players for terrible performances.

Also, I find it baffling that Willingham can have a solid year last year - BETTER than Milledge's year - but cannot crack our outfield. Amazing. Oh, and he hasn't gotten an AB in two games, despite Acta assuring everyone that they would split at bats. Acta wants to pinch hit third catcher Josh Bard, so that the front office can decide if he's more worthy than Wil Nieves as backup. It's sickening.

Acta also demands that Ryan Zimmerman hit 3rd, which is completely ridiculous. He is far from a number 3 hitter and has never been comfortable there. They SHOULD put someone like Adam Dunn there. Oh, and Lastings Milledge at leadoff is a complete failure. 0/8 so far this year with 4 strikeouts. Guzman hit over .300 last year leading off, WHY CHANGE IT? Nick Johnson would be a perfect #2 hitter but Acta refuses to change it up. The stubborness is absurd and the favortism is prevalent. I'd be shocked if Milledge moves from leadoff before the middle of May. The team has shown a pattern of stubborness with the lineup, and it has hurt their production.

Second, the pitching staff is a joke. John Lannan, the supposed ace, got absolutely rocked yesterday. He was terrible. I know Lannan is better and the nerves could have gotten to him, so I'm not concerned about him. What I am concerned about is the bullpen and the rest of the rotation. Scott Olsen, tonight's starter, was worse than Lannan. He never hit 90 on his fastball and had no control. He was awful. It was embarassing to watch the Marlins tee off on yet another Nationals starter. Lannan and Olsen combined for 6 innings and 14 runs. That's solid production from your starters! After Olsen is Daniel Cabrera, who has never been a consistent starter for the Orioles and was far from good in spring training. Acta loves Cabrera so if he struggles, don't expect him to be demoted or released anytime soon. Behind Cabrera is rookie Shairon Martis, and you never know what you'll get from a rookie. Top prospect Jordan Zimmermann is the number five starter, but he is also a rookie - who knows what he'll be able to do.

The bullpen was terrible yesterday but was more stable Tuesday. Julian Tavarez was bad Monday but was much better Tuesday so I won't complain about him. Will Ledezma was awful on Monday and has a track record of being terrible in major league action, despite good spring training numbers. It does not look good for the Nats' bullpen this year. I'm honestly scared thinking about how many runs they will give up.


It's April 7th, and I'm already wondering if the Nats can win 50 games this year. All of my optimism is completely destroyed, and it's a depressing feeling to know your team could be out of contention by May 1st.

2009 MLB Preview

The first official pitch of the 2009 MLB season will be thrown tonight in Philadelphia as the Braves take on the World Series Champions of 2008. Will the Phillies repeat? I don't think so. Take a look at my projected standings for the 2009 season:

National League

East
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
Florida Marlins

Central
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros

West
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres

Wild Card: Cardinals

American League

East
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles

Central
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians

West
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland A's
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners

Wild Card: Yankees

On Monday, Tony and I will go through the divisions in our full MLB season preview. I'll go more in-depth with my standings predictions and we'll both offer our predictions for the playoffs and World Series. Tune in!

Nationals Finalize 25-man roster

My starting rotation preview is below, so just scroll down to take a look. One player in the rotation will not be listed on the 25-man roster to start the season (Jordan Zimmermann) because of free agency/arbitration reasons. The Nationals will have to send someone down (or cut someone) on April 19th, Zimmermann's first start. The roster is below, or found here:

Pitching Rotation
LHP John Lannan
LHP Scott Olsen
RHP Daniel Cabrera
RHP Shairon Martis

Infielders
Ronnie Belliard
Alberto Gonzalez
Cristian Guzman
Willie Harris
Nick Johnson
Ryan Zimmerman

Bullpen
LHP Joe Beimel
RHP Joel Hanrahan
LHP Mike Hinckley
LHP Wil Ledezma
RHP Saul Rivera
RHP Steven Shell
RHP Julian Tavarez

Outfielders
Elijah Dukes
Adam Dunn
Austin Kearns
Lastings Milledge
Josh Willingham

Catchers
Josh Bard
Jesus Flores
Wil Nieves

On the 19th, either Bard or Nieves will be sent down to make room for Zimmermann. When Anderson Hernandez (the projected starting second baseman) comes back in a week, expect Alberto Gonzalez to be sent down.

2009 Washington Nationals Preview: Rotation

Sorry for not putting this up on Thursday - 2 exams and a cold really hampered me this week. Now I'm feeling better and have some free time to go a good preview of the Nationals' starting rotation.

The opening day starter will be 25-year old John Lannan, who was the ace of the staff last year (if you could call him that). His sub-.500 record (9-15) does not indicate how well he pitched; he finished with a 3.91 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .252 batting average. He was consistent despite receiving no run support from the offense. This spring, Lannan has been fantastic. Prior to his final start, he had not given up more than 2 runs in a start. His ERA finished at 3.97 as he prepares to take on the Marlins on Monday. Lannan is the team's most reliable pitcher despite his age and inexperience, and has proven to be durable. I think Lannan's 2009 campaign will feature at least one injury, if for no other reason than he's due for one. He's tough and talented, and I think he will have a great year. I envision a 12-7 kind of record with a mid-3 ERA.

Following Lannan will be offseason acquisition Scott Olsen, the former Marlins pitcher. Olsen had a respectable season in 2008, finishing with an 8-11 record and a 4.20 ERA. The team was hoping he could stabilize the rotation, but this spring he has been very hittable, giving up 40 hits in 29.2 innings. His velocity is down and he is certainly struggling. Questions about his chain cigarette smoking have come up among fans and if he is struggling early on it will really put a strain on the rotation. Hopefully he can get it together by his first start. I think he will be average this season, probably a below .500 record and around a 5 ERA. The velocity drop worries me.

It doesn't get much better after Olsen. Free agent signing Daniel Cabrera has a 6.39 spring ERA and has overall not been impressive. He hasn't had an ERA lower than 5 in two years and has never had a sub-4 ERA. His strikeout numbers are down and his walks are still up. He is wild, unpredictable, and inconsistent. This spring he has not been good in any of his starts, except for a 5-inning, 2 run start vs. a minor league team. I honestly believe Cabrera will be out of the rotation by June, if not sooner. I don't see pitching coach Randy St. Claire becoming a miracle-worker with this lost cause. I predict a 5+ ERA and eventually he is cut or designated for assignment. He could be moved to the bullpen, but I think that experiment will not result in any great turnaround.

The number four starter may be better than Olsen and Cabrera. It is young Shairon Martis (pictured, right), who was called up in September last season and pitched in five games (four starts), finishing with a 5.66 ERA. The ERA is deceiving, though, because one poor start skewed it. He also had 23 strikeouts in 20 innings. This spring, he has a 2.31 ERA and his velocity has jumped up into the mid-90s. The young 22-year old will probably have an up-and-down year, but the team will rely on him to make lots of starts. I see around a 4.5 ERA for Martis in his rookie year.

The Nationals' fifth starter may end up being the best on the rotation. Jordan Zimmermann will start the season in AAA until April 19th for arbitration reasons. He has had the best spring of any Nationals pitcher, and it isn't even close. He had one poor start - when he had the flu - that ballooned his ERA to 3.14, but for the most part was electric. He had 20 strikeouts and only 2 walks, and I believe all of the runs he gave up came in one start (5 ER). His WHIP was barely above 1, contiuing his dominance from last year's minor leagues, when he shot through the leagues. I expect Zimmermann to be real good this season and compete for the rookie of the year award. He has ace-worthy stuff and great makeup.

The players who will be called up for injuries will include Collin Balester, Tyler Clippard, Kip Wells, Josh Towers, Garrett Mock, Gustavo Chacin, Craig Stanmen and possibly Ross Detwiler (who will need to pitch great to start the season). The rotation is not very deep and if injuries take Lannan or Zimmermann out the Nationals are in trouble. It could be one of the worst in baseball.

Sunday I'll post my division-by-division projected standings!

2009 Washington Nationals Preview: Bullpen

This year's bullpen will no doubt be a large question mark for the Nationals. Joel Hanrahan, the current closer, had an up-and-down 2008 after replacing Jon Rauch (who was traded to Arizona). His ERA was relatively high for a closer - 3.95 - and he had 4 blown saves in 13 save opportunities. The one promising stat for Hanrahan is his strikeout numbers; in 2008, he had 93 strikeouts in 84.1 innings. He is far from a sure thing at closer, but if he can work on his control, he could be a reliable closer. Hanrahan pitched for team USA in the World Baseball Classic and has only pitched 4 innings for the Nationals this spring (giving up 2 ER). I look for him to stay the closer all season, picking up 25-30 saves in the process.

Setting up Hanrahan will be new acquistion Joe Beimel. He spent 2008 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 2.02 ERA in 71 games. He's a veteran lefty, something that last year's bullpen lacked. He's one of the few pitchers in this group that has a track record of being good. I don't expect Beimel to be the savior of this bullpen, but I think he'll be reliable, something I can't say about most of the pitchers on the staff.

The 7th-inning man will be last year's set up man, Saul Rivera. Rivera has arguably been the Nationals' most consistent reliever since his arrival in 2006, never posing an ERA more than 4. Last year opponents hit .277 off of him - up from .255 in 2007 - but he managed to keep runs off the board and had a respectable 3.96. On a good team, Rivera is a good middle-relief man. On a team like the Nationals, he is their 2nd-best reliever and 7th-inning man. Rivera has shown the ability to pitch lots of innings for a reliever - 93 in 2007 and 84 in 2008 - and is consistent. I expect a sub-4 ERA in 2009 and probably around 75 innings.

Now, to the middle relief. Here is where the question marks begin. First, I'll talk about Steven Shell. Before last season, Shell was an unknown, but he pitched wonderfully down the stretch, posting a 2.16 ERA in 50 innings last year. His WHIP (1.08) was fantastic and he nearly had a strikeout per innings (41 K in 50 IP). It's hard to guage how Shell will do this year because there have been numerous one-year wonders, but to start the season Shell will be in the bullpen. I think his ERA will go up and he'll finish with a mid-3 ERA.

Former starter Jason Bergmann has made his case for a bullpen spot this spring, failing to give up a run in 11 innings of work so far. Bergmann is the definition of an enigma, pitching like an ace one day and a minor leaguer the next. The switch to the bullpen could be a good thing for Bergmann, who seems to have adjusted well. He will most likely be the swingman and could even see a couple starts.

There is a heated competition for the second lefty spot in the bullpen (after Beimel) going on between Mike Hinckley and Will Ledezma. Hinckley was fantastic at the tail end of 2008, pitching 14 shutout innings and a 0.80 WHIP. He has a struggled this spring, posting a 6.52 ERA, and that could mean he will be sent to AAA in favor of Ledezma, a free agent signing who has a 1.69 ERA in 10 innings pitched. I think the team starts with Ledezma in the bullpen, but Hinckley will be see lots of innings this year, because injuries are inevitable.

The last bullpen spot is either going to Jesus Colome or Garrett Mock. Colome has a 0.90 ERA this spring and pitched well in the 2nd half of 2008, but he may be too inconsistent for the team to keep him. Mock, on the other hand, started for the Nationals in 2008 before switching to the bullpen. He had a 4.17 ERA last year and has a 4.22 spring ERA, but the team likes his makeup and his high strikeout numbers. I like his ability as a pitcher and think the team will keep him in the bullpen to start the season.

That makes the opening day bullpen look like this:

CL - Hanrahan
SU - Beimel
MR- Rivera
MR- Shell
MR - Bergmann
MR - Ledezma
MR - Mock


Tomorrow I'll talk about the rotation, and on Sunday I'll make my record prediction. (photo: USA Today)

Washington Nationals 2009 Preview: Infield

With all the injuries the Nationals faced in 2008, their infield was a rotating door at all but one position: shortstop. Cristian Guzman had his best year as a National, hitting .316 with 9 home runs and 55 RBIs. He was a model for consistently, hitting .290 or above in every month except for July, in which he hit .250.

Guzman will be the Nationals' 2009 opening day shortstop and should have another solid year. He won't be batting leadoff (Milledge will for the beginning of the season), but will slide to the 2-hole instead. That shouldn't matter much for Guzman, because he hit .311 from there in 2008. He's been a good hitter ever since his laser-eye correction surgery after the 2005 season.

Next to Guzman will be the face of the franchise, Ryan Zimmerman, at third base. Zimmerman was injured for a solid portion of 2008 and only played in 106 games, down from all 162 in 2007. He came on strong at the end and finished with a .283/14/51 line. His defense is still spectacular and should continue to improve, but he needs to work on his discipline and needs to hit for more power. This year, he has support around him, mostly in the form of Adam Dunn, who will give him some protection. Zimmerman should see more pitches to hit but also needs to remember to be patient, because he has a legitimate power threat behind him who can drive him in with one swing. I look for a .285/25/95 kind of season from him, and possibly a gold glove.

At second base, Anderson Hernandez was slated to be the starter before his hamstring injury. It's unsure if he'll be ready for opening day, but regardless, he's the second basemen the team will be counting on for the future. The team traded reliever Luis Ayala for him last season, and Hernandez took full advantage: he hit .333 with 17 RBIs and a 10/8 K/BB ratio in 28 games. He's never had a chance to break the Mets' lineup but now has his chance in Washington. His defense is way above average, and I think he can have a real good year and cement himself as the team's starting second basemen. Behind him is Ronnie Belliard, who had a solid year as a spot starter all over the infield. Belliard's a good bench player because of his power and versatility. If Hernandez cannot go on April 6th, I expect Belliard to start in his place. Willie Harris could also start, so he's a possiblity as well.

First base is the most interesting position on the infield. The oft-injured Nick Johnson will be the opening-day starter, and will be a big boost to the lineup. He has a wonderful batting eye and will draw walks like a fiend. The problem is that he's always injured. I expect him to miss significant time again, which would mean Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham would split time in left field and first base. Neither can match Johnson's defense, especially Dunn. If Johnson can stay healthy, though, they could swing him for a solid prospect at the deadline (if they are out of contention).

Behind the plate will be young Jesus Flores. He was inconsistent last season and got worse as the year went on. He started off fantastic, but struggled and failed to draw many walks to go along with a high strikeout rate. He's still young and has potential, but his ceiling is getting lower and lower with each stretch of batting problems. Luckily his defense is good and pitchers love working with him. I think he'll be pretty good this year, possibly something like .260/15/80. But if he struggles, the Nationals may have to look to prospects Luke Montz and Adrian Nieto as other possible long-term catchers.

On Wednesday I'll go over the bullpen for the Nationals, and on Thursday I'll talk about the rotation. Those two will be the team's weakness. Sunday I will predict a record for the team and division finish. Stay tuned!

Washington Nationals 2009 Preview: Outfield

Well, Opening Day is in just a week away, so I'm going to start with my 2009 Washington Nationals preview. My first post will be on the outfield, which is the most interesting part of the team going into the season.

The Opening Day roster will have the following players who play outfield: Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Elijah Dukes, Adam Dunn, Willie Harris (though he will play more 2nd base) and Josh Willingham.

Left field will have Adam Dunn as its primary starter. Dunn, who signed just before spring training, has hit 40 home runs in 5 consecutive seasons. He will add a big-time home run threat that the lineup has lacked since 2006, when the team had Alfonso Soriano in left. Dunn may strike out a lot and play poor defense, but he is just about a lock for 40 home runs (barring injury) and will draw tons of walks. Seeing him drive balls into the right field seats will be a great sight. There isn't much to say about Dunn; he's been remarkably consistent

Playing center field will be Lastings Milledge, who will also bat leadoff. Milledge had an inconsistent 2008 but hit .299 after the all-star break and hit .336 with 6 home runs in August. He was hurt for part of the year and hit cleanup when the roster was decimated with injuries. He actually hit over .300 at the 4 spot, but luckily the lineup will be much deeper and he won't be hitting there anymore. Now he is at leadoff, which was an interesting decision by manager Manny Acta. Milledge doesn't draw many walks, but has improved his discipline and is a potential 25/25, which is rare at a leadoff spot. Milledge can hit for power but has had a terrible spring. It will be interesting to see how he does to start the season and how long Acta will keep Milledge at leadoff if he struggles.

Right field is by far the most competitive. The favorite is Elijah Dukes, who had a rough start to 2008 but finished strong and could very well end up being a complete, 5-tool player. Hard to imagine the Nationals got him for a pitcher who will most likely never see the majors. I slot Dukes in at RF to start the season, with Austin Kearns getting one start a week. Kearns was terrible in 2008, but you could attribute that to injury; personally, I think he's just a mediocre hitter but a solid defender. Kearns is an expensive fourth outfielder but he will be on the roster unless the team can swing him in a trade (if he plays well, a team could use him in July). Former Marlin Josh Willingham will also be backing up Dukes (and Dunn) and should be solid off the bench. He will get some starts in both left and right and could see some time at first base as well.

Manager Manny Acta has some juggling to do, and a lot will depend on the health of first baseman Nick Johnson. If Nick gets hurt - and history says he will - then Dunn and Willingham will help out at first, giving everyone more playing time. For the first time in a while, the Nationals have actual depth. Willingham could start on a lot of teams. Having him and Kearns off the bench will be a huge boost.

Look for more previews as the week goes by, and eventually I'll give my prediction for the 2009 Nationals season, and also look for some MLB talk on the show, maybe even tomorrow.

Alex Rodriguez Ruined Baseball's One Hope

Let me preface this post by saying that I'm a disenchanted baseball fan, the kind of fan that baseball once had and that baseball has been needing to come back to the game.

The discovery that Alex Rodriguez (pictured, left) took steroids from 2001 to 2003 will in all likelihood not hurt baseball's attendance this year. There are thousands of die-hard Philadelphia, Anaheim, Boston, and Chicago fans that could not care less that A-Rod is now A-Fraud. (Sorry, I like that one and couldn't resist.) 

What about those malcontented with the sport, though? This works on both sides of the spectrum. On one side, you have the people like me, who, perhaps thinking that the sport was cleaned up after the Mitchell Report, were gradually beginning to come back, and even watched the World Series last year. On the other side, you have the baseball purists, not necessarily fans of a given team, but fans of baseball. I'm talking about the old-timers. The game is as foreign to them as the substances entering the 104 players about to be named in the SI report. They don't want to see cheaters either. 

Baseball just lost both of these types of fans. Forgive all the people like me who have a problem with a sport whose top two home run hitters of all time (just going out on a wide, wide limb and assuming A-Rod becomes number one) have both been accused of becoming as good as they have become by cheating. Oh, and by the way, this is neither here nor there, but I also have a problem with a sport who doesn't accept their career hits leader into the Hall of Fame. 

Baseball just lost both of those types of fans because casual fans everywhere just lost hope in the fact that pure talent alone can get you anywhere in this sport. The next in line that could potentially become the home run king is Ryan Howard, who you can tell is clean just by looking at him. He's been hurt too often in his career, though. 

It's just sad because of what a positive step last season was. The Red Sox weren't back in the series. Instead, it was the worst franchise of the past ten years against the team whose franchise had lost more games than anyone had in any sport. It showed there was some parity in the baseball. Underdogs could rise up, something a lot of people did not think could happen. Also, once the season started, you barely heard anything about the Mitchell Report or steroids. 

I could be completely wrong, and everyone forgives A-Rod, gets tired of talking about steroids, and life goes on like nothing ever happened. I don't think I am, though. I think baseball just lost its one immediate chance to forget about Barry Bonds. 

Looking Back

With so many sports going on at once, how can you keep track of them all? You don't have to, but I will. Every Monday I will look back and hit briefly upon the 5 story lines that stuck out from the previous weekend.

1. The Big 12 officially has the depth to compete with the SEC as college football's best conference. What a huge Saturday, and nobody made more noise than these two conferences. To say that another conference is even close is absolutely absurd. What we are witnessing happen is teams beating each other up in conference play. This will lead to teams getting worse bowl games than they deserve, which will lead to the Maryland's of the world being absolutely torched.

Consider:

Texas is now the number one team in the country after beating Oklahoma, but if you don't think Oklahoma is still a top 5 team, you didn't watch that game.

Kansas looked dominant. They're 16 and should be higher.

Oklahoma St. is undefeated. It really wasn't that huge of an upset over Missouri.

2. Wake Forest is the best team in the ACC. Which means that Maryland will probably beat them Saturday. If Maryland does, the Coastal is there for the taking, because the next three best teams (VT, GT, and UNC) are all in the Atlantic.

3. The MLB playoffs are fun again. After some boring divisional series, the championships series are already heating up. Tampa Bay proved their mettle - again - by outlasting the Sox in game 2 after being blanked by Dice-K in game 1. And the Dodgers certainly made things interesting last night in their beat-down of the Phillies, especially Hiroki Kuroda, who threw the ball on a line at Shane Victorino's head.

I love the Dodgers player, who, after the game said: "It wasn't at his head, it was over his head."

Yea, he ducked.

4. Contender or Pretender? 

Contender: Colts, Jags, Chargers, Bucs, Cardinals

Pretender: Pats, Dolphins, Ravens

5. Matt Ryan is already better than a lot of starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Did you see that throw he made with 6 seconds left to put the team in field goal range? Terrific throw. Every time I see a Falcons highlight, it's Matt Ryan heaving the ball 40 yards downfield right on the money. 

Meanwhile, Joe Flacco is playing like ... a rookie from Delaware who should be the third string quarterback on his team this year but, due to a couple injuries, is forced to start behind a young offensive line and with a new head coach.

He will get better, but it may not be this year. 

What a great night

As Scott Van Pelt put it ever so simply, "What a great night in sports." It really was. Of course, the marquee story is USC - who has looked absolutely unbeatable thus far - losing at Oregon State. Yes, the same Oregon State that played Maryland in a bowl game last year. All you can really say about this is going back to conference rivalries. Oregon State plays USC almost every year. They know they can play with them. It's a confidence thing that rivalries give you. USC is still the best team in the country and, in my opinion, will win the national championship. But they won't do it undefeated.

And then there was baseball. It seems like someone does actually want to make the National League playoffs. Both the Mets and the Brewers - two teams fighting for their playoff lives - got walk-off hits (a shot down the line by Reyes for the Mets and a grand slam by Braun for Milwaukee) to put their teams one step closer to the postseason. At the end of the night, the Phillies cling onto a one-game lead over the Mets. The Mets and Brewers are tied for the wild card. If you're at all interested in baseball, stay tuned this weekend; it should be fun to watch.