Mock Draft: Picks 11-16

I could barely get the tags in trying to do 10 at a time, so I'm going to do six here, and then two more sets of eight. Oh, and Todd McShay released a new mock draft today, and I'm sure Kiper will release one before Saturday. I don't care; if Tyler and I can't change our picks before them, then neither can Kiper and McShay in my book. Anyway ...

11. Buffalo Bills

Herman: Brandon Pettigrew (TE, Oklahoma State)

Radecki: Brandon Pettigrew

Kiper: Robert Ayers (DE, Tennessee)

McShay: Aaron Maybin (De/LB, Penn State)

Wright: Brandon Pettigrew

- Notes: Tyler, Wright and I both think the Bills will take the only sure-fire tight end in the draft. Kiper and McShay have Buffalo going with a pass rusher. You'll see how far they think Pettigrew will fall if he doesn't get taken here. 

12. Denver Broncos

Herman: Tyson Jackson (DE, Louisiana State)

Radecki: Tyson Jackson

Kiper: Tyson Jackson

McShay: Tyson Jackson

Wright: B.J. Raji

- Notes: Everyone except Wright thinks that Tyson Jackson is the perfect player in this spot for the Broncos, a true 3-4 defensive end. Wright, meanwhile, thinks the Broncos would go for B.J. Raji, whom the other four had going three spots earlier.

13. Washington Redskins

Herman: Andre Smith (OT, Alabama)

Radecki: Brian Cushing (OLB, USC)

Kiper: Mark Sanchez (QB, USC)

McShay: Robert Ayers

Wright: Aaron Maybin

- Notes: It figures that the Redskins would be the first team that every single person disagreed upon. I had Andre Smith falling this far, and the Redskins need tackle help. McShay, Wright and Tyler all banked on the fact the Redskins would want to help their defense off the edge. Kiper was the only one with Sanchez left on his board, and he figured the Redskins would take the risk here. 

14. New Orleans Saints

Herman: Brian Cushing

Radecki: Malcolm Jenkins (CB, Ohio State)

Kiper: Chris "Beanie" Wells (RB, Ohio State)

McShay: Chris "Beanie" Wells

Wright: Malcolm Jenkins

- Notes: The Saints need help in the secondary, hence the Beanie Wells picks. They also need help at linebacker, though, and Cushing is the real deal. I would be surprised if the Saints continued to stockpile offensive players, but I suppose that's why they pay Mel Kiper and Todd McShay and not me. 

15. Houston Texans

Herman: Robert Ayers

Radecki: Clay Matthews (OLB, USC)

Kiper: Brian Cushing

McShay: Brian Cushing

Wright: Clay Matthews

- Notes: Once again, I was the odd man out. This time, it was because I didn't see the Texans taking an outside linebacker from USC. I just think with Ayers still on the board, the Texans will want to stabilize the other defensive end position across from Mario Williams.

16. San Diego Chargers

Herman: Malcolm Jenkins 

Radecki: Aaron Maybin

Kiper: Rey Maualuga (ILB, USC)

McShay: Malcolm Jenkins

Wright: Brian Cushing

- Notes: This was the pick where everyone dumped off the players still on their board that they figured should be off by now. McShay and I still had Jenkins, Aaron Maybin was hanging around for Tyler, and Brian Cushing was still there for Wright. Kiper, meanwhile, starts the Maualuga watch - he could go anywhere from here until the end of the first round. 

A Good Move, A Bad Move, and a Risky Move

It's NFL off-season time. More specifically, it's NFL franchising time. Before free agency begins at 12:01 AM on February 27th, teams across the league have been slapping the franchise tag on some of their best players. For those of you unfamiliar, placing the franchise tag on a player means:

1. The player gets a one year deal, valued at the average of the top 5 paid players at his position.

2. The player is forced to accept the deal.

3. Each team can only use one franchise deal per year.

4. If a player gets franchised two years in a row, his salary for the second year will be valued at 120% of his value the first year.

5. A player can not be franchised more than two years in a row. 

Players typically don't like it because they want long-term deals with fat signing bonuses at the beginning of them. Here's a look at three players who have recently had the franchise tag placed on them by their respective teams:

Darren Sproles - RB - San Diego Chargers - $6.62 million in 2009

For Sproles: Scary Move ...  Sproles knows now that he is "the guy" in San Diego - at least for one year. He is still sort of an unknown commodity; if you remember, he really only came on at the end of last season into the playoffs. Even if he plays well this year, his contract now won't increase, and unless his production is off-the-charts, his pay will likely decrease after this year. 

For Chargers: Bad Move ... I understand wanting to keep Sproles around, especially with the uncertainty surrounding LaDainian Tomlinson and his future in San Diego. Simply put, though, they overpaid him. These small, speedster-type guys are often injury-prone, and teams can scheme against him. Despite what we saw in the playoffs, I am very comfortable in telling you that Darren Sproles is not the third best running back in the NFL. 

Terrell Suggs - DE/LB - Baltimore Ravens - $10.20 million in 2009

For Suggs: Good Move ... Why wouldn't this be a good move for Suggs? Not only is he getting paid off the charts because of the 120% rule, but it guarantees that he is going to be given a long-term deal after this year. Even if he gets injured, he is completely proven. Every single team in the NFL would want to pay Terrell Suggs.

For Ravens: Good Move ... They may be overpaying him slightly, but it's a good move for the Ravens because it got Suggs out of the way. They can now focus their time and energy to resigning Ray Lewis and Jason Brown to multi-year deals. 

Matt Cassel - QB - New England Patriots - $14.65 million in 2009

For Cassel: Bad Move ... When the Patriots did this, they guaranteed Cassel that one of two things were going to happen. He now knows he either going to be traded before the season begins, or he's going to be Tom Brady's backup again in New England this year. Even if the latter is true, he knows he will be signing a long-term deal next year with someone. All this did for Cassel was put off the inevitable. 

For Patriots: Good Move ... They guaranteed themselves Cassel if Brady is not ready to start the season. It'll be a great move if they're sure Brady will be ready to go. Then, they can dump Cassel and his high number on some other team, and pick up boat-loads of draft picks so they can start a new dynasty. Leave it to New England. 

Steelers vs. Chargers Preview

Next Sunday the San Diego Chargers will travel to Pittsburgh, PA to take on the AFC North Champion Pittsburgh Steelers in a rematch of a week eleven 11-10 Steelers win. If the Chargers want to upset the Steelers next week, here is what they have to do:

Get pressure on Ben Roethlisberger. In their previous matchup, the Chargers got to Roethlisberger a total of 4 times. They will have to not only repeat their performance, but improve on it. Roethlisberger completed 31 of 41 pass attempts for 308 yards and moved the ball on the Chargers' defense all game long. He had plently of time on the majority of his throws and he did not turn the ball over once. The 31st-ranked pass defense of the Chargers will have to step up in the cold Pittsburgh weather and cover Roethlisberger's numerous weapons - Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, Mewelde Moore, Nate Washington (not to mention backup tight end Matt Spaeth, who had 6 catches in week 11 with Miller sidelined with an injury). The 3-4 defense will have to bring pressure and bring it often. In the wildcard matchup with the Colts, the Chargers sacked Peyton Manning a mere one time (though it was an important sack). They allowed 310 passing yards to the Colts' QB and NFL MVP, even though the Colts had a 2:1 pass-run ratio and one of the worst rushing attacks in the league. Which leads to my next key for the Chargers.

Stop the Steelers running game. It is no secret that the Steelers want to run the ball. They averaged 105.6 yards a game during the regular season, but torched the Browns defense for 176 yards in the week 17 blowout. In that game, Willie Parker finally looked like his old self and Mewelde Moore continued to prove why he was an excellent pickup with 33 total yards (6 yards per touch). In week 11, Parker had 115 yards rushing on 25 carries. The Steelers dominated time of possession because of their adequate rushing attack. The Chargers are going to have to stop the running game so that their pass rushers can tee off on the Steelers pourous pass protection and force turnovers. If the Steelers can run the ball at will, it will be a long day for the Chargers defense.

Avoid 3rd and long. With Landanian Tomlinson most likely out with an injury (at best, he plays, but is nowhere near 100% percent, and likely not used much, if at all), the Chargers will look to tiny Darren Sproles to handle the load. He did an outstanding job in the wild card game, but the Colts' rush defense is near the bottom of the league; the Steelers were 2nd in the NFL in rush defense. The Chargers will have to use Sporles, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates (even if he is not 100%) to manage each set of downs. 3rd and long is a bad idea against the #1 defense in the NFL. In situations where the Chargers will be forced to pass, Steelers defensive coordinator will bring anyone and everyone at the NFL's #1 rated passer in Phillip Rivers. Rivers was ineffective in the week 11 meeting, completing 15 of 26 passes for zero touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He cannot afford to be turnover prone on Sunday. James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley - the Steelers' franchise record holders for most sacks by 2 players in one season - are due for big games; if Rivers is faced with numerous 3rd and longs, Woodley and Harrison will be running at Rivers all game long. To avoid long 3rd downs, look for the Chargers to utilize the draw play - the kyrptonite of an over-aggressive defense. Tashard Choice of the Cowboys and Kevin Faulk of the Patriots used the draw plays to great success, and other teams are beginning to use these kind of plays (along with screens) to force the defense into over-pursuing. Sproles' speed will be key in these kind of plays. He's fast enough to get open quickly and run free after the catch. Look for the Steelers to have Troy Polamalu somewhat shadow him throughout the game - he may be the only player on defense quick enough to shut him down.


If the Steelers want to play in the AFC Championship game, the following themes will be very important:

Limit the turnovers. I'm looking at you, Big Ben. Ben has a knack for turnovers, given his nature of trying to make a big play as much as possible. He's finally learning to check down to his running backs, a trait that greatly cuts down on the interceptions. In week 11, Ben was more than fine - he passed for more than 300 yards and made plays all game long. He will need a repeat performance, especially if the running game never materializes. He has to be smart with the football and take what the defense gives him. The offensive line will have to give him time to throw and Bruce Arians has to gameplan effectively. He has to get Roethlisberger in a rhythm early on with short passes out of the bunch formation and he has to get Heath Miller involved. If Roethlisberger can get in a rhythm, he is tough to stop. He is less turnover-prone when he is throwing the ball short with safe patterns. Note: This is assuming Ben is healthy enough to play, and I think he will be.

The old Willie Parker needs to show up. He did in week 11 and he certainly did against the Browns just one week ago. He needs to repeat his performances and a 100-yard day from him would be a huge boost to the offense. Hopefully, Mewelde Moore gets some touches (most likely receptions) to change things up and give Parker a break. A healthy Parker is an effective Parker. A solid running game will keep pressure off of Roethlisberger, which will lead to a relaxed offense.

Score touchdowns, not field goals. The Steelers dominated in every statistical category in the week 11 matchup, but could not punch the ball into the endzone. Field goals and a timely safety were the only points for the Steelers. The red-zone offense has to improve. In the playoffs, field goals will not win games. Touchdowns do. The red-zone deficiencies can be attributed to a bad offensive line and running game. Goal-line stands by opposing defenses are nothing new for Steelers fans. That will have to change. The offensive line will have to dig deep as does Willie Parker. Look for Gary Russell to get some goal-line carries in an effort to punch the ball in.

Final prediction: Steelers 24, Chargers 17