Coming into this season, most people predicted the following for the AFC North: the Ravens and Steelers battling for 1st place all season, led by their elite defenses. The Bengals would finish 3rd but play decently and the Browns would finish in 4th, like usual.5 weeks in, the only prediction that is looking accurate is the fact that the Browns are one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Right now, the Bengals are in first place in the AFC North after beating the Ravens in Baltimore. Yes, in Baltimore. One of the toughest places to win the NFL. They're now 4-1 and would be 5-0 if not for a fluke hail mary. The strangest part of it is that the Bengals have done it behind a 9th-ranked defense (points-wise). This past weekend, they shut down the explosive Ravens offense. They held Joe Flacco to 186 yards passing on 22 completions. The Ravens rushing game was neutralized and they forced turnovers at key moments. And, oh yea, Carson Palmer led yet another last-second, game-winning drive.
The Bengals are looking legitimate right now. They have a good defense, a good running game, and a clutch quarterback. It's early, but you have to respect a 4-1 record and a road win at Baltimore.
Behind them, the Ravens and Steelers are facing some pretty big issues. Both teams are 3-2. Both teams' offenses are showing serious signs of being elite. The big problem for both teams? The defense. Yes, the defense. For the two teams that take pride in having a defense at the top of the league, it's a surprise to see both teams so beatable.
A close examination of both defenses shows that the secondaries of each team are terrible. The Ravens are giving up passing yards like crazy and even gave up a 100-yard rusher for the first time since a Bush was in the White House. Their rush defense is the same it's always been: elite. But they're 25th against the pass. It's a problem area and the Ravens know it. Is it because of Rex Ryan jumping ship? Is it just poor players? The pass rush not getting there quick enough? Whatever it is, the Ravens must fix it soon. They play the Vikings this weekend and have a brutal schedule the rest of the year.
The Steelers are in a similar situation. They're only 14th against the pass, but they're struggling on third down and are still giving up some big plays - especially in the fourth quarter. Since week one, the defense has collapsed in the fourth quarter. Their stats don't look too bad at first glance because they played so well in the first three quarters against Chicago, San Diego, and Cinciannti. But in the fourth quarter of those games, they gave up tons of yards and against the Bears and Bengals, they lost the game in the final seconds due to poor defense. This past Sunday against Detroit, they had tons of sacks and even had an interception, but still gave up tons of yardage and overall was unimpressive. Luckily, Lamarr Woodley and James Harrison combined for 4.5 sacks and were able to hold off a late Lions comback.
But still, the trend is troubling. In key moments, the Steelers defense is giving up big plays and not creating turnovers. Statistically, they're the 5th best defense in yards against. But any Steelers fan will tell you that there are problems. The root of the problems? Two words: Troy Polamalu. The last four weeks have shown just how important he is to that defense. Without him, the secondary is average at best. They have no depth at safety. Without him, they have to drop Woodley into coverage much more to make up for all the ground Tyrone Carter can't cover in Polamalu's place. Without him, they lose their biggest playmaker and turnover machine.
Luckily for the Steelers, Polamalu comes back next week to face the Browns. If he's 100% healthy, the Steelers defense could return to form, which would mean bad, bad things for the NFL. Their offense is lighting teams up through the air (Ben Roethlisberger leads the NFL in completion % at 73.5%) and they may have found a decent running back in Rashard Mendenhall. Still, they have a lot of questions to answer. Will Polamalu be healthy? Will the defense step it up in the fourth quarter? Can Ben keep it up? Is Mendenhall for real?
No matter what, the matchups between the Ravens and Steelers will be very, very interesting. Even if they are shootouts. And even if they are for second place in the AFC North.
